Is “The Big One” Coming to SoCal? Six Earthquakes in One Week
updated: Jun 18, 2024
In recent days, Southern California has been experiencing a series of earthquakes.
On May 31, Ojai was hit by a 3.6 magnitude quake. Two quakes of similar magnitude struck under El Sereno in East Los Angeles, and another three occurred near Newport Beach and Costa Mesa.
Potential Arrival of the Big One
While these recent quakes are significantly weaker than historic ones like the 6.7 magnitude Northridge Earthquake of 1994, which caused an estimated $20 billion in damage and killed over 57 people, they raise concerns about the potential arrival of the so-called Big One in a state with numerous active fault lines.
The infamous 800-mile-long San Andreas Fault, which runs from near the Mexico border, east past Los Angeles, and up the coast north of Sacramento, is a particular worry.
60 Percent Chance of Magnitude 6.7
Major quakes occur along this fault approximately every 180 years, yet it hasn’t seen a powerful one since 1906.
The US Geological Survey estimates there is a 60 percent chance of a magnitude 6.7 or greater quake hitting the Los Angeles area in the next 30 years.
Overdue for a Big Earthquake
Even more concerning is the Cascadia Subduction Zone, stretching from Northern California to British Columbia, Canada, which is overdue for a significant earthquake based on historical averages.
So, do the recent earthquakes signal something larger? Are they just routine in a state that experiences about 35 quakes a day?
DTLA & OC
The El Sereno quakes, for instance, occurred just beneath the Puente Hills thrust fault, which runs under downtown Los Angeles and Orange County.
This fault angles like a ramp, coming closest to the surface near the LA campus of the University of Southern California.
Ten Times the Intensity
An earthquake here could amplify the intensity up to ten times more than in areas located on bedrock.
The Newport Beach-Costa Mesa quakes occurred near the Compton thrust fault, which could raise the LA River by up to 5 feet in a strong quake, severely impacting city sewer systems.
San Andreas Fault – Sparsely Populated
Geologists note that there have been six quakes above magnitude 7 along this fault in the last 12,000 years.
Scientists emphasize that instead of focusing solely on the magnitude of the largest quakes, it’s crucial to consider the potential damage to densely populated areas. The San Andreas Fault, despite its notoriety, largely runs through sparsely populated desert regions.
Significant Damage
“In some respects, the ‘big one’ in terms of damages and deaths would be ones running through town rather than one that’s a long distance away,” Dr. Pat Abbott, professor emeritus of geology at San Diego State University, told KSWB last year.
He highlighted major quakes like the 1857 and 1906 San Andreas earthquakes and the 1994 Northridge earthquake, all of which were below the 8.0 magnitude considered in “Big One” scenarios but still caused significant damage.
Difficult to Predict Exact Earthquakes
The California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services website states, “Unfortunately, earthquake prediction remains an extremely challenging endeavor. While scientists can monitor fault lines and detect patterns of seismic activity, they cannot predict exact earthquakes reliably.”
Instead, scientists focus on long-term probability to help high-risk areas prepare for the possibility of a major quake.
“Holy Grail” of Earthquake Science
For example, the USGS estimates a 72 percent chance of a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake hitting the San Francisco Bay Area within the next 30 years.
Achieving a higher level of precise prediction is considered the “holy grail” of earthquake science, according to University of Washington seismologist Harold Tobin.
Not Yet There
“Science has not yet found a way to make actionable earthquake predictions,” Tobin wrote last year.
“A useful prediction would specify a time, a place and a magnitude – and all of these would need to be fairly specific, with enough advance notice to be worthwhile.”
Preparedness is Key
Until such precise predictive methods are developed, governments can enhance preparedness through measures like digital alert systems, practice drills, and building retrofits.
Meanwhile, individual citizens should have emergency kits ready and follow safety protocols, such as dropping to their knees, covering their head and neck, and holding onto something stable when an earthquake starts.
MAJOR FAULT LINE OFF WEST COAST COULD TRIGGER 9-MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE
Daily Mail, June 2024
An underwater fault line along the US West Coast could trigger a megaquake that would be more devastating than California’s ‘Big One,’ a new study suggests. Using underwater mapping techniques, scientists have mapped the Cascadia Subduction Zone – a 600-mile fault line extending from southern Canada to northern California – in never before seen detail.
It has revealed that the fault splits into four segments instead of being one continuous strip like most fault lines. The discovery could prove more catastrophic because the tectonic plates can slide under each other, creating more pressure and more severe earthquakes. The researchers concluded the Cascadia Subduction Zone has the potential to unleash a nine-plus magnitude quake. California’s San Andreas is poised for an up to 8.3-magnitude quake, for comparison.
If an earthquake of over 9 magnitude struck the West Coast US it could generate tsunamis reaching 100 feet high or more, kill more than 10,000 people and cause over $80 billion in damages in just Oregon and Washington alone. Disaster emergency plans in Oregon and Washington warn that in the aftermath of a quake that big, they could face a wave of long-term deaths due to disease from exposure to dead bodies, animal carcasses, contaminated water and Hazmat spills from commercial, industrial and household sources.
A similar fault zone off the coast of Japan erupted in 2011, creating a magnitude 9 quake that caused a devastating tsunami to strike the country , killing nearly 20,000 people. Now scientists are worried that a similar calamity could impact the US in the coming years, reporting that quakes caused by Cascadia occur roughly every 500 years, with the last one taking place in 1700. ‘The recurrent interval for this subduction zone for big events is on the order of 500 years,’ Wang said.
‘It’s hard to know exactly when it will happen, but certainly, if you compare this to other subduction zones, it is quite late.’ Cascadia’s four segments make it more dangerous than other major fault lines because they have different rock and sediment, with the most concerning section extending along northern Oregon , into Washington and southern British Columbia.
‘It requires a lot more study, but for places like Tacoma and Seattle, it could mean the difference between alarming and catastrophic,’ said study co-author Harold Tobin, a geophysicist at the University of Washington. This section of Cascadia is flatter and smoother than the other three sections, meaning it could cause the largest earthquakes, extending further into the US and impacting all of Washington’s coastal communities . ‘We have the potential for earthquakes and tsunamis as large as the biggest ones we’ve experienced on the planet,’ Tobin told NBC News.
‘Cascadia seems capable of generating a magnitude nine or a little smaller or a little bigger.’ Suzanne Carbotte, the study’s lead author and marine geophysicist at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, said this is the first clear picture of the Cascadia zone, adding that all emergency response models are based on ‘old, low-quality 1980s-era data.’
The researchers hope their findings help states in the impact zone prepare for a worst-case scenario emergency response and evacuation if the Cascadia Subduction Zone ruptures. Neither Oregon nor Washington state is sufficiently prepared for this type of disaster because of the limited information in the 1980s Cascadia model, according to the researchers. However, they said new preparedness assessments could be published as early as next year. The subduction zone map was created using active source seismic imaging – which emits sounds down to the ocean floor and processes the echoes – that gives a sharper insight into how it can impact the surrounding area.
Researchers at the Columbia Climate School attached a streamer – a nine-mile-long cable – to the back of the boat which used 1,200 hydrophones that captured the echoes to update their ocean acoustic tomography models that provide images of the fault. Hydrophones measure the amount of time it takes for sound to bounce off the structures on the ocean’s floor and reach the surface, allowing them to detect the differences in the elevation of rocks that signify recently active fault lines. ‘The accuracy and this resolution is truly unprecedented. And it’s an amazing data set,’ Kelin Wang, a research scientist at the Geological Survey of Canada who was not involved in the study, told NBC News . ‘It just allows us to do a better job to assess the risk and have information for the building codes and zoning.’
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Ye are my witnesses, saith the Lord, and my servant whom I have chosen: that ye may know and believe me, and UNDERSTAND THAT I AM HE: before me there was no God formed, neither shall there be after me.
Isaiah 52:6 Therefore my people shall know my name: therefore THEY SHALL KNOW IN THAT DAY THAT I AM HE THAT DOTH SPEAK: BEHOLD, IT IS I.
Luke 21:28 And WHEN THESE THINGS BEGIN TO COME TO PASS, THEN LOOK UP, AND LIFT UP YOUR HEADS; FOR YOUR REDEMPTION DRAWETH NIGH.
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In His Service,
Night Watchman
Paul Rolland
Night Watchman Ministries
https://nightwatchmanministries.substack.com
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