Natural Disasters Australia 2024: Under climate change, catastrophic bushfires in Australia can strike any time
Story by David Bowman
Victorians were braced for the worst on Wednesday amid soaring temperatures and gusty winds, creating the state’s worst fire conditions in years. Authorities have declared a “catastrophic” fire risk in some parts of the state.
At the time of writing, the Bayindeen bushfire near Ballarat was still burning out of control, almost a week after it began. It had razed 21,300 hectares, destroyed six homes and killed livestock. And more than 30,000 people in high-risk areas between Ballarat and Ararat had reportedly been told to leave their homes.
This statewide emergency is noteworthy for several reasons. First, it represent a big test of Australia’s updated fire danger rating system. The new version adopted in 2022 dictates that if a fire takes hold under catastrophic conditions, people should leave an area rather than shelter in place or stay defend their homes.
The second point to note is the timing: late February, when many Australians probably thought the worst of the bushfire season was over. Climate change is bringing not just more frequent and severe fires, but longer fire seasons. That means we must stay on heightened alert for much longer than in the past.
Under catastrophic conditions, leave
The current Australian Fire Danger Rating System was implemented in September 2022. It’s a nationally consistent system based on the latest scientific research.
Authorities hope the system will more accurately predict fire danger. It was also designed to more clearly communicate the danger rating to the public. For example, it involves just four danger ratings, compared to the previous six under the old Victorian regime.
“Catastrophic” fire danger—previously “code red” in Victoria—represents the worst conditions. The main message for the public under these conditions is:
“If a fire starts and takes hold, lives are likely to be lost. For your survival leave bushfire risk areas.”
Under catastrophic conditions, people are advised to move to a safer location early in the morning or even the day before. Authorities warn “homes cannot withstand fires in these conditions. You may not be able to leave, and help may not be available”.
Lessons from Black Saturday
Australia’s previous fire danger rating system was developed in the 1960s and was formally known as the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index. It initially comprised five risk levels ranging from low-moderate to extreme. However, states were free to adapt the system to their needs, including adding extra categories.
The devastating 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria killed 173 people. Many people died after staying to defend their properties.
The tragedy prompted scrutiny of the fire danger ratings system in Victoria, and the “code red” category was added. The message under those conditions was that those living in a bushfire-prone area should leave. The first code red was declared in 2010, then another in 2019.
That system was replaced by the national system in 2022.
Don’t stay and defend
Under the current fire danger rating system, catastrophic conditions mean everyone should leave an area. The leave orders currently issued in Victoria cover many thousands of people, and represent a big test of this advice.
We don’t yet know how many people will heed the advice of authorities. However, at least some people have reportedly decided to stay and defend their properties.
If thousands of others do flee, what will result? Will rural roads be blocked? Do we have the infrastructure to temporarily house all those evacuees? Whether or not the fire situation escalates on Wednesday, there will be much to learn about how we deal with such threats.
Certainly, it’s prudent for people in high-risk areas to leave. In hot, windy conditions, a fire could erupt and take hold in minutes. The collapse of electricity transmission towers in Victoria last week showed the vulnerability of such infrastructure in high winds. It doesn’t take long for downed power lines to ignite the surrounding bush.
Is there a potential alternative to the mass relocation of people in response to a major fire risk? Yes: building communities that are sufficiently fire-proofed to withstand catastrophic fire weather.
This could be achieved through adaptation measures such as building fire bunkers and specially-designed houses. It would also involve carefully managed bushland and creating fire breaks by planting non-flammable plants. It may also include targeted cultural burning by Traditional Owners. These options require further discussion and research.
Our fire seasons are getting longer
The current emergency in Victoria shows how Australia’s fire seasons are changing.
It’s late February and summer is almost over. The kids are back at school and the adults are back at work. It seemed southeast Australia had escaped the bad fire summer that many had feared. Few people expected this late-season emergency.
But as climate change escalates, we must expect the unexpected. In a fire-prone continent such as Australia, we can never relax in a warming world. We must be in a constant, heightened state of preparedness.
That means know your risk and prepare your home. Draw up a bushfire survival plan—think about details such as what to do with pets and who will check on vulnerable neighbors. And please, heed the advice of authorities.
Climate extremes in Australia: New report analyzes major events of 2023
Story by Science X staff
Scientists and researchers at the ARC Center of Excellence for Climate Extremes have today released “The State of Weather and Climate Extremes 2023” report. The report, co-written by more than 30 of Australia’s leading climate scientists, including many of the Center’s early career researchers, is designed to help decision makers and the general public understand the complexity of climate extremes.
Professor Andy Pitman, Director of the ARC Center of Excellence for Climate Extremes, said, “Over the last few years we’ve been pulling extremes together into a narrative that provides a one-stop shop of what happened in the year.
“It’s about packaging the information up in a digestible form to help people understand what’s going on in our environment.”
The report provides a description of each event and its impacts as well as an explanation which reflects scientists’ understanding of the causes.
“What was unusual about 2023 is how intense some of these events were and how they kept pushing records,” Pitman said.
While it’s challenging to determine the cause of specific extreme events, Pitman said that they seemed to be happening with increased frequency in 2023.
“Some of them were occurring one after the other or close to each other. These temporally and spatially compounding events had a substantial impact on our environment and were difficult for us to deal with.”
The influence of climate drivers such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole as well as the evolution of rainfall and temperature throughout the year were also assessed in the report.
The year began with above-average rainfall in northern Australia progressing to increasingly dry conditions in southern and eastern Australia in late winter and spring, when El Niño was declared.
Against expectations, above average rainfall was observed in December across much of eastern Australia, particularly in Northern Queensland, where residents were impacted by the intense flooding caused by Cyclone Jasper.
“We can easily get the impression that natural climate drivers such as El Niño are the dominant cause of what we observed in 2023 but that’s not true. El Niño does not guarantee that eastern Australia will be hot and dry, rather it influences the probability of hotter and drier conditions,” Pitman said.
Overall, 2023 was the eighth hottest year on record in Australia, with temperatures 0.98°C above the 1961–1990 average. Winter was the warmest on record since observations began in 1910, and September was the driest ever recorded.
Globally, 2023 marked the hottest year on record and a year of extremes. Canada’s wildfire season in June was unprecedented with 18.4 million hectares burned, and the heat waves over Europe contributed to many national and global temperature records tumbling in July. The report provides an overview of some international events that took place in 2023.
“There’s plenty of places around the world where events are becoming hard to survive,” Pitman said.
“What scientists bring to the table is more and more evidence of what we already know. We need to act based upon observations and existing knowledge. The actions are straightforward: Stop emitting carbon and invest heavily in adaptation.”
As for what will happen in terms of extreme events in 2024, this remains uncertain, Pitman said.
“2024 appears to be leaning towards a weak El Niño or more neutral La Niña conditions. It is likely to be a warm year. However, how extreme events will be expressed regionally over Australia is hard to predict.”
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In His Service,
Night Watchman
Paul Rolland
Night Watchman Ministries
Make Your (7) Decision for Christ NOW!!!!!!! Time is Up!!!!!!!
Jesus Christ’s Offer of Salvation:
The ABCs (7) of Salvation through Jesus Christ (the Lamb)
- (7) Admit/Acknowledge/Accept that you are sinner. Ask (7) God’s forgiveness and repent of your sins.
. . . “For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God.” (Romans 3:23).
. . . “As it is written, There is none righteous, no, not one.” (Romans 3:10).
. . . “If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is not in us.” (1 John 1:8).
B. Believe Jesus is Lord. Believe that (7) Jesus Christ is who He claimed to (7) be; that He was both fully God (7) and fully man and that we are (7) saved through His death, burial, and resurrection. (7) Put your trust in Him as your (7) only hope of salvation. Become a son (7) or daughter of God by receiving Christ. (7777777) 7×7
. . . “That whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have eternal life. For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life. For God sent not his son into the world to condemn the world; but that the world through him might be saved. (John 3:15-17). For whosoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved.” (Romans 10:13).
C. Call upon His name, Confess (7) with your heart and with your lips (7) that Jesus is your Lord and Savior.
. . . “That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved. For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation.” (Romans 10:9-10).
. . . “If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is not in us. If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness. If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is not in us.” (John 1:8-10).
. . . “And he is the propitiation for our sins: and not for ours only, but also for the sins of the whole world. (John 2:2).
. . . “In this was manifested the love of god toward us, because that God sent his only begotten Son into the world, that we might live through him. And we have seen and do testify that the Father sent the Son to be the Saviour of the world. Whosoever shall confess that Jesus is the Son of God, God dwelleth in him, and he in God.” (1 John 4:9, 14-15).
. . . “But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Much more then, being now justified by his blood, we shall be saved from wrath through him. For if, when we were enemies, we were reconciled to God by the death of his Son, much more, being reconciled, we shall be saved by his life.” (Romans 5:8-10).
. . . “For the wages of sin is death; but the gift of God is eternal life through Jesus Christ our Lord.” (Romans 6:23).
. . . “Jesus saith unto them, I am the way, the truth, and the life, no man cometh unto the Father, but by me.” (John 14:6).
. . . “For I am not ashamed of the gospel of Christ: for it is the power of God unto salvation to everyone that believeth.” (Romans 1:16).
. . . “Neither is there salvation in any other: for there is none other name under heaven given among men, whereby we must be saved.” (Acts: 4:12).
. . . “Who will have all men to be saved, and to come unto the knowledge of the truth for there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus.” (1 Timothy 2:4-6).
. . . “For God did not appoint us to suffer wrath but to receive salvation through our Lord Jesus Christ.” (1 Thessalonians 5:9).
. . . “But as many as received him, to them gave the power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name.” (John 1:12).
True Church / Bride of Christ Spared from God’s Wrath:
Romans 5:8-10. “But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Much more then, being now justified by his blood, we shall be saved from wrath through him. For if, when we were enemies, we were reconciled to God by the death of his Son, much more, being reconciled, we shall be saved by his life.”
Romans 12:19. Dearly beloved, avenge not yourselves, but rather give place unto wrath: for it is written, Vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord.
1 Thessalonians 1:10. And to wait for his Son from heaven, whom he raised from the dead, even Jesus, which delivered us from the wrath to come.
1 Thessalonians 5:9. For God hath not appointed us to wrath, but to obtain salvation by our Lord Jesus Christ,
Romans 8:35. Who shall separate us from the love of Christ? shall tribulation, or distress, or persecution, or famine, or nakedness, or peril, or sword?
Jeremiah 30:7. Alas! for that day is great, so that none is like it: it is even the time of Jacob’s trouble, but he shall be saved out of it.
Revelation 3:10 Because thou hast kept the word of my patience, I also will keep thee from the hour of temptation, which shall come upon all the world, to try them that dwell upon the earth.