Hurricane Update

Tropical Storm “Eloise” forecast to strike Madagascar and Mozambique. 5th (5) named storm of the 2020/21 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season

Tropical Storm “Eloise” forecast to strike Madagascar and Mozambique. 5th (5) named storm of the 2020/21 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season

Posted by Teo Blašković on January 18, 2021 Watchers.news

Tropical Storm “Eloise” formed on January 15, 2021, as the 5th named storm of the 2020/21 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season. The cyclone is moving toward Madagascar. A landfall at tropical cyclone intensity on January 19 remains a real possibility, although less likely based on the latest guidance. Eloise is expected to reintensify after it exits into the Mozambique Channel and strike Mozambique on January 23.

Key messages on associated hazards over Madagascar:

Heavy rains – this is the main danger associated with this system.

Strong winds

Wave and storm surge

At 06:00 UTC on January 18, the center of Moderate Tropical Storm “Eloise” was located about 700 km (434 miles) E of Sambava, Madagascar, and 660 km (410 miles) N of Port Louis, Mauritius. It was moving WSW at 26 km/h (16 mph).

The system had 10-minute sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph), maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph), and gusts to 100 km/h (65 mph). Its minimum central barometric pressure was 994 hPa. 

The thunderstorm activity was vigorous overnight with very cold cloud tops and bursts of lightning, RSMC La Reunion noted in their latest bulletin.

Over the next few days, the environmental conditions remain ambivalent. The easterly shear remains omnipresent with mid-troposphere dry air located in the eastern edge of the circulation, while the upper divergence remains good in the northwestern quadrant. In this context, a slow intensification of the system is expected in agreement with most numerical guidance.

From Monday evening, January 18 (LT), the shear constraint could ease off, first in the upper levels then at the mid-levels. Consequently, the development of Eloise could accelerate before landfall as suggested by some models. The degree of confidence in this intensity prediction is low, however.

Late Thursday, Eloise should come back overseas in the Mozambique Channel. A new intensification phase is awaited within conducive environmental conditions.

The system is expected to keep on heading west-south-westward on the north-western side of the low/mid-level subtropical ridge.

On Tuesday, January 19, the passage of a trough in the south will temporarily weaken the ridge and could drive a slight southwestward inflection of the track.

However, the ridge strengthens back up as soon as Wednesday which should prevent Eloise from significantly diving southwards. 

There is a risk of strong winds, floods, and storm surge over some coastal areas of eastern Madagascar mainly between Sambava to the north and Tamatave to the south.

A landfall at tropical cyclone intensity remains a real possibility, although less likely based on the latest guidance, the center said.

Key messages on associated hazards over Madagascar:

– Heavy rains: this is the main danger associated with this system.

Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate along the east coast of Madagascar late Monday night or Tuesday morning (LT).

Those heavy rains will then spread on Wednesday and Thursday inland along Eloise’s track and over a large part of the north-western regions of Madagascar, where the passage of Eloise is expected to enhance the monsoon rains.

Generalized rainfall amount up to 100 mm (4 inches) / 24h is expected in these areas reaching more than 200 mm (8 inches) / 24h in some places.

These heavy rains can generate flash floods, widespread flooding, and landslides.

– Strong winds: there is an increasing risk of strong winds with gusts up to 100 km/h (62 mph) that can cause damage to life and properties.

These strong winds could start to reach the coast Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night. Stronger winds are possible near the landfall area depending on the final system intensity at that time.

– Wave and storm surge: the swell associated with this system, very moderate at least initially at 2.50 – 3 m (8 – 10 feet), will start to affect a portion of coastal regions later tonight or tomorrow.

Based on the current intensity forecast and the associated uncertainties, the most likely scenario, for the time being, is based on a storm surge of less than 1 m (3.3 feet) along the potential landfall area.

Seven (7) References to ‘BE WATCHING or WATCHFUL.’

Matthew 24:42; Watch therefore: for ye know not what hour your Lord doth come.

Matthew 25:13; Watch therefore, for ye know neither the day nor the hour wherein the Son of man cometh.

Mark 13:35; Watch ye therefore: for ye know not when the master of the house cometh, at even, or at midnight, or at the cockcrowing, or in the morning.

Luke 21:36; Watch ye therefore, and pray always, that ye may be accounted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass, and to stand before the Son of man

Luke 12:37-39; Blessed are those servants, whom the lord when he cometh shall find watching: verily I say unto you, that he shall gird himself, and make them to sit down to meat, and will come forth and serve them. And if he shall come in the second watch, or come in the third watch, and find them so, blessed are those servants. And this know, that if the goodman of the house had known what hour the thief would come, he would have watched, and not have suffered his house to be broken through.

1 Thessalonians 5:2-4; For yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so cometh as a thief in the night. For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape. But ye, brethren, are not in darkness, that that day should overtake you as a thief. (Be Watching).

John 13:19 Now I tell you before it come, that, when it is come to pass, ye may believe that I am he.

John 14:29 And now I have told you before it come to pass, that, when it is come to pass, ye might believe.

Luke 21:31 So likewise ye, when ye see these things come to pass, know ye that the kingdom of God is nigh at hand.

Mark 13:29 So ye in like manner, when ye shall see these things come to pass, know that it is nigh, even at the doors.

Luke 21:28 And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh.

Revelation 1:1 The Revelation of Jesus Christ, which God gave unto him, to shew unto his servants things which must shortly come to pass; and he sent and signified it by his angel unto his servant John:

‘Increasing Like Labor Pains.’ ‘Fearful Sights.’ ‘Perilous Times.’ ‘Men’s hearts failing with fear.’ Great Convergence of Signs.’ REDEMPTION IMMINENT.

In His Service,

Night Watchman

Paul Rolland

Night Watchman Ministries

Make Your Decision for Christ NOW!!!!!!! Time is Up!!!!!!!

Jesus Christ’s Offer of Salvation:

The ABCs of Salvation through Jesus Christ (the Lamb)

A. Admit/Acknowledge/Accept that you are sinner. Ask God’s forgiveness and repent of your sins.

. . . “For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God.” (Romans 3:23).

. . . “As it is written, There is none righteous, no, not one.” (Romans 3:10).

. . . “If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is not in us.” (1 John 1:8).

B. Believe Jesus is Lord. Believe that Jesus Christ is who He claimed to be; that He was both fully God and fully man and that we are saved through His death, burial, and resurrection. Put your trust in Him as your only hope of salvation. Become a son or daughter of God by receiving Christ.

. . . “That whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have eternal life. For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life. For God sent not his son into the world to condemn the world; but that the world through him might be saved. (John 3:15-17). For whosoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved.” (Romans 10:13).

C. Call upon His name, Confess with your heart and with your lips that Jesus is your Lord and Savior.

. . . “That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved. For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation.” (Romans 10:9-10).

. . . “If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is not in us. If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness. If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is not in us.” (John 1:8-10).

. . . “And he is the propitiation for our sins: and not for ours only, but also for the sins of the whole world. (John 2:2).

. . . “In this was manifested the love of god toward us, because that God sent his only begotten Son into the world, that we might live through him. And we have seen and do testify that the Father sent the Son to be the Saviour of the world. Whosoever shall confess that Jesus is the Son of God, God dwelleth in him, and he in God.” (1 John 4:9, 14-15).

. . . “But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Much more then, being now justified by his blood, we shall be saved from wrath through him. For if, when we were enemies, we were reconciled to God by the death of his Son, much more, being reconciled, we shall be saved by his life.” (Romans 5:8-10).

. . . “For the wages of sin is death; but the gift of God is eternal life through Jesus Christ our Lord.” (Romans 6:23).

. . . “Jesus saith unto them, I am the way, the truth, and the life, no man cometh unto the Father, but by me.” (John 14:6).

. . . “For I am not ashamed of the gospel of Christ: for it is the power of God unto salvation to everyone that believeth.” (Romans 1:16).

. . . “Neither is there salvation in any other: for there is none other name under heaven given among men, whereby we must be saved.” (Acts: 4:12).

. . . “Who will have all men to be saved, and to come unto the knowledge of the truth for there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus.” (1 Timothy 2:4-6).

. . . “For God did not appoint us to suffer wrath but to receive salvation through our Lord Jesus Christ.” (1 Thessalonians 5:9).

. . . “But as many as received him, to them gave the power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name.” (John 1:12).

True Church / Bride of Christ Spared from God’s Wrath:

 Romans 5:8-10. “But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Much more then, being now justified by his blood, we shall be saved from wrath through him. For if, when we were enemies, we were reconciled to God by the death of his Son, much more, being reconciled, we shall be saved by his life.”

Romans 12:19. Dearly beloved, avenge not yourselves, but rather give place unto wrath: for it is written, Vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord.

1 Thessalonians 1:10. And to wait for his Son from heaven, whom he raised from the dead, even Jesus, which delivered us from the wrath to come.

1 Thessalonians 5:9. For God hath not appointed us to wrath, but to obtain salvation by our Lord Jesus Christ,

Romans 8:35. Who shall separate us from the love of Christ? shall tribulation, or distress, or persecution, or famine, or nakedness, or peril, or sword?

Jeremiah 30:7. Alas! for that day is great, so that none is like it: it is even the time of Jacob’s trouble, but he shall be saved out of it.

Revelation 3:10 Because thou hast kept the word of my patience, I also will keep thee from the hour of temptation, which shall come upon all the world, to try them that dwell upon the earth.

Categories: Hurricane Update

Leave a Reply