Increasing Global Economic Collapse, ‘Distress of Nations’; Unemployment claims slip below 1M but job losses remain high as Congress wrangles over more aid. Inching closer to 60 (6) million unemployment claims. Continuing unemployment claims remain at 15.5  (5)million in the week ending Aug. 1

Charisse Jones USA TODAY August 13, 2020

The number of Americans applying for unemployment dropped last week, slipping below 1 million for the first time since the economic shutdown sparked by the coronavirus pandemic began in the spring.

The number of new applications for benefits, a rough gauge of layoffs, declined to 963,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the second straight drop, from 1.2 million the previous week. And it’s the first time weekly claims have dipped below 1 million since the week ending March 14, with the figure sharply below the 1.25 million some economists expected

But while the downward slide is a welcome trend, it doesn’t mean the economy has rebounded. 

“Another larger-than-expected decline in jobless claims suggests that the jobs recovery is regaining some momentum,” Oxford Economics said in an investors note. “But with a staggering 28 million workers still claiming some form of jobless benefits, much labor market progress remains to be done.”

The latest stream of applications is still historic, dwarfing the previous all-time weekly high of 695,000 during another economic downturn in 1982. And the latest tally means a stunning 56.2 million Americans sought unemployment aid in just 21 weeks.

Did end of $600 discourage jobless claims?

The number of claims has ebbed and flowed in recent weeks, but stubbornly remained above 1 million until now, painting a stark picture of the financial toll the coronavirus pandemic has taken as businesses cut staff and consumers warily watch their spending.

While the lower number of first-time jobless claims last week may signal that more Americans are finding work or being rehired, it might also reflect fewer people applying for assistance now that an extra weekly federal benefit of $600 has ended.

“The expiration of the $600/week supplement to unemployment benefits … at the end of July may have made filing for benefits less attractive, leading to reduced filings,” Daniel Silver of J.P. Morgan said in an investors note.  

Continuing unemployment claims shrank to 15.5  (5)million in the week ending Aug. 1, their lowest level since the start of April, but that is still “historically high … underscoring the painfully slow recovery in the labor market,” Oxford said.

Unemployment hits Sunbelt

Unemployment slipped to 10.2% in July, down from 11.1% in June. But the economy continues to stumble through fits and starts, with hard-hit industries like hospitality and retail companies bolstering their staff in some parts of the country, while businesses in the Sunbelt cut jobs as the coronavirus spikes there.

It’s far too early to declare “mission accomplished,” Bankrate.com senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick said in an interview. “What we’re really doing is recovering some of the jobs lost.” 

Hospitals appear to be stabilizing after shedding jobs earlier in the pandemic due to a postponement of elective procedures, he noted. Dentist offices have also reopened after temporary closures, fueling some job gains.

But travel businesses like airlines and hotel companies are still sluggish, with business travel in particular slow to bounce back, he said.

Early signs that the outbreak is ebbing in key hot spots might also have partially fueled the improved numbers, Hamrick said.

“All told, I think people are trying to walk a delicate balancing act here between resuming as much of their economic activity as they feel is safe and warranted,” Hamrick said.

And the amount of shifts Americans are working is increasing just 0.5% a week on average in August. says Dave Gilbertson, vice president of strategy and operations for Kronos, a workforce management software company.  

“This indicates that while businesses may be recalling some furloughed employees, they continue to struggle to generate enough activity to return to full staffing capacity,” Gilbertson said in an emailed statement, “hindered by a combination of summer seasonality, statewide reopening pauses or reversals, and, in some sectors, below-average consumer demand.”

Congress stalled over $600 benefit

Meanwhile, the extra financial aid and protections extended to help out-of-work Americans weather the economic downturn remains in limbo, with Congress unable to sign off on a new aid package. And the encouraging jobless claims report could make more federal aid appear less necessary.

“If it was going to take a sense of urgency to get Democrats and Republicans to come to an agreement, the stock market trading right near record highs and jobless claims back below a million aren’t providing any ammunition,” Bespoke Investment Group analyst Paul Hickey wrote in an analysis Thursday.

Democrats want to reinstate the extra $600 through the end of the year while Republicans want to reduce it to $200 a week.

President Donald Trump issued a memorandum that would provide unemployed Americans with an additional $400 per week. But that will likely be pared back to $300 after states balked at the requirement that they kick in a quarter of the funding, a contribution they say they can’t afford as they deal with their own budget shortfalls.  

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Tuesday that the states won’t have to pay the additional $100 if they already provide at least that amount in jobless benefits, which most states do. Kudlow added that the checks should start going out in the next two weeks, but critics of the memorandum say that it may not be legal or even constitutional for Trump to bypass Congress and take such a step by executive action.

Could spending by shoppers slip?

Many businesses have also gone through the forgivable federal loans they received if they held onto or rehired their workers, leading to new rounds of layoffs.

Because those funds are running out, and Congress has not passed another financial assistance package “we may see a reversal in the gains in August,” Sophia Koropeckyj, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in an investors note. “Without this extra support, consumer spending will certainly weaken.”

A deal will probably eventually be reached, she says. But it will take more than money to get the economy going again. 

“We are still confident that Congress and the White House will rally to provide about $1.5 trillion in support,” she said. “Yet, until a vaccine is widely available we do not expect the economy and labor market can climb completely out of the hole… Indeed we expect the economy to barely eke out any gains until 2021.”

In His Service,

Night Watchman

Paul Rolland

Night Watchman Ministries

Make Your Decision for Christ NOW!!!!!!! Time is Up!!!!!!!

Jesus Christ’s Offer of Salvation:

The ABCs of Salvation through Jesus Christ (the Lamb)

A. Admit/Acknowledge/Accept that you are sinner. Ask God’s forgiveness and repent of your sins.

. . . “For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God.” (Romans 3:23).

. . . “As it is written, There is none righteous, no, not one.” (Romans 3:10).

. . . “If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is not in us.” (1 John 1:8).

B. Believe Jesus is Lord. Believe that Jesus Christ is who He claimed to be; that He was both fully God and fully man and that we are saved through His death, burial, and resurrection. Put your trust in Him as your only hope of salvation. Become a son or daughter of God by receiving Christ.

. . . “That whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have eternal life. For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life. For God sent not his son into the world to condemn the world; but that the world through him might be saved. (John 3:15-17). For whosoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved.” (Romans 10:13).

C. Call upon His name, Confess with your heart and with your lips that Jesus is your Lord and Savior.

. . . “That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved. For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation.” (Romans 10:9-10).

. . . “If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is not in us. If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness. If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is not in us.” (John 1:8-10).

. . . “And he is the propitiation for our sins: and not for ours only, but also for the sins of the whole world. (John 2:2).

. . . “In this was manifested the love of god toward us, because that God sent his only begotten Son into the world, that we might live through him. And we have seen and do testify that the Father sent the Son to be the Saviour of the world. Whosoever shall confess that Jesus is the Son of God, God dwelleth in him, and he in God.” (1 John 4:9, 14-15).

. . . “But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Much more then, being now justified by his blood, we shall be saved from wrath through him. For if, when we were enemies, we were reconciled to God by the death of his Son, much more, being reconciled, we shall be saved by his life.” (Romans 5:8-10).

. . . “For the wages of sin is death; but the gift of God is eternal life through Jesus Christ our Lord.” (Romans 6:23).

. . . “Jesus saith unto them, I am the way, the truth, and the life, no man cometh unto the Father, but by me.” (John 14:6).

. . . “For I am not ashamed of the gospel of Christ: for it is the power of God unto salvation to everyone that believeth.” (Romans 1:16).

. . . “Neither is there salvation in any other: for there is none other name under heaven given among men, whereby we must be saved.” (Acts: 4:12).

. . . “Who will have all men to be saved, and to come unto the knowledge of the truth for there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus.” (1 Timothy 2:4-6).

. . . “For God did not appoint us to suffer wrath but to receive salvation through our Lord Jesus Christ.” (1 Thessalonians 5:9).

. . . “But as many as received him, to them gave the power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name.” (John 1:12).

True Church / Bride of Christ Spared from God’s Wrath:

 Romans 5:8-10. “But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Much more then, being now justified by his blood, we shall be saved from wrath through him. For if, when we were enemies, we were reconciled to God by the death of his Son, much more, being reconciled, we shall be saved by his life.”

Romans 12:19. Dearly beloved, avenge not yourselves, but rather give place unto wrath: for it is written, Vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord.

1 Thessalonians 1:10. And to wait for his Son from heaven, whom he raised from the dead, even Jesus, which delivered us from the wrath to come.

1 Thessalonians 5:9. For God hath not appointed us to wrath, but to obtain salvation by our Lord Jesus Christ,

Romans 8:35. Who shall separate us from the love of Christ? shall tribulation, or distress, or persecution, or famine, or nakedness, or peril, or sword?

Jeremiah 30:7. Alas! for that day is great, so that none is like it: it is even the time of Jacob’s trouble, but he shall be saved out of it.

Revelation 3:10 Because thou hast kept the word of my patience, I also will keep thee from the hour of temptation, which shall come upon all the world, to try them that dwell upon the earth.