Pestilence Update

China pig farmer profits soar after disease wipes out third of herd, boosts prices

Blog note. Jesus indicated that ‘fearful sights’ (various natural disasters) would occur leading up to the time known as the Tribulation and Great Tribulation (a combined seven year period of great destruction on earth). Although these types of things have occurred in the past for centuries and thousands of years, they could be identified as the ‘season of the times’ due to the ferociousness of these events. They would be occurring in greater intensity, severity, frequency, size, duration, scope … just like the pains that a woman experiences in labor the farther along she is in the labor process. We are in the ‘season of the times’ that comes just before the seven (7) year Tribulation/Great Tribulation period


… And great earthquakes shall be in diverse places, and famines, and pestilences; and fearful sights and great signs shall there be from heaven. (Luke 21:11).


… And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring; (Luke 21:25)


… Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken; (Luke 21:26)


… This know also, that in the last days perilous times shall come. (2 Timothy 3:1)


Jesus is giving a series of prophecies about what to look for as the age of grace comes to a close. These verses are several of many such prophecies from throughout the Bible. 2017 was the worst year in recorded history for the intensity, frequency, severity, duration and occurrence of a large number of severe natural disasters worldwide. Earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones, torrential flooding, unprecedented wildfires in unusual places, devastating droughts, excessive/scorching heat setting records everywhere, record snowfalls in Europe and Russia. Snow in the Arabia. This list can go on. Most studied Eschatologists believe these ‘fearful sights’ and massive natural disasters are all part of the ‘CONVERGENCE’ of signs that this Biblical and prophetic age is closing. Most people who study prophecy are familiar with the routine reference(s) made that these things will be like a woman having labor pains, growing in intensity, frequency, size and duration.

China pig farmer profits soar after disease wipes out third of herd, boosts prices

By Dominique Patton. Reuters•August 19, 2019

BEIJING, Aug 20 (Reuters) – Pig breeders in China who have managed to keep fatal African swine fever off their farms since outbreaks began a year ago are now set to reap rewards, with some in line for record profits of $200 per hog thanks to soaring prices.

The virus has reached every province of the world’s top pork producer. The pig herd shrank a third in July from the same month a year ago, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, though many observers believe half the herd is already gone.

Since June, slumping production has triggered a price surge. National average hog prices passed the 2016 record of 21 yuan per kilogramme earlier this month to hit 24.6 yuan ($3.48) per kg on Aug. 19, according to data from Shanghai JC Intelligence Co Ltd.

That trend is unusual: Hog prices are typically weak in summer months when pork demand is lower, and start rising in September at the start of the peak season.

“The timing is earlier than expected,” said Pan Chenjun, senior analyst at Rabobank. “August is still the low season but now everyday we see an increase in price.”

The high prices will eat into profits at processors like WH Group, which last week reported a 17% decline in first half profits and warned that prices are set to keep climbing.

FAT MARGINS

Hog prices in the south are especially strong, after the disease ravaged the area in recent months. Production had already been on the wane in the area for years after provincial governments shut down farms near water sources and population centres in a drive to clean up the environment.

Live hog prices in Guangdong <JCI-HOG-GDONG> have rocketed to more than 28 yuan per kg, double the level in late May. Neighbouring Guangxi region and Fujian province <JCI-HOG-FUZH> have also hit 26 yuan and 28 yuan respectively.

That has driven average hog profit margins over 1,000 yuan per head, within sight of the previous record of 1,135 yuan, according to JCI. Margins in Guangdong are close to 1,700 yuan.

Profits on that scale are multiple times higher than those farmers in Europe or the United States can expect to earn. They are tempting some to start expanding again – despite the high risk of operating in an environment still plagued by African swine fever.

“We’re expanding. The future will be very good,” Yin Pingan, chairman of Chongqing Riquan Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co Ltd, told Reuters by phone.

The company, which currently has 30,000 sows, is building new farms in both Guangdong and Guizhou provinces, he said.

“If there wasn’t risk, how would the prices be so good?” he added.

‘TOO DANGEROUS’

For others, however, the bumper profits are not enough to entice them back. Many farmers are still in heavy debt after losing all their animals to the disease and have not received any government support.

“It is too dangerous,” said a Guangdong-based farmer surnamed Peng, who sold all of his 10,000 pigs in June after some contracted the disease.

He said he would not return to pig production until a vaccine against the disease became available.

China’s consumers are also starting to feel the bite from African swine fever.

Retail pork prices are up more than 40% since the first outbreak in August 2018 and anticipated by government officials to soar as much as 70% in the second half of the year – just as demand for China’s favourite meat picks up with the onset of cooler weather and the important Lunar New Year festival. ($1 = 7.0611 Chinese yuan renminbi)

Categories: Pestilence Update

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