‘Business as Usual’ – Peace / Safety / Destruction / Economic Collapse

Jesus said the coming of the Son of Man will be just like the days of Noah (Matthew 24:37-39). The thing about the days of Noah is that even in the midst of terrible apostasy, evil, violence, and rebellion against God, the people went ahead with their normal lives. They planted fields, they harvested crops, they built houses, they got married, and they had children. They went about business as usual, until the very day that Noah entered the ark, and then destruction came and took them all away

1 Thessalonians 5:3 For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.

Revelation 13:16-17 And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads: And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

Business as Usual? Convergence of Economic Signs:  BREXIT WARNING: Job Loss Per EU Member State In Case Of A Hard (no-deal) Brexit October 31^st.

NO DEAL Brexit could leave Ireland on the brink of recession and cost at least 100,000 jobs, a shock economic report today warns.

By JOE BARNES, BRUSSELS CORRESPONDENT

PUBLISHED: 11:34, Wed, Jul 31, 2019 | UPDATED: 18:26, Wed, Jul 31, 2019

The Central Bank of Ireland has issued its starkest warning yet about the dangers of Britain leaving the European Union without a deal. In its quarterly report, the Central Bank predicts that 34,000 jobs would be destroyed by next year and 110,000 fewer jobs over the next ten years as a result of the hard Brexit fallout. Irish exports would also be devastated by a forecast weakening in the UK economy and a potentially large slump in the value of sterling.

“A disorderly Brexit would present enormous challenges for the Irish economy, especially in the near term, and would result in a loss of output and employment compared to a scenario where the UK remained in the EU,” the Central Bank warned.

Businesses are expected to be hit by severe disruption at ports and airports because of the introduction of new customs measures.

The report said: “It is likely that there would be disruption as ports and airports as border infrastructure is unable to cope with the new customs requirements, at least for an initial period.

“Imports would be affected with implications for firms through disruption to their production processes, and for households through the price and availability of consumer goods.

“Exports would fall due to an immediate and large reduction in demand from the UK and the fall in sterling.”

Mark Cassidy, the Central Bank’s director of economics, warned the impact would not just be felt by small and medium businesses.

He also claimed Ireland would have to deal with temporary price rises and product shortages if Britain leaves the EU without a deal.

“This will not be a shock that is confined to small number of sectors or regions,” Dr Cassidy said.

“Possibly the main channel of weakness comes through the deterioration of the UK economy. Weaker demand in the UK economy, and the impact that has on exports.”

“There would be an initial severe decline in output, followed by adjustment and recovery. We are assuming that growth in subsequent years would be somewhat higher, because that initial impact would moderate somewhat,” he added.

“It’s not a period of economic stagnation as such. Rather, a sudden decline in growth followed by a gradual recovery. Technically it’s not a recession, it is still positive growth.

“But the margin of error, given the uncertainty around these estimates is particularly high. And a reduction in the rate of growth to 0.7 per cent would be a significant shock for the economy

The Central Bank’s report estimates that Ireland’s GDP growth would slump from 4.5 percent this year to 0.7 percent in 2020 in the event of no deal.

If Britain leaves the EU with an agreement, Ireland’s GDP growth would likely only drop from 4.9 percent this year to 4.1 percent in 2020.

The Central Bank said: “There would be heightened stress in financial markets and a potentially large depreciation of sterling.

“The deterioration in economic conditions and a more adverse outlook would cause firms and households to cut spending.”

Boris Johnson yesterday clashed with Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar ahead of his first visit to Northern Ireland, which is taking place today.

Downing Street said in a fiery call, the two leaders battled over whether Theresa May’s hated Brexit deal can be renegotiated.

Mr Johnson told his counterpart that he would take Britain out of the EU on October 31 “no matter what”.

His spokesman affirmed that the Prime Minister made clear to Mr Varadkar that the controversial Northern Irish backstop to prevent a hard border must be scrapped.

But Mr Varadkar hit back and said the backstop was necessary and a consequence of Britain’s decision, a spokesman said.

“On Brexit, the Taoiseach emphasised to the prime minister that the backstop was necessary as a consequence of decisions taken in the UK and by the UK government,” the spokesman said.

“Alternative arrangements could replace the backstop in the future, as envisaged in the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration on the future relationship, but thus far satisfactory options have yet to be identified and demonstrated.”