‘Business as Usual’ – Peace / Safety / Destruction / Economic Collapse

Jesus said the coming of the Son of Man will be just like the days of Noah (Matthew 24:37-39). The thing about the days of Noah is that even in the midst of terrible apostasy, evil, violence, and rebellion against God, the people went ahead with their normal lives. They planted fields, they harvested crops, they built houses, they got married, and they had children. They went about business as usual, until the very day that Noah entered the ark, and then destruction came and took them all away

1 Thessalonians 5:3 For when they shall say, Peace and safety; then sudden destruction cometh upon them, as travail upon a woman with child; and they shall not escape.

Revelation 13:16-17 And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads: And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

Business as Usual? Convergence of Economic Signs: Auto suppliers take more pessimistic view of China vehicle production. ‘Double Digit’ declines reported.

By Ben Klayman. Reuters•July 31, 2019

DETROIT, July 31 (Reuters) – Many global auto suppliers are striking an even more pessimistic tone about Chinese vehicle output this year than some research firms, with the suppliers bracing for the pain to be far greater than the single-digit percentage declines predicted by some in the industry.

There have been 12 straight months of falling sales in the world’s largest automotive market, and demand in China is expected to decline for the second straight full year. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles on Wednesday cut its China industry sales outlook by 4%.

China auto sales have been hurt by a slowing economy and a bruising trade dispute with the United States that has hurt consumer confidence.

Exacerbating the industry’s pain is the implementation of tougher emissions standards that has automakers slashing vehicle production so they are not stuck with vehicles they may not be able to sell. That has made planning tougher for suppliers, who focus on production figures and see a more severe decline ahead.

“It’s an opaque situation,” Aptiv Chief Executive Kevin Clark told analysts on Wednesday. Aptiv makes advanced driver safety systems.

Clark questioned whether inventory levels in China are still inflated and said the company has cut jobs there in line with the production declines to keep costs under control. Aptiv is planning for China production to fall 15% in the third quarter and 13% for the year.

“We feel as though we’ve taken a fairly conservative position and balanced the risk and the opportunities in our current outlook. Is it possible that it could be worse? It is possible. We don’t think it’s likely,” he added.

Research firm IHS Markit estimated this month that light vehicle production in China this year would fall 6.9% to 24.76 million vehicles from 26.61 million in 2018.

Clark is not alone in taking a more conservative stance given the declining demand and production. Several CEOs at auto suppliers on their earnings calls this month talked about double-digit declines in output.

Garrett Motion CEO Olivier Rabiller said on Tuesday the company was changing its full-year production forecast for China to a decline of 10% from its prior forecast for an 8% drop. The company reduced its 2019 financial outlook as a result.