Hurricane Update

 Tara, Vicente and Willa Have Made 2018 the Most Active Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season on Record

Blog note: And great earthquakes shall be in diverse places, and famines, and pestilences; and fearful sights and great signs shall there be from heaven. (Luke 21:11). Jesus is giving a series of prophecies about what to look for as the age of grace comes to a close. This verse from Luke is one of many such prophecies from throughout the Bible. 2017 was the worst year in recorded history for the intensity, frequency, severity, duration and occurrence of a large number of severe natural disasters worldwide. Earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones, torrential flooding, unprecedented wildfires in unusual places, devastating droughts, excessive/scorching heat setting records everywhere, record snowfalls in Europe and Russia. Snow in the Arabia. This list can go on. Most studied eschatologists believe these ‘fearful sights’ and massive natural disasters are all part of the ‘CONVERGENCE’ of signs that this Biblical and prophetic age is closing. Most people who study prophecy are familiar with the routine reference(s) made that these things will be like a woman having labor pains that occur in greater severity, frequency, size and duration prior to giving birth. End of note.

 Tara, Vicente and Willa Have Made 2018 the Most Active Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season on Record

By Jonathan Erdman and Brian Donegan.

The 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is the most active on record, according to one metric used to track hurricane activity, boosted by what was once Tropical Storm Tara and now tropical storms Vicente and Willa.

As of Oct. 20, there have been 22 named storms, 12 of which became hurricanes and nine of which were major hurricanes – at least Category 3 intensity – in the Eastern Pacific Basin from the International Date Line to Mexico’s Pacific coast in 2018.

These numbers aren’t near the Eastern Pacific season records for named storms (27), hurricanes (16) or major hurricanes (11). However, using an index called ACE – Accumulated Cyclone Energy – the 2018 season has set a new Eastern Pacific record.

According to data compiled by Colorado State University tropical scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the 2018 season was the most-active Eastern Pacific season on record as of Oct. 20 in reliable records dating to 1971, using this ACE index.

This 2018 ACE total, 295.5 as of Oct. 20, was more than double the average ACE of an entire season (121), according to Klotzbach’s statistics.

The previous record was set in 1992 and featured a record 27 named storms and record-tying 16 hurricanes, resulting in an ACE of 295.2.

Long-lived, intense hurricanes have a high ACE index while short-lived, weak tropical storms have a low value. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACE for each storm and takes into account the number, strength and duration of all the tropical storms and hurricanes in the season.

Five storms in 2018 – hurricanes Hector, Lane, Norman, Olivia and Sergio – each lasted 10 days or longer as tropical storms or hurricanes, pumping up the 2018 ACE total. Hector spent just over a week – 7.75 days – at Category 3 or stronger intensity, according to Klotzbach.

Why So Active?

One reason for the elevated activity can be found in water temperatures.

Since the start of hurricane season, sea-surface temperatures have generally been above average from off Mexico’s Pacific coast to an area near the International Date Line.

All other factors equal, warmer water will support more intense tropical cyclones for longer periods of time.

While equatorial Pacific water temperatures have yet to reach El Niño criteria, in some sense, the atmosphere is already behaving as if one is in place, Dr. Mike Ventrice, an atmospheric scientist at The Weather Company, an IBM Business, pointed out in mid-September.

Ventrice noted a general large-scale, long-term pattern has been in place this season that has favored upward motion, leading to more tropical activity in the Pacific Basin and downward motion in parts of the Atlantic Basin, suppressing tropical activity there.

You can see this below on the image Ventrice tweeted in mid-September. The blue and purple contours show where rising motion is strongest, enhancing convection and tropical development in the Pacific, while the red contours show where sinking motion is strongest, suppressing thunderstorms and tropical development in and near the Caribbean Sea.

Resulting from this large-scale pattern, wind shear, normally hostile to developing or mature tropical cyclones, has been lower in the typical tropical cyclone zone of the Eastern Pacific from Hawaii to Mexico.

An average Eastern Pacific season produces one additional named storm through the end of the hurricane season. Therefore, with two active systems, the ACE index will likely continue to rise.


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