THE TEN HORNS OF THE BEAST’S KINGDOM IS LED BY THE ‘LITTLE HORN’. AKA BEAST, ANTICHRIST, MAN BY SATAN, MBS, SON OF PERDITION, 8TH KING OF SAUDI ARABIA.

REVELATION 10:5-6And the angel which I saw stand upon the sea and upon the earth lifted up his hand to heaven, And sware by him that liveth for ever and ever, who created heaven, and the things that therein are, and the earth, and the things that therein are, and the sea, and the things which are therein, THAT THERE SHOULD BE TIME NO LONGER:

Jeremiah 30:7 Alas! for THAT DAY IS GREAT, SO THAT NONE IS LIKE IT: IT IS EVEN THE TIME OF JACOB’S TROUBLE, but he [Israel’s Believing Remnant at the end of the seven year tribulation} shall be saved out of it.

Revelation 3:10 Because thou hast kept the word of my patience, I also will keep thee from THE HOUR OF TEMPTATION, WHICH SHALL COME UPON ALL THE WORLD, TO TRY THEM THAT DWELL UPON THE EARTH.

11 And they overcame him by the blood of the Lamb, and by the word of their testimony; and they loved not their lives unto the death.

12 Therefore rejoice, ye heavens, and ye that dwell in them. Woe to the inhabiters of the earth and of the sea! FOR THE DEVIL IS COME DOWN UNTO YOU, HAVING GREAT WRATH, BECAUSE HE KNOWETH THAT HE HATH BUT A SHORT TIME.

Matthew 28:19 Go ye therefore, and teach all nations, baptizing them in the name of THE FATHER, AND OF THE SON, AND OF THE HOLY GHOST:

Revelation 19:11

And I saw heaven opened, and BEHOLD A WHITE HORSE; AND HE THAT SAT UPON HIM WAS CALLED FAITHFUL AND TRUE, and in righteousness he doth judge and make war.

Ye are my witnesses, saith the Lord, and my servant whom I have chosen: that ye may know and believe me, and UNDERSTAND THAT I AM HE: before me there was no God formed, neither shall there be after me.

Isaiah 52:6 Therefore my people shall know my name: therefore THEY SHALL KNOW IN THAT DAY THAT I AM HE THAT DOTH SPEAK: BEHOLD, IT IS I.

Luke 21:28 And WHEN THESE THINGS BEGIN TO COME TO PASS, THEN LOOK UP, AND LIFT UP YOUR HEADS; FOR YOUR REDEMPTION DRAWETH NIGH.

In His Service,

Night Watchman

Paul Rolland

Night Watchman Ministries

www.nightwatchman.blog

https://nightwatchmanministries.substack.com

Make Your (7) Decision for Christ NOW!!!!!!! Time is Up!!!!!!!

Jesus Christ’s Offer of Salvation:

The ABCs (7) of Salvation through Jesus Christ (the Lamb)

1. (7) Admit/Acknowledge/Accept that you are sinner. Ask (7) God’s forgiveness and repent of your sins.

. . . “For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God.” (Romans 3:23).

. . . “As it is written, There is none righteous, no, not one.” (Romans 3:10).

. . . “If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is not in us.” (1 John 1:8).

B. Believe Jesus is Lord. Believe that (7) Jesus Christ is who He claimed to (7) be; that He was both fully God (7) and fully man and that we are (7) saved through His death, burial, and resurrection. (7) Put your trust in Him as your (7) only hope of salvation. Become a son (7) or daughter of God by receiving Christ. (7777777) 7×7

. . . “That whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have eternal life. For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life. For God sent not his son into the world to condemn the world; but have everlasting life. For God sent not his son into the world to condemn the world; but that the world through him might be saved. (John 3:15-17). For whosoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved.” (Romans 10:13).

C. Call upon His name, Confess (7) with your heart and with your lips (7) that Jesus is your Lord and Savior.

. . . “That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved. For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation.” (Romans 10:9-10).

I HAD A PROPHETIC DREAM OF THE ANTICHRIST BY NAME

MBS (MAN-BY-SATAN) – THE GREAT SPEAKER, PRINCE OR BEAST PERFORMS WONDEROUSLY AND DECEIVINGLY. MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN.

Daniel 8:23 And in the latter time of their kingdom, when the transgressors are come to the full, A KING OF FIERCE COUNTENANCE, AND UNDERSTANDING DARK [POLITICAL] SENTENCES, SHALL STAND UP [RISE UP ON THE WORLD’S STAGE].

24 And his power shall be mighty, BUT NOT BY HIS OWN POWER: and he shall destroy wonderfully, and SHALL PROSPER, AND PRACTISE, and shall destroy the mighty and the holy people.

25 And THROUGH HIS POLICY ALSO HE SHALL CAUSE CRAFT TO PROSPER IN HIS HAND; and he shall magnify himself in his heart, and by peace shall destroy many: he shall also stand up against the Prince of princes; but he shall be broken without hand.

26 And the VISION [2030] of the evening and the morning which was told is true: wherefore shut thou up the VISION (2030); for it shall be for many days.

MY DREAM OF THE ANTICHRIST

THE TEN HORNS

Rev 17:12-14 “The ten horns which you saw are ten kings who have not yet received a kingdom, but they receive authority as kings with the beast for one hour. (13) “These have one purpose, and they give their power and authority to the beast. (14) “These will wage war against the Lamb, and the Lamb will overcome them, because He is Lord of lords and King of kings, and those who are with Him are the called and chosen and faithful.”

The ten horns of this vision correspond with the ten toes of Nebuchadnezzar’s dream in Daniel chapter 2 and the ten horns of Daniel 7. Some see these as 10 countries coming out of Europe though passages such as Daniel 7 indicate that these 10 kings have global control. The world could be divided into 10 regions each with its leader. We also know from Daniel that these 10 kings will arise first and the Antichrist will follow them. Daniel 7:24 also tells us that the Antichrist will subdue three kings. That is, he will force them under his authority in his rise to full power. Eventually, as we see here in Revelation 17:13, all 10 will give their power and authority to the Antichrist and will do his bidding. And that bidding is to oppose God, oppose the Lamb, and oppose His followers. But the Bible is clear that the Lamb will overcome them all.

GCC AND EU ‘MUST WORK TOGETHER’ ON REGIONAL STABILITY, ENVOY SAYS AHEAD OF INAUGURAL JOINT SUMMIT

RIYADH: THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL AND THE EU NEED TO WORK TOGETHER IN AN ATTEMPT TO IMPROVE STABILITY IN THE ARAB REGION, the EU’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Oman, Christophe Farnaud said.

Speaking during a roundtable discussion ahead of THE INAUGURAL GCC-EU SUMMIT IN BRUSSELS ON OCT. 16, he cited the conflicts in Palestine, Lebanon, Sudan and Yemen, and Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, as causes for concern and added: “WE HAVE TO WORK TOGETHER FOR THE STABILITY OF THE REGION … WE HAVE TO WORK TOGETHER TO PROMOTE DIPLOMACY AND STABILITY AND NEGOTIATE SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT CRISES OF THE REGION.

ANTICHRIST ABOUT TO BE REVEALED// ANTICHRIST AND BEAST OF THE SEA DREAM

“This will be among the topics that will be broached among the leaders, especially since we are now in a time of very high level of tension and suffering among the people of the region. We all think of Palestine but there is also Lebanon, there is also the risk that we see on the Red Sea (and) in Sudan.

“I’m convinced that on both Lebanon and on Palestine the GCC and EU can find a common language.”

Farnaud said the organizations’ first joint summit will also address a wide range of other topics, including trade, innovation, education and people-to-people relations, in the hope of further strengthening relations and advancing shared interests.

ASKED BY ARAB NEWS HOW THE GCC AND EU MIGHT WORK TOGETHER IN AN EFFORT TO ENHANCE STABILITY AND SECURITY IN THE REGION, THE ENVOY SAID A “KEY POINT” IS ADOPTION OF “COMMON LANGUAGE.”

He added: “I’m quite optimistic that there will be common talk and common language on Palestine, on Lebanon, on other topics like that, which I think is really needed at the moment. If one state speaks just for itself, it’s interesting but it gives less weight. IF ALL THE EUROPEANS AND ALL THE GCC COUNTRIES SPEAK IN ONE VOICE, IT GIVES MORE WEIGHT TO WHAT WE HAVE.

“We are at a time when divisions are the worst thing possible, if you want to pass strong messages to the parties, and I think it is necessary now that we have to speak in one voice. IF YOU HAVE ALL EUROPEAN LEADERS AND ALL GULF COUNTRY LEADERS SPEAKING IN ONE VOICE, I THINK IT WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE.

“SPEAKING IN ONE VOICE AND HAVING A CLEAR VISION OF WHERE WE WANT TO GO, I THINK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT. WHAT I THINK IS IMPORTANT IS THAT THERE IS AN EXCHANGE AMONG (THE GCC AND EU). WHEN YOU’RE AT SUCH A HIGH LEVEL IT’S IMPORTANT THAT YOU CAN EXCHANGE AND SHARE HOW YOU SEE THINGS AND THEN WE WILL SEE WHAT KIND OF COMMON LANGUAGE THEY HAVE.”

Farnaud said THE LEADERS OF MEMBER NATIONS OF BOTH BLOCS “WILL MEET, THEY WILL TALK AND THEY WILL ADOPT FINAL CONCLUSIONS” on topics addressed during the summit.

This year, EU member countries Slovenia, Spain and Ireland officially recognized Palestine as a sovereign state, as did non-member Norway. On the question of whether other EU member states might follow suit, the ambassador said: “ON PALESTINE, THE POSITION OF THE EU, THE CORE POSITION OF THE EU, IS MORE UNITED THAN WHAT PEOPLE THINK AT TIMES,” ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF “WORKING ON THE LONG-TERM POLITICAL SOLUTION, WHEN LOOKING TO THE PALESTINIAN STATE, WITH THE TWO-STATE SOLUTION.”

But he added that it is difficult to say if and when other EU countries will choose to officially recognize Palestine. “As you know, the principle is accepted by all member states, THE ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING,” Farnaud said. “Some have decided to do it already, a significant number, the others want to do it when they consider it to be the most efficient time.”

During the summit, leaders are expected to build upon existing GCC-EU economic, trade and investment cooperation. “Currently the European Union is the biggest partner of the GCC; in 2023 the trade exchanges reached €170 billion ($186 billion) between GCC and Europe,” Farnaud said.

“THEY WILL TALK ABOUT TOPICS THAT ARE KEY FOR THE FUTURE: FACING GLOBAL CHALLENGES LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, ENERGY TRANSITION. ALL THESE TOPICS ARE TOPICS THAT WE HAVE TO FACE TOGETHER.”

He added that there are a number of fields in which he believes the GCC and EU can work together more effectively, including innovation, education, and health.

The ambassador also discussed the possibility of a Schengen-style arrangement for visa-free travel between GCC and EU countries: “The EU as well as the member states of the GCC share an interest in going further (on the issue). The goal remains, at some point, but it is difficult now to say when. We should keep working on the possibility of a visa-free arrangement between the Schengen area and GCC countries.”

Farnaud highlighted the HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE GCC AND EU, REFERENCING IN PARTICULAR THE 1988 AGREEMENT THAT PROVIDED THE FRAMEWORK FOR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL COOPERATION BETWEEN MEMBER STATES OF BOTH ORGANIZATIONS.

“The relations are not new,” he said. “But since WE HAVE SHARED INTERESTS AND CLOSE RELATIONS WE HAVE TO GO FURTHER.” He pointed out that the inaugural summit next week is a result of a GCC-EU ministerial council meeting that took place in Muscat, Oman, on Oct. 10 last year.“During that meeting … it was after the Hamas attack and the Israel offensive, it was decided that there should be a meeting between the GCC and the EU,” Farnaud said.

During that meeting, he added, discussions also took place on ways to boost cooperation and exchange experience and knowledge in the fields of trade, investment, renewable energy, climate change, cybersecurity and green hydrogen.

SIX-FOLD REFERENCE TO 10 EVIL HORNS/CROWNS (KINGS) OF THE BEAST’S EMPIRE:

1. . . . “And there appeared another wonder in heaven; and behold a great red dragon, having seven heads and TEN HORNS, and seven crowns upon his heads.” (Rev. 12:3).
2. . . . “And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw a beast rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and TEN HORNS, and upon his horns ten crowns, and upon his heads the name of blasphemy.” (Rev. 13:1).
3. . . . “So he carried me away in the spirit into the wilderness: and I saw a woman sit upon a scarlet coloured beast, full of names of blasphemy, having seven heads and TEN HORNS.” (Rev. 17:3).
4. . . . “And the angel said unto me, Wherefore didst thou marvel? I will tell thee the mystery of the woman and beast that carrieth her, which hat the seven heads and TEN HORNS.” (Rev. 17:7).
5. . . . “And the TEN HORNS WHICH THOU SAWEST ARE TEN KINGS, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power of kings one hour with the beast.” (Rev. 17:12).
6. . . . “And the TEN HORNS WHICH THOU SAWEST UPON THE BEAST, these shall hate the whore, and shall make her desolate and naked, and shall eat her flesh, and burn her with fire.” (Rev. 17:16).

These 6 (six) verses describe THE POLITICAL AND MILITARY BACKBONE OF THE BEAST’S EVIL EMPIRE. THE TEN (10) KINGS ARE A CONSORTIUM OF POLITICAL LEADERS THAT COLLECTIVELY GIVE UP THEIR POLITICAL AND MILITARY SOVEREIGNTY TO THE BEAST/ANTICHRIST. In exchange, he grants them “power as kings for one hour.” They will come from what is represented as a revived Roman empire (geographically, politically and militarily). The above reference in verse 17:12-14 indicates that these ten (10) political leaders act in a collective unison (with one mind), and give up their political and military might (power and strength) to the beast (based upon the will of God).

This verse also continues on to indicate that THESE KINGS “FOR ONE HOUR” ARE ACTIVE MILITARY PARTICIPANTS AGAINST JESUS CHRIST ON THE LORD’S DAY AT THE BATTLE OF ARMAGEDDON. Two verses reference the influence that these ten (10) kings have on Mystery Religion Babylon. Verse 17:7 indicates that these kings act in collective unison and purpose in supporting (and enforcing) the worldwide acceptance of the whore, Mystery Religion Babylon. They are the ‘muscle of the means’ or the part of the beast that supports (carries) the domination of the mystery religion worldwide. The last reference, verses 17:16-17, indicate that midway through the Tribulation, these ten (10) kings turn on and destroy the whore, the Mystery Religion of Babylon.

Why would these ten (10) kings, who have worked for 3 ½ years to build up and support the whore, the worldwide mystery religion system, suddenly turn on her to “make her desolate and naked and shall eat her flesh and burn her with fire?” The answer lies in the religious or spiritual ‘bait-n-switch’ that Satan pulls off on evil mankind. At the beginning of the Tribulation, to gain easy acceptance and domination over the world’s peoples, Satan allows them to worship anything and everything (but God and Jesus Christ) and to also enforce his worship through the beast/antichrist and false prophet.

The worship of anything and everything (but God and Jesus Christ) is known as Mystery Religion Babylon, which also includes Satanic (Islamic) worship. HALFWAY (3 ½ YEARS) INTO THE TRIBULATION, SATAN PHYSICALLY INDWELLS THE BEAST AND COMMITS THE ABOMINATION OF DESOLATION IN THE REBUILT JEWISH TEMPLE. THE SATANICALLY INDWELT BEAST PLACES HIMSELF IN THE HOLIEST PART OF THE REBUILT TEMPLE AND DECLARES HIMSELF TO BE GOD AND DEMANDS TO BE WORSHIPPED DIRECTLY AS SUCH, UNDER THE PAIN OF DEATH AND BEHEADING OF NOT DOING SO. As a result, men who have taken the mark of the beast and perhaps have been worshipping idols of gold or silver, have no choice but to give up their mystery religion and are forced to worship Satan/beast exclusively.

Most of those deceived men who have already been worshipping the beast and his image will have no problem in continuing to worship the satanically indwelt beast. Their worship will just be more of the same, except that Satan is now the direct object or recipient of their worship. Conversely, those men who were actively participating in the mystery religion of worshipping whatever they wanted, now have to turn their worship exclusively to Satan. Thus, Satan has effectively pulled-off a successful religious ‘bait-n-switch’ of historical proportions. Evil men thought they could get away with chasing whatever they wanted, and now, Satan/beast has a firm grasp of them ‘bait-hook-line-sinker.’

Evil men have to worship him, they are forced to worship him under threat of death. They have physically and satanically defiled themselves through taking the beast’s mark (or name, number) and thus, they have given themselves over totally, completely and whole heartedly to the beast’s kingdom and system. Now, the whole mystery religion system has been destroyed “burned with fire, flesh consumed,” and replaced with the singular, exclusive worship of Satan. The ten (10) kings helped carry the whore throughout the whole world, and conversely, helped destroy her when the time was right and dictated by Satan. Just as the beast and false prophet are puppets of Satan, the ten (10) kings are the ‘puppet thugs’ or ‘heavy muscle goons’ that carry the beast’s system and mystery religion (for 3 ½ years) throughout the world.

THE TEN TOES, THE TEN HORNS AND THE TEN KINGS IN BIBLE PROPHECY

THE TEN LEADERS WHO WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR THE ANTICHRIST

THE ANTICHRIST JUST BEEN REVEALED TO THE WORLD AND NO ONE NOTICES

TWELVE-FOLD REFERENCE TO THE BEAST’S EVIL POLITICAL SYSTEM OR KINGDOM:

1. . . . “And I stood upon the sand of the sea, and saw A BEAST rise up out of the sea, having seven heads and TEN HORNS, AND UPON HIS HORNS TEN CROWNS, AND UPON HIS HEADS THE NAME OF BLASPHEMY.” (Rev. 13:1).
2. . . . “And THE BEAST which I saw was like unto a leopard, and his feet of a bear, and his mouth of a lion: and THE DRAGON GAVE HIM HIS POWER, AND HIS SEAT, AND GREAT AUTHORITY.” (Rev. 13:2).
3. . . . “And it was given unto him to make war with the saints, and to overcome them: and POWER WAS GIVEN HIM OVER ALL KINDREDS, AND TONGUES, AND NATIONS.” (Rev. 13:7).
4. . . . “And the fifth angel poured out his vial upon the seat of THE BEAST; and his kingdom was full of darkness; and they gnawed their tongues for pain,” (Rev. 16:10).
5. . . . “For they are the spirits of devils working miracles, which go forth unto the KINGS OF THE WORLD, TO GATHER THEM TO THE BATTLE OF THAT GREAT DAY OF GOD ALMIGHTY.” (Rev. 16:14).
6. . . . “So he carried me away in the spirit into the wilderness: and I saw A WOMAN SIT UPON A SCARLET COLOURED BEAST, FULL OF NAMES OF BLASPHEMY, having seven heads and TEN HORNS.” (Rev. 17:3).
7. . . . “And the angel said unto me, Wherefore didst thou marvel? I will tell thee the mystery of the woman, and THE BEAST that carrieth her, which hath the seven heads and TEN HORNS.” (Rev. 17:7).
8. . . . “And THE TEN HORNS WHICH THOU SAWEST ARE TEN KINGS, which have received no kingdom as yet; but receive power as kings one hour with the beast.” (Rev. 17:12).
9. . . . “These have one mind, and shall give their power and strength unto THE BEAST.” (Rev. 17:13).
10. . . . “And THE TEN HORNS WHICH THOU SAWEST UPON THE BEAST, these shall hate the whore, and shall make her desolate and naked, and shall eat her flesh, and burn here with fire.” (Rev. 17:16).
11. . . . “For God hath put in their hearts to fulfill his will, and to agree, and GIVE THEIR KINGDOM UNTO THE BEAST, until the words of God shall be fulfilled.” (Rev. 17:17).
12. . . . “And the woman which thou sawest is that great city, which reigneth over the kings of the earth.” (Rev. 17:18).

ANTICHRIST IS HERE! POPE FRANCIS JUST REVEALS THE ANTICHRIST HAS ARRIVED!

WHAT DENOTES A POLITICAL RULE OR SYSTEM? REFERENCES TO A KINGDOM, POWER, SEAT, AUTHORITY, KINGS, POWER OVER NATIONS, ETC. CONSIDERED AND UNDERSTOOD IN TOTALITY, THESE VERSES DESCRIBE THE FORMATION OF THE BEAST’S BABYLONIAN SYSTEM AND KINGDOM.

They describe where the beast/antichrist/man of sin gets his evil power, seat and authority (Satan gives this to him directly). Satan has the power to do exactly this, in Matthew 4:8-9, Satan tempts Jesus with; “Again, the devil taketh him up into an exceeding high mountain, and sheweth him all the kingdoms of the world, and the glory of them; And saith unto him, All these things I will give thee, if thou wilt fall down and worship me.”

Power is given to the beast/antichrist/man of sin over all kindreds, tongues and nations.

 THE TEN HORNS ARE TEN POLITICAL LEADERS, WHO IN EXCHANGE FOR GIVING UP THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL POLITICAL SOVEREIGNTY, RECEIVE THE DESIGNATION AS KINGS FROM THE BEAST, WHILE HE REMAINS IN POWER (FOR AN HOUR). GOD PUTS IT INTO THEIR MINDS TO COLLECTIVELY GIVE CONTROL OF THEIR NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY OVER TO THE BEAST.

 As such, the beast gains a formidable political and military support system to carry out his rule. Politically, it appears that NEOM BABYLON CITY IS THE BEAST’S CAPITAL CITY AND SUPPORTS THE MAN-MADE RELIGIOUS HEARTBEAT OF THE EVIL MYSTERY RELIGION (BABYLON MYSTERY RELIGION – WHORE). AT THE MIDPOINT IN THE TRIBULATION, THE TEN (10) KINGS DESTROY MYSTERY RELIGION BABYLON TO MAKE WAY FOR THE SOLE WORSHIP OF SATAN THROUGH HIS INDWELT POSSESSION OF THE BEAST/ANTICHRIST/MAN OF SIN. In Rev. verse 17:14, scripture also indicates that these ten (10) kings will also participate at the battle of Armageddon against Christ

https://youtu.be/IT_hjhIlMaY

THE TEN HORNS OF THE BEAST REVEALED

SAUDI CROWN PRINCE, FRENCH PRESIDENT DISCUSS REGIONAL TENSION IN PHONE CALL

Arab News October 11, 202423:55

RIYADH: SAUDI CROWN PRINCE MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN SPOKE ON THE PHONE WITH FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON ON FRIDAY, Saudi Press Agency reported.

During the call, they discussed the latest developments in the region and reviewed the efforts exerted to de-escalate the situation in Palestine and Lebanon to ACHIEVE SECURITY AND STABILITY, SPA added.

REBRANDED SAUDI CROWN PRINCE MEETS MACRON AS RIGHTS GROUPS DECRY ‘HYPOCRISY’

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Friday at the start of a visit aimed at boosting bilateral ties and the oil kingdom’s standing in the international community. But human rights groups warn that the Saudi’s gain is France’s loss on an increasingly divided global stage.  

Less than five years after Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed and dismembered in Saudi Arabia’s consulate in Istanbul, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets French President Emmanuel Macron for a working lunch in Paris on Friday.

The rehabilitation of the man the CIA determined had “approved” the Istanbul consulate operation is now a done deal. The transformation of the Saudi crown prince from “pariah” – a term Joe Biden used on the US presidential campaign trail – to indispensable diplomatic figure has been quick and thorough, marking an era of realpolitik on steroids.

Since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler – known widely as “MBS” – has emerged from global isolation to meet and greet leaders who were once wary of engaging with THE YOUNG, BRASH CROWN PRICE WITH A TARNISHED HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD.

Last summer, Biden met bin Salman in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, where the two leaders fist-bumped, sparking condemnations from the likes of Democratic Congressman Adam Schiff, who called it “a visual reminder of the continuing grip oil-rich autocrats have on US foreign policy”.

A week later, bin Salman was in Paris, where he was greeted with a more cordial handshake with Macron at the Élysée presidential palace.

WOOING LEADERS WITH AN EYE ON 2030

The Saudi crown prince’s latest visit is not a rushed one. MBS left the kingdom on Wednesday, according to the Saudi Royal Court, for France, where HE OWNS THE CHATEAU LOUIS XIV, A MODERN BUILDING IN VERSAILLES THAT SEEKS TO REPLICATE THE OPULENCE OF FRENCH IMPERIAL PALACES.

Following his Friday working lunch with Macron at the Élysée palace, bin Salman will attend a reception in Paris on Monday to support Riyadh’s bid to host the World Expo 2030, also called the “universal exhibition”.

Days later, the Saudi crown prince will attend the June 22-23 SUMMIT FOR A NEW GLOBAL FINANCING PACT HOSTED BY MACRON.

The French president announced the summit at the COP27 in Egypt in November. It’s aimed at building “a new contract between the countries of the North and the South to address climate change and the global crisis”, according to the official website.

While Macron aims to try to bridge the North-South divide exacerbated by the Ukraine war, the Saudi crown prince has his own agenda during his French visit. “Mohammed bin Salman wants to enjoy the presence of many leaders, from Africa mainly, in order to get their support, their vote, for the universal exhibition [Expo 2030] … it’s a file that MBS is personally following. This is the reason for his long presence in France,” explained Georges Malbrunot, senior reporter at the French daily, Le Figaro, in an interview with FRANCE 24.

“There are different topics on the agenda: Ukraine, Lebanon, etcetera. IT’S A KIND OF PUBLIC RELATIONS OPERATION FOR MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, WHO WAS A PARIAH FIVE YEARS AGO AFTER THE HORRIBLE JAMAL KHASHOGGI ASSASSINATION,” SAID MALBRUNOT. “BUT HE’S AN INTERNATIONAL ACTOR NOW. NOBODY CAN AVOID HIM.”

Hosting the World Expo 2030 has turned into a hot button issue, with more than a dozen human rights groups writing an open letter to the Paris-based Bureau International des Expositions (BIE), urging the world fair organiser to drop the Saudi candidacy due to its “abysmal” human rights record.

BUT 2030 IS A CRITICAL YEAR FOR THE GULF KINGDOM SINCE IT MARKS THE TARGET DATE FOR VISION 2030, THE CROWN PRINCE’S AMBITIOUS ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION AND REFORM PLAN. SAUDI ARABIA IS ALSO BIDDING TO HOST THE 2030 FIFA WORLD CUP. “FOR SURE 2030 IS A VERY IMPORTANT YEAR FOR SAUDI ARABIA,” SAID MALBRUNOT.  “IF HE GETS THE UNIVERSAL EXPO FOR 2030, IT WILL BE A BIG VICTORY FOR SAUDI ARABIA.”

KEEPING VARIOUS WIVES HAPPY

Since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine began 18 months ago, the Middle East region has witnessed A COMPLEX REALIGNMENT OF POWERS, WHICH SOME EXPERTS CALL THE SIGNS OF A CHANGING GLOBAL ORDER.

Earlier this year, China brokered a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, prompting a reopening of diplomatic ties between the region’s biggest rivals and hopes for a de-escalation of the war in Yemen, where the two powers have waged a proxy war over the past eight years.

Beyond the Middle East, Saudi Arabia played a critical role last year in brokering a prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine, which secured the release of 300 people.

Meanwhile the convergence of Russian and Saudi oil interests, which were on display during the October 2022 OPEC Plus meeting, have started to strain. While Saudi Arabia followed through on the agreement and exported less oil, Russia increased its sales, at cheap prices, to countries such as India and China.

As Global South hegemons – such as South Africa, Brazil and India – were under fire for their pro-Moscow tilt, SAUDI ARABIA MANAGED A DIPLOMATIC TOUR DE FORCE LAST MONTH – WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM FRANCE.

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise landing in Jeddah last month to address an Arab League summit, he arrived on a French Airbus emblazoned with the tricolour. France had flown in the Ukrainian leader for an important meeting, marking a diplomatic achievement for Paris.

“MACRON HAS BECOME INVESTED IN HELPING REHABILITATE MBS’S IMAGE ON THE GLOBAL STAGE,” said Mohamad Bazzi, a professor and director of the Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies at New York University. “MOST PLAYERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST REGION HAVE AN INTEREST IN CONVEYING THE MESSAGE THAT THE US IS NOT THE DOMINANT POWER IN THE REGION ANYMORE. THE CONSISTENT SAUDI MESSAGING IS THAT THEY HAVE OPTIONS OTHER THAN THE US. MACRON MIGHT BE TRYING TO PLAY THE ROLE AS ANOTHER PEACEMAKER TRYING TO DE-ESCALATE TENSIONS IN THE REGION.”

Malbrunot describes the geopolitical shifts in terms of polygamy, which is legal in Saudi Arabia. “WE USED TO HAVE SAUDI ARABIA AS A STRATEGIC ALLY WITH THE US. NOW WITH MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, SAUDI ARABIA HAS MULTIPLE WIVES. THEY STILL HAVE THE US WIFE, BUT NOT ONLY. THEY HAVE THE CHINESE WIFE NOW BECAUSE CHINA IS THE FIRST COUNTRY WHERE THEY SELL THEIR OIL. THEY HAVE THE RUSSIAN WIFE, THEY HAVE THE EUROPEAN WIFE,” explained Malbrunot.

THE COSTS OF ‘DOING BUSINESS WITH TYRANTS’

When it comes to Europe, France has always been more forgiving towards MBS than countries such as Germany and the Netherlands. The clemency is driven by weapons, not Christian values. Following Khashoggi’s assassination, France – unlike Germany and the Netherlands – refrained from suspending arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

PARIS AND RIYADH HAVE MUTUALLY COMPATIBLE AGENDAS IN THE ARMS BAZAAR. THE INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRANSFER TRENDS FOR 2022, RELEASED BY THE STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SIPRI), CONFIRMED LONGSTANDING TRENDS: SAUDI ARABIA RANKS AMONG THE WORLD’S TOP THREE ARMS IMPORTERS WHILE FRANCE IS AMONG THE WORLD’S TOP THREE ARMS EXPORTERS.

IT’S A TRANSACTIONAL RELATIONSHIP that draws the ire of Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), an NGO founded by Khashoggi. “MACRON IS BASICALLY ROLLING OUT THE RED CARPET FOR MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN TO TRY TO SECURE ARMS SALES. MACRON HAS REALLY SOLD FRANCE AND FRANCE’S VALUES FOR A FEW GOLDEN FRANCS,” said Whitson.

Nearly a year ago, when the Saudi crown prince made his first trip to France since Khashoggi’s killing, DAWN, along with other NGOs, filed a universal jurisdiction complaint before the Paris tribunal arguing that MBS IS AN ACCOMPLICE TO THE TORTURE, ENFORCED DISAPPEARANCE, AND THE MURDER OF KHASHOGGI.

But Paris has so far failed to appoint an investigative judge to examine the case, prompting DAWN to release a statement noting that the delay “suggests that FRENCH AUTHORITIES ARE DELIBERATELY DRAGGING THEIR FEET AND POLITICISING WHAT SHOULD BE A STRAIGHTFORWARD JUDICIAL PROCEDURE”.

“Macron is wagging a finger at other countries for selling arms to Russia, lecturing them about international law and scolding them for harming human rights. It’s a shocking display of hypocrisy,” said Whitson.

FRANCE IS NOT THE ONLY WESTERN POWER BEHAVING HYPOCRITICALLY, CONCEDES WHITSON, POINTING TO THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION’S DECISION IN NOVEMBER TO GRANT MBS IMMUNITY, AS THE HEAD OF THE SAUDI GOVERNMENT, IN A US LEGAL CASE.

Malbrunot notes that bin Salman’s entry into the international fold under the current circumstances is inevitable. “He’s an actor in the Ukraine-Russian war, he’s an actor now in the Middle East with the rapprochement with Iran … realpolitik has taken the lead now. So MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN CAN’T BE AVOIDED,” he noted.

When asked if Le Figaro’s readers would be outraged over Macron’s meeting with a leader castigated for his human rights records, Malbrunot believed it was not the case.

“I think they’re not upset anymore with the human rights record because, I guess, there is this aspect of reality, which can’t be denied, that SAUDI ARABIA IS A VERY IMPORTANT COUNTRY, NOT ONLY IN THE OIL MARKET, BUT ALSO DIPLOMATICALLY NOW,” he said.

Whitson, however, believes the resignation is dangerous. “French readers should understand that THERE IS A COST OF DOING BUSINESS WITH TYRANTS,” SHE SAID. “THE COST IS DEMOCRACY. IF DICTATORSHIPS AROUND THE WORLD CAN BUY OUR GOVERNMENTS WITH MONEY, IF THEY CAN UNDERMINE OUR VALUES WITH MONEY, WE DON’T STAND A CHANCE PERSUADING THE WORLD THAT DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS MATTER WHEN OUR GOVERNMENTS ARE WILLING TO SELL OURSELVES FOR MONEY.”

FROM PARIAH TO PEACEMAKER? NEW CHAPTER FOR MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN’S SAUDI ARABIA

IDENTITY OF THE LITTLE HORN POWER

Saudi Arabia’s crown prince is mending fences with Syria and Iran, soothing rivalries with Gulf rivals and now welcoming the Biden administration’s point man on security to Jeddah. Ten months after that frosty fist bump with the US president, Mohammed bin Salman is talking peace-brokering in Sudan and a winding down of his eight-year campaign in Yemen.

Since last July, when Joe Biden visited, the same MBS has cut deals with Washington’s rivals, signing unprecedented pacts with China and agreeing to oil production cuts with under-sanctions Russia. But the channels are far from cut with the US. CAN SAUDI ARABIA BE ALL THINGS TO ALL POWERS?

More broadly, how much has the kingdom changed – or not – since the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018? Has MBS changed and if so, in what way?

THE LITTLE HORN IN DANIEL 7 AND 8 – THE ANTICHRIST EXPLAINED

JOINT COMMUNICATION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH THE GULF

1. Introduction THE GULF IS A DYNAMIC NEIGHBOURING REGION AND AN IMPORTANT GATEWAY BETWEEN EUROPE, ASIA AND AFRICA. THE SECURITY AND STABILITY SITUATION OF THE GULF REGION BEARS DIRECT CONSEQUENCES FOR THE EU. Likewise, the EU has a lot to offer to the Gulf partners, as the world’s biggest single market, trading bloc and investor, a leader in research and innovation, and an important mediator and promoter of multilateralism, democracy and social transformation including human rights and gender equality. 

AT A TIME OF INSECURITY AND SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES TO THE RULES-BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER BOTH IN EUROPE AND IN THE GULF REGION, and as the world faces the consequences of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic and the urgent imperative of the green and digital transition, THE EUROPEAN UNION STANDS MUCH TO GAIN FROM A STRONGER AND MORE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH THE GULF CO-OPERATION COUNCIL (GCC) AND ITS MEMBER STATES.

INCREASING TRADE AND INVESTMENT, FIGHTING CLIMATE CHANGE, ENSURING GLOBAL HEALTH AND ENERGY SECURITY AND A SMOOTH GREEN TRANSITION, MEETING GROWING GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT AND HUMANITARIAN NEEDS AND PROMOTING PEACE AND STABILITY AND DE-ESCALATION OF TENSIONS IN THE BROADER REGION ARE ALL ISSUES OF STRONG MUTUAL INTEREST.

A STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE EU AND THE GCC AND ITS MEMBER STATES WILL INCREASE THE PROSPERITY AND SECURITY OF BOTH PARTNERS AND MAKE A REAL DIFFERENCE IN MEETING GLOBAL CHALLENGES. Such a partnership will build on the traditional strong links that already exist between individual GCC and EU Member States. Involvement of other key Gulf countries in the partnership may also be considered as relations develop and mature. 

A stronger partnership with the Gulf region has a key role to play in the implementation of the European strategy to REPowerEU2 and the complementing EU External Energy Strategy. This includes such important topics such as an increase of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies, measures to stabilize oil markets, cooperation on hydrogen, energy efficiency and faster deployment of renewable energy. 

Recent developments in the Gulf are encouraging. The end to the rift within the GCC in 2021 has FACILITATED THE RESUMPTION AND EXPANSION OF EU-GCC COOPERATION. THE PROMISING SOCIETAL AND ECONOMIC CHANGES UNDERWAY IN THE GCC COUNTRIES, BASED ON AMBITIOUS TRANSFORMATIVE AGENDAS (‘VISIONS’), AND THEIR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, OFFER A WIDE RANGE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION AND INVESTMENT. Moreover, a positive conclusion of the Vienna negotiations aimed at facilitating a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by the United States and resumption of full implementation of all JCPOA commitments by the United States and Iran could provide a platform for further efforts to reduce tensions and build confidence in the wider region.    Given the wealth of developments since the 1989 EU-GCC Cooperation agreement,  and the need for much stronger and more comprehensive cooperation, THE EU IS DETERMINED TO PARTNER WITH THE GULF REGION AND REVITALIZE COOPERATION THROUGH A ROBUST STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP AND SOLID BILATERAL INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORKS. 

This Joint Communication therefore proposes a stronger partnership in a series of key policy areas and sets out a number of concrete proposals for the EU and the GCC and its Member States to strengthen their co-operation in their mutual interest, with a clear focus on delivering results.

1. A PARTNERSHIP FOR PROSPERITY TOGETHER THE EU AND THE GCC REPRESENTS 20% OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, 17.5% of global trade, and cover more than half of global foreign direct investments. In 2020, the EU was the GCC’s largest import and fourth-largest export partner (with proportions of 17.8% and 6.9%, respectively).  A PRIVILEGED TRADE AND INVESTMENT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE EU AND THE GCC AND ITS MEMBERS IS OF STRONG MUTUAL INTEREST, INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT AND HAS CLEAR FURTHER POTENTIAL. THIS IS EVEN MORE RELEVANT IN A FAST- CHANGING GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT WHERE THE EU MUST BUILD ALLIANCES AND PLATFORMS OF COOPERATION TO PURSUE ITS OBJECTIVES AND ENHANCE ITS OPEN STRATEGIC AUTONOMY. Further to the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the EU will actively work towards building stronger ties with the GCC to seek alternative sources of energy, including renewable energy.

Building on the 1989 Cooperation Agreement, the EU and GCC were engaged in negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement, which came to a halt in 2008, mainly due to different levels of ambition on key points. Since then, the EU framework for free trade agreements has further developed and currently includes ambitious provisions on sustainable development, labour rights, the phasing out of export duties and other measures that distort trade and investments. Expert level discussions continue to further improve mutual understanding of the positions, in view of possible negotiations for a trade agreement, which would address issues of mutual interest, including an enhanced trade and investment environment, regulatory and customs cooperation as well as sustainable development objectives.

In the meantime, THE EU WILL EXPLORE WAYS TO DEEPEN THE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AND TO STRENGTHEN THE EXISTING EU-GCC TRADE AND INVESTMENT. Dialogue to further facilitate regulatory cooperation, increase the protection of intellectual property rights including geographical indications, further strengthen the cooperation on customs and anti-fraud matters, including the fight against counterfeiting and smuggling, support renewable energy, energy and resource efficiency and digital trade, and promote sustainable and global supply chains.

THE EU AND GCC WILL COORDINATE POSITIONS ON MULTILATERAL TRADE POLICY AGENDAS, INCLUDING WITHIN THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION ON ITS REFORM. THE EU WILL ALSO SEEK TO STRENGTHEN EU-GCC COOPERATION ON ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AND SUSTAINABLE BUSINESS AND INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT with well-functioning and fair markets where enterprises can compete on their merits on a level playing field and addressing unfair trading practices or subsidies that distort competition. 

Moreover, THE EU WILL CONSOLIDATE ECONOMIC BILATERAL PARTNERSHIPS WITH EACH GCC COUNTRY, COMPLEMENTARY TO THE EXISTING EU-GCC TRADE AND INVESTMENT PARTNERSHIP.

This would also contribute to economic diversification, in which the Gulf countries have a strong interest. They have adopted strategic ‘Visions’ that aim to diversify their economies, shifting away from dependency on oil and gas revenues. They are also focused on developing other sectors and a robust private sector that can generate jobs, growth and foreign investments, and on addressing job market distortions by generating employment for their own nationals.

THE EU AND ITS MEMBER STATES COULD SHARE BEST PRACTICES WITH THE GCC COUNTRIES ON HOW TO STIMULATE A CONDUCIVE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT FOR SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED ENTERPRISES IN SECTORS SUCH AS DIGITALIZATION, ENERGY, THE GREEN ECONOMY AND SUSTAINABLE TOURISM, and on supporting the alignment of study curricula and developing and supporting an entrepreneurial culture.

 The EU will continue working with the GCC to further improve business cooperation by removing outstanding market access barriers and supporting fair, transparent and non-discriminatory investment-inducing policies. To achieve these objectives, THE EU INTENDS TO SUPPORT THE CREATION OF AN EU CHAMBER OF COMMERCE IN THE GCC COUNTRIES.

The economic transformation that is currently underway in both regions presents an opportunity to reflect on how to best tackle our respective labour market shortages and ensure our economies have the skills they need to grow and innovate, focusing on youth mobility between the EU and the GCC countries. GULF COUNTRIES ARE IMPORTANT PARTNERS IN THE COLLECTIVE EFFORTS TO TACKLE THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC, GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY AND IN THE INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES TO IMPROVE PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE.

JOINT EFFORTS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE IMPROVING PUBLIC HEALTH DELIVERY AND ENSURE A ROBUST GLOBAL FRAMEWORK THAT INCREASES RESILIENCE AND RESPONSE CAPACITY FOR FUTURE HEALTH CRISIS. FURTHER WORK ON LINKING THE GULF COUNTRIES TO THE EU DIGITAL COVID CERTIFICATE SYSTEM AND ON RECOGNIZING VACCINATIONS WOULD SUPPORT SAFE INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE GLOBAL RECOVERY.

The EU will also engage with them on long-term recovery instruments and the Next Generation EU, and seek their support for its diversified funding strategy that includes the issuance of medium-term and long-term bonds. The EU will also ENHANCE AND STRENGTHEN COOPERATIVE EFFORTS IN THE FIELDS OF PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE TO PUBLIC HEALTH THREATS.

The EU will continue its dialogue with the region on shipping and aim to strengthen cooperation especially on maritime safety, environmental protection and maritime transport interconnections. The EU will continue working with Gulf countries at the International Maritime Organization to ensure a high level of safety and environmental standards and more ambitious greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. 

The EU is determined to tackle the challenges and maximize the opportunities offered by DIGITALIZATION AND TO ENGAGE WITH THE GCC, INCLUDING ON DIGITAL TRANSITION, CONNECTIVITY AND INNOVATION. Through the Global Gateway strategy, THE EU WILL SUPPORT THE DEPLOYMENT OF DIGITAL NETWORKS AND INFRASTRUCTURES IN UNDERSERVED REGIONS OF THE WORLD, ENSURING THEY ARE SAFE, RESILIENT AND TRUSTWORTHY AND PROTECT PEOPLE’S INTEGRITY, notably by promoting the EU 5G toolbox.

THE EU WILL SUPPORT THE INCREASE OF SECURE INTERNATIONAL CONNECTIVITY NOTABLY BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE GULF AND WILL ENGAGE IN DISCUSSIONS ON SUPPORTING A HUMAN-CENTRIC APPROACH TO DIGITALIZATION, INCLUDING RESPECT FOR UNIVERSAL VALUES. This may in turn open up possibilities for further COOPERATION ON THE DATA ECONOMY, HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING, OR A HUMAN CENTRIC APPROACH TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

A starting point for strengthening the data economy could be to explore mutual interest in cooperation on industrial data spaces. The EU and the GCC can work together to further support the digital up-skilling of people in the GCC countries, in particular women and young people, so they can benefit from the opportunities of the digital transition. The mutual interest in cooperating on the EU concept of digital innovation hubs can be explored. The EU will also support exchanges with Gulf countries on EU data protection policies and practices to PROMOTE FURTHER CONVERGENCE WITH EU AND INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS. 

EU cooperation with the GCC countries on research and innovation will create new markets and jobs, contribute to economic diversification and the economic recovery in the region and ADDRESS SOCIETAL CHALLENGES LIKE THE CLIMATE AND ENERGY TRANSITIONS AND GLOBAL HEALTH ISSUES. This cooperation will be based on the EU’s new strategy, which will also inform and guide international cooperation under the Horizon Europe framework programme. It will promote openness, balanced with greater levels of reciprocity, and will seek a level-playing field based on respect for fundamental principles such as academic freedom, gender equality, ethics, integrity and inclusiveness of research, open science and evidence-based policy-making.

The EU aims to strengthen cooperation with the GCC on space issues. GCC countries have become more active in this field and have expressed interest in the joint development of space-based augmentation for GPS and Galileo to cover the Gulf region. This will allow safety critical applications to make use of GPS and Galileo for high precision approaches to airports, reducing the need for ground infrastructure. EU-GCC cooperation could also address the use of Earth-observation data provided by the EU’s Copernicus system for applications such as pollution monitoring or water vapour measurements.

Action points:

1. Strengthen EU-GCC cooperation on trade and investment in general, including on economic integration and diversification, and notably the existing EU-GCC Trade and Investment Dialogue. This would include exploring possibilities of REACHING A COMMON UNDERSTANDING ON POSSIBLE NEGOTIATIONS FOR A TRADE AGREEMENT, which would address issues of mutual interest, including an enhanced trade and investment environment, regulatory and customs cooperation as well as sustainable development objectives.
2. PURSUE COMMON EFFORTS TO TACKLE THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC, IN PARTICULAR ON RECOGNITION OF CERTIFICATES AND VACCINATIONS.
3. ENHANCE AND STRENGTHEN COOPERATIVE EFFORTS IN THE FIELDS OF PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE TO PUBLIC HEALTH THREATS AND WORK TOWARDS AN IMPROVED GLOBAL HEALTH ARCHITECTURE TO COUNTER HEALTH CRISES.
4. Improve cooperation on transport issues, including regulatory aspects, safety, traffic management, interconnections and social and environmental standards.
5. Further cooperate on the development of a human-centric approach to DIGITALIZATION, INCLUDING IN TERMS OF CONNECTIVITY, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, DIGITAL TRANSITION, DIGITAL SKILLS AND DATA PROTECTION.
6. Improve awareness of research and innovation cooperation opportunities and institutional training opportunities, including under the Horizon Europe programme.
7.  Strengthen cooperation on space issues.

1. A PARTNERSHIP FOR A GREEN TRANSITION AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SECURITY. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES AND THE OPPORTUNITIES THAT THE GREEN TRANSITION CAN OFFER, JOINING FORCES IS PARAMOUNT FOR THE EU AND THE GULF REGION. ACHIEVING THE OVERRIDING GOALS OF THE UN’S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS, THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND THE CONVENTION ON BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY ARE KEY SHARED PRIORITIES. WHILE GULF COUNTRIES ARE EMERGING PLAYERS ON THE INTERNATIONAL STAGE IN ADDRESSING THE FIGHT AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE, BY WHICH THE GULF REGION IS PARTICULARLY AFFECTED, THE EU CAN SHARE EXPERTISE AND KNOW-HOW IN RELATED FIELDS AS A PIONEER ON CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVES.

At the same time, Gulf partners are reliable Liquefied Natural Gas providers and have a considerable role and further potential in the context of overall sustainable energy security and a smooth transition to net-zero.

However, being the world’s biggest producer of fossil fuels, Gulf countries will have to take bold steps to shift away from this economic model in the longer term, becoming not only significant exporters but also MAJOR INVESTORS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST REGION AND FINANCIAL SUPPORTERS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE RELATED EFFORTS. At the same time, the EU is interested in alternative energy sources and will increasingly need considerable imports of renewable energy from diversified sources by DEVELOPING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO UNDISTORTED TRADE AND INVESTMENTS IN GREEN ENERGY GOODS. Therefore, there is an overriding common interest in engaging more strategically, SPEEDING UP THE GREEN TRANSITION and the move to circular economies, address the respective trade interests of both regions, and SUCCESSFULLY MEETING CLIMATE-RELATED COMMITMENTS.

THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE EU EXTERNAL ENERGY STRATEGY.

THE RECENT NET-ZERO ANNOUNCEMENTS BY GULF PARTNERS ARE IMPORTANT STEPS FORWARD IN FILLING THE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION GAP AND KEEPING THE PARIS 1.5C GOAL IN SIGHT, if these are accompanied by equally ambitious long-term low greenhouse gas emissions development strategies. Implementation of the pledges and announcements made and phasing out subsidized fossil fuel energy must now be the priority. Methane emissions reduction is another area of potential EU-Gulf cooperation that could contribute to achieving a gradual phase out of fossil natural gas towards biogas and biomethane, renewable and low-carbon hydrogen and synthetic fuels16.  

The EU will also step up its cooperation with Gulf countries on climate action and clean energy transition by facilitating exchanges and partnerships on renewable energy (including renewable hydrogen), energy efficiency including the ENERGY EFFICIENCY FIRST PRINCIPLE, CARBON CAPTURE UTILIZATION AND STORAGE, CARBON PRICING AND CARBON MARKETS, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND RESILIENCE.

This cooperation will also explore best practices, technology options, innovation, regulatory frameworks and standards. The EU will further pursue the active involvement of and support for the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which could provide a useful avenue for work on clean energy transitions. The EU will engage with the Gulf countries and notably the UAE, on preparations for COP27 in Egypt and COP28 in the UAE as well as with FRAMEWORKS SUCH AS THE SAUDI GREEN INITIATIVE AND THE MIDDLE EAST GREEN INITIATIVE.

 THE GREEN TRANSITION AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION WILL REQUIRE LARGE-SCALE INVESTMENTS GLOBALLY. THE GLOBAL GATEWAY PROVIDES A USEFUL FRAMEWORK FOR A JOINT VENTURE WITH THE GULF TO FOSTER SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENTS IN THE BROADER MIDDLE EAST REGION, as well as in Africa. It could be instrumental in bringing together the investment capabilities of the EU and Gulf countries and their financial institutions and effectively engage the private sector to unlock the necessary capital, expertise and experience.

 EU-GCC cooperation can play an important role in aligning finance flows with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development, especially with a view to the post-2025 goal on climate finance. The EU and Gulf countries will strengthen their cooperation by exchanging on sustainable financeinitiatives and green bonds issuances, including WITH EUROPEAN, GULF-BASED AND MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, and in the context of discussions in the relevant international fora. THE EU THUS ENCOURAGES THE PARTICIPATION OF GULF COUNTRIES IN THE INTERNATIONAL PLATFORM ON SUSTAINABLE FINANCE.

EU-GCC PARTNERSHIP WILL BE ALSO ESSENTIAL IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SECURITY AND SMOOTH GREEN TRANSITION AS REFLECTED IN THE EU’S EXTERNAL ENERGY STRATEGY published in parallel with this Communication. Endowed with some of the best solar and wind resources in the world, GCC COUNTRIES HAVE A CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL TO LEAD THE TRANSITION TOWARDS SUSTAINABILITY AND DECARBONIZATION, INCLUDING BY ENHANCING ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND APPLYING THE ENERGY EFFICIENCY FIRST PRINCIPLE. EU-GULF COOPERATION WILL FOCUS ON KNOWHOW, TECHNOLOGY, REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS, STANDARDS AND INVESTMENTS, AMONG OTHER ISSUES. The Gulf countries can contribute to limiting the volatility of markets impacted by the energy transition not least through increased exports of Liquefied Natural Gas as an alternative to pipeline gas.

However, the Gulf region can also play a role as a producer and supplier of decarbonized energy, including renewable hydrogen and electricity. The Communication RE Power EU underlines the need to replace gas by higher levels of renewable energy including hydrogen. This, combined with the Gulf partners’ aspirations to become lead exporters, will bring new avenues for EU-GCC cooperation. The EU will explore opportunities for production and trade to enable the undistorted imports of renewable hydrogen in particular, building upon existing projects, notably in the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean region. 

An integrated gas and hydrogen infrastructure, hydrogen storage facilities and port infrastructure are necessary in both the EU and the Gulf countries. The EU is already working on a Mediterranean Green Hydrogen Partnership, and will explore with Gulf countries opportunities for concluding Green Hydrogen Partnerships. The EU will also promote a closer cooperation on electric connectivity and sustainable transport connections. Opportunities will be also pursued for triangular cooperation on clean and just energy transition, in particular with Africa, Asia and the broader Middle East. The EU will promote regional energy integration and cooperation.

 The EU and Gulf countries could also work together further on environment issues. The conservation and sustainable use and management of the seas, marine resources and water management, including water-energy nexus, and the need to address marine pollution in particular in densely urbanized coastal areas are areas of shared interest. GIVEN THE VOLUME OF SHIPPING FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE ARABIAN SEA TO THE MEDITERRANEAN, THE EU WILL EXPLORE FURTHER COOPERATION ON REDUCING EMISSION LEVELS FROM MARITIME TRANSPORT. Opportunities for cooperation in fisheries and aquaculture, desalination, and coastal tourism could be also further explored.

Further EU-GCC exchanges on the global biodiversity framework for action should also take place, leading to an expansion of the current marine protected areas in the Gulf. Other aspects that could be covered include addressing all drivers of biodiversity loss, restoring ecosystems, developing and implementing strategies against invasive species and working together with other sectors, such as transport and industry.

The EU will share expertise with Gulf countries on circular economy, such as measures for waste reduction and sustainable waste management and on recycling, and will work closely with them on a legally-binding instrument to end plastic pollution.  

The EU will also work together with the Gulf countries to build fair, sustainable, healthy and environmentally friendly food systems – in line with the EU’s Farm to Fork Strategy, the Communication on Safeguarding food security and reinforcing the resilience of food systems, aiming to enhance global food security. This is of particular importance in light of the impact of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and its consequences on global food markets. The EU and the Gulf countries will also further cooperate with the aim to combat desertification and deforestation, as well as on developing arid climate agri-technology.

The partnership with the Gulf in these fields will focus on bilateral and regional levels. FRAMEWORKS LIKE THE SAUDI AND THE MIDDLE EAST GREEN INITIATIVES COULD OFFER AN IMPORTANT AVENUE FOR DIALOGUE. The EU will also promote triangular cooperation, of which the Israel Jordan-UAE desalination-electricity project is a good example.

Action points:

1. SET UP A DEDICATED EU-GCC ENERGY AND CLIMATE EXPERT GROUP TO INTENSIFY POLICY DIALOGUE ON GREEN TRANSITION AT REGIONAL AND BILATERAL LEVEL.
2. Hold an annual EU-GCC Ministerial meeting on the green transition, complemented by a related private sector initiatives (e.g. Green Business Forum), to identify further tangible joint initiatives.
3. Further facilitate regulatory cooperation and infrastructure interconnections, support renewable energy development and energy efficiency and production and promote the creation of competitive markets enabling trade in renewable energy without export restrictions or price distortions.
4. DEVELOP ENGAGEMENT ON SUSTAINABLE FINANCE, INCLUDING IN PARTNERSHIP WITH EUROPEAN AND GULF-BASED FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
5. Set up a dedicated facility allowing expertise to be exchanged on the policy areas relating to the GREEN TRANSITION, THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH MODELS AND HELP OPERATIONALIZE EU-GCC COOPERATION ON GREEN TRANSITION.
6. Hold a high-level seminar on the green transition looking ahead to COP27 and COP28.
7. Launch a marine protection initiative around the Arabian Peninsula aiming to create protected areas and joint mechanisms to prevent the pollution of the marine environment and improve marine science cooperation and disaster relief/risk reduction.

A PARTNERSHIP FOR REGIONAL STABILITY AND GLOBAL SECURITY PRESERVING PEACE, SECURITY AND STABILITY IN THE WIDER GULF REGION IS A KEY PRIORITY FOR THE EU, AND AN IMPORTANT SHARED INTEREST WITH THE GCC AND ITS MEMBER STATES AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL AND REGIONAL PARTNERS.

Instability in the wider Gulf region has a direct bearing on the EU’s security and economic interests, and reverberates not only in the EU’s neighborhood but also in other areas of common interest such as the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. With Gulf states increasingly active in their own region and in the broader Middle East and beyond, it is clear that LASTING STABILITY IN THE EU’S BROADER NEIGHBORHOOD WILL REQUIRE CLOSE COOPERATION WITH THEM.

There have been positive steps taken by the Gulf countries recently, such as the Al Ula Agreement marking an end to the ‘GCC rift’, the NORMALIZATION AGREEMENTS WITH ISRAEL and the steps of some GCC Member States to resume or deepen dialogue with Iran.

These developments offer an OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GULF COUNTRIES TO IMPROVE WIDER REGIONAL STABILITY BASED ON RESPECT FOR THE PRINCIPLES OF THE UNITED NATIONS CHARTER AND INTERNATIONAL LAW AND ON AN AGREED SET OF SHARED INTERESTS AS WELL AS UNIVERSAL PRINCIPLES AND VALUES, SUCH AS GOOD RELATIONS, NON-INTERFERENCE IN DOMESTIC AFFAIRS, PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF DISPUTES AND NON-PROLIFERATION, AND THROUGH BUILDING PROGRESSIVELY A REGIONAL SECURITY ARCHITECTURE.

 It would also offer a useful platform for engaging on broader societal issues and economic integration. The EU, as a successful peace project itself, can be a valuable partner in supporting these goals. 

The EU coordinates efforts to ensure the full and effective implementation of the JCPOA, which can contribute to comprehensive and lasting efforts to ensure that the Gulf region remains permanently free of nuclear weapons and in itself can help address other regional issues. A positive conclusion of the Vienna negotiations aimed at facilitating a return to the JCPOA by the United States and resumption of full implementation of all JCPOA commitments by the United States and Iran could provide a platform for further efforts to reduce tensions and build confidence in the wider region.

Of course, the countries of the region – on both sides of the Gulf – should lead and guide such efforts, but the EU and the wider international community can and should offer support and advice. In this context, the EU will be ready to engage with the GCC, its Member States, with Iran and other key states in the region, in a gradual and inclusive approach, in full transparency and with the ultimate objective of DEVELOPING ARRANGEMENTS WHICH PROVIDE FOR GREATER SECURITY FOR ALL COUNTRIES IN THE GULF REGION.

To this end, the EU could work on dialogue, transparency and confidence building measures and share expertise in fields such as maritime safety/security; conflict prevention and mediation, disaster preparedness and response; chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) safety; countering terrorism; cyber security and countering disinformation.

 In addition, A DEDICATED POLITICAL-MILITARY DIALOGUE WITH GCC AND ITS MEMBER STATES COULD FACILITATE THE EXCHANGE OF INFORMATION ON MILITARY EXERCISES, POLICY AND BUDGETS, VOLUNTARY MEASURES TO IMPROVE TRANSPARENCY IN ARMAMENTS, ARMS CONTROL ARRANGEMENTS IN SUPPORT OF THE CONVENTION ON CERTAIN CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND THE OTTAWA-ANTI-PERSONNEL MINE BAN CONVENTION, AND ON THE EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION OF NON-PROLIFERATION AGREEMENTS. THIS DIALOGUE COULD BE COMPLEMENTED BY MILITARY-TO-MILITARY CONTACTS.

These activities could in the medium and long-term lead to a structured EU-facilitated dialogue process that could gradually contribute to a MORE INCLUSIVE REGIONAL SECURITY ARCHITECTURE. The regional Baghdad Conference on Cooperation and Partnership, and its follow-up process with EU involvement, could serve as a useful example for region-led processes.

 Improved cooperation on maritime security, on the basis of international law, could help enhance the rules-based order at sea, including freedom of navigation and overflight. This could include de-confliction channels, sharing maritime information, incident prevention and codes of conduct. EU Operation ATALANTA’s growing regional presence creates a space for such engagement. The EU could also explore additional cooperation through the European led maritime awareness in the Strait of Hormuz operation, which aims to support a safer navigation environment and de-escalation. An EU-Coordinated Maritime Presence in the North Western Indian Ocean, and the creation of the EU Maritime Area of Interest, in line with the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy,  could also provide a wider platform for this work, in coordination with international and regional partners.

The EU and the GCC could exchange good practices in disaster prevention and preparedness, in particular through improved cooperation between the EU’s Emergency Response Coordination Centre and the GCC Emergency Management Centre. Where appropriate, the EU will also propose TECHNICAL EXCHANGES WITH OTHER GULF COUNTRIES, THE LEAGUE OF ARAB STATES AND THE ARAB COORDINATION MECHANISM FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION to contribute to regional cross-border capacity building.

Given the increasing role played by nuclear energy in the GCC countries, the EU could envisage enhancing the collaboration on nuclear safety and nuclear emergency preparedness and response, including on public health consequences of intentional or unintentional CBRN threats. In particular, nuclear safety could benefit from dedicated technical support on key areas such as nuclear safety culture or accident management, whereas nuclear emergency preparedness and response could be addressed through strengthening the emergency information exchange between the EU and the GCC, in line with ongoing projects on this matter. Such lines of collaboration should take place between the EU and the GCC Emergency Management Centre, and could also eventually include other Gulf countries.

Further consolidation between regional partners and the EU in relation to CBRN, CBRN medical countermeasures and the governance of CBRN materials could be explored. In addition to its current focus on biological preparedness, chemical safety and security, and emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the CBRN Centre should propose regional activities on strategic export controls on dual-use goods.

THE EU AND GULF COUNTRIES HAVE ALREADY STEPPED UP THEIR COORDINATION ON REGIONAL CRISES IN THE BROADER GULF, MIDDLE EAST REGION AND THE NORTH AND HORN OF AFRICA. PEACE AND STABILITY IN THIS WIDER REGION ARE A STRONG SHARED INTEREST, whether in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Libya, Lebanon, Israel/Palestine or Somalia, Ethiopia or Sudan. The EU also values GCC and its Member States’ important role in international mediation. Recent examples include the role played by Qatar with regard to Afghanistan and Chad, the KSA and UAE in the Horn of Africa, Kuwait on Lebanon and Oman in Yemen. THE EU IS READY TO PROPOSE CLOSER COOPERATION AND THE SHARING OF METHODOLOGIES, EXPERIENCE AND BEST PRACTICES ON CONFLICT PREVENTION AND MEDIATION, AT BOTH BILATERAL AND REGIONAL LEVEL.

Deepening counter-terrorism engagement with the Gulf countries can be envisaged on issues such as countering violent extremism and radicalization, financial support for extremism, exportation of extremist literature, and terrorist threats from the region and beyond. THE EU WILL EXPLORE AVENUES FOR STEPPING UP ITS SUPPORT FOR EXCHANGES OF BEST PRACTICE TO COUNTER EXTREMIST NARRATIVES AND PROMOTE THE PRODUCTIVE USE OF TRADITIONAL AND SOCIAL MEDIA, including closer collaboration with existing organizations.

Stronger cooperation could also include joint activities to increase awareness of legal and institutional frameworks to counter terrorism financing and combat anti-money laundering. The EU will also continue to work with the Gulf countries to advance and promote a global, open, stable and secure cyberspace with a particular focus on cybersecurity and protecting critical infrastructure against cyberattacks.

 The EU will also explore possibilities to improve judicial and law enforcement cooperation in order to better combat serious cross-border organized crime, particularly in relation to the fight against terrorism, money laundering investigations, asset recovery and combatting trafficking in human beings. Exchange of best practices and support under the EU Global Facilities being offered to assist international compliance in relation to combating money laundering and tackling financing for terrorism, notably in order to comply with recommendations from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Cooperation could be stepped up with Eurojust, potentially through setting up contact points, and with the European Public Prosecutors Office.

Both the EU and the Gulf regions have been affected by hybrid attacks, such as artificially induced migratory flows and terrorism, including terror attacks using drones and missiles. EU and Gulf countries should further cooperate to tackle such challenges effectively. In the perspective of addressing such hybrid threats the EU is also strengthening its strategic communication to detect, analyze and address foreign information manipulation and interference that may fuel regional tensions. THE EU WILL WORK TOWARDS FRAMEWORKS TO SUPPORT FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION, MEDIA FREEDOM AND PLURALISM WHICH ARE AT THE CORE OF HEALTHY INFORMATION ENVIRONMENTS, INCLUDING BY SUPPORTING SOCIETAL RESILIENCE IN THE REGION AND RAISING AWARENESS OF THE INCREASING USE OF FOREIGN INFORMATION MANIPULATION AND INTERFERENCE AS A FOREIGN POLICY TOOL. IMPLEMENTING MEASURES TO COUNTER DISINFORMATION AND MISINFORMATION WILL REMAIN A KEY ASPECT OF THIS APPROACH.

Action points:

1. Initiate and further strengthen political and dedicated dialogues and coordination on issues pertaining to REGIONAL AND GLOBAL STABILITY AND SECURITY, including on increasing resilience and response against hybrid threats.
2. Propose the appointment of an EU Special Representative on Gulf security.
3. Develop a cooperation mechanism for enhanced maritime security, building on Operation ATALANTA, EMASoH and the Coordinated Maritime Presence in the North Western Indian Ocean.
4. Strengthen technical support in the area of nuclear safety, and promote collaboration in the area of nuclear emergency preparedness and response between the EU and GCC EMC.
5. Step up EU-GCC cooperation on Countering Terrorism (CT) and Countering Violent Extremism (CEV) between the EU and the GCC and its member states.
6. Develop mutually beneficial cooperation on disaster preparedness and response between the EU Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) and the GCC Emergency Management Centre.
7. Initiate a dialogue on cyber security.

5. A global humanitarian and development partnership Gulf donors and their financial institutions are major providers of Official Development Assistance for humanitarian aid and development cooperation, and their aid is primarily bilateral. Better, more systematic engagement with Gulf donors, notably regarding delivery through multilateral agencies and a burden-sharing approach, is essential to address global challenges and in particular the unprecedented challenges to the international humanitarian system. These include the widening funding gap between rapidly growing needs and the financial resources available, increasing disregard for International Humanitarian Law and protracted conflict situations.

Gulf countries are substantial donors of humanitarian aid. The EU will step up its engagement with the Gulf countries on funding, efficiency, quality aid and overall support for the international humanitarian system, as an integrated part of the EU-Gulf political dialogue. In this context, specific attention will be paid to countries facing protracted crises. The EU will also encourage Gulf donors to step up their engagement and multiannual funding towards the UN-COORDINATED GLOBAL HUMANITARIAN SYSTEM AND THE RELEVANT UN AGENCIES, INCLUDING THE UNITED NATIONS RELIEF AND WORKS AGENCY, WHICH IS KEY FOR THE STABILITY OF THE MIDDLE EAST REGION.

Gulf countries have also a specific role to play in terms of promoting and applying International Humanitarian Law in the region and beyond, given their geographical and/or cultural proximity and influence on some of the most acute crises. The EU will step up its dialogue and advocacy actions with Gulf donors to promote respect for International Humanitarian Law and humanitarian principles to facilitate access to and the effective delivery of humanitarian assistance and protection of civilians. The EU encourages Gulf countries’ participation in relevant initiatives to develop humanitarian standards and guidelines for the transparent implementation of these guidelines, based on shared experiences of crises such as those in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, the Rohingyas, and Afghanistan.

The EU will also seek stronger partnerships with Gulf countries, Arab financial institutions and regional bodies including the ORGANIZATION FOR ISLAMIC COOPERATION (OIC), TO TACKLE THE UNDERLYING POLITICAL AND STRUCTURAL DRIVERS OF CONFLICTS, AND TO BETTER LINK POLITICAL DIALOGUE, RELIEF AND LONGER-TERM DEVELOPMENT IN A HUMANITARIAN-DEVELOPMENT-PEACE NEXUS. The EU will particularly explore the potential for joint integrated approaches to addressing fragility in the Middle East/North Africa region as well as in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel, and Central Asia, including Afghanistan. There will be dedicated exchanges on the root causes of humanitarian crises in multilateral fora such as the Arab-OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) dialogue and with the Arab Coordination Group. 

As regards development cooperation, Gulf partners are strongly engaged in areas such as infrastructure, renewable energy, health, education, and recent contributions to the COVAX mechanism. This opens opportunities for potential partnerships in many areas. As a first step, increasing coordination work with Gulf donors and their financial institutions is taking place in partner countries of mutual concern and internationally. The construction of the Gaza central desalination plant is considered a flagship example of cooperation between the EU and its Arab partners.

The EU will further step up policy dialogue and donor coordination with Gulf donors at multilateral level, notably within the OECD Arab-DAC dialogue on development. The EU will push to reform this dialogue to make it more effective, building on the Team Europe approach, better aligning procedures, social and environmental safeguards and aid effectiveness.  

In addition, the EU will step up its relations with regional organizations and Gulf financial institutions, especially the ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK AND THE ARAB COORDINATION GROUP, ENGAGING ON PRIORITIES AND PROGRAMMING EXERCISES AND ENCOURAGING PARTNERSHIPS WITH EUROPEAN FINANCE INSTITUTIONS. The EU will in particular explore investment opportunities within EU policies and initiatives such as RE Power EU, the European Green Deal and the Global Gateway.

Under Global Gateway, the EU and Gulf partners could explore joint initiatives in third countries through triangular cooperation, financial support, capacity building and technical assistance. Moreover, the Neighborhood Development and International Cooperation Instrument (NDICI)-Global Europe rapid response pillar offers opportunities to address joint foreign policy priorities through policy dialogue.

Action points:

1. Organize an EU-GCC Ministerial Meeting on humanitarian assistance in 2023.
2. Promote the effective delivery of need-based humanitarian assistance and overall support for the international humanitarian system and promote respect for International Humanitarian Law and humanitarian principles. Explore synergies in humanitarian logistics operations and opportunities for parallel funding of UN led projects in crises of mutual interest
3. Step up policy dialogue and donor coordination with Gulf donors at multilateral level, notably within the OECD Arab-DAC dialogue on development.
4. Identify opportunities for cooperation on Global Gateway initiatives and promote Gulf partners’ collaboration with EU institutions, Member States, financial institutions and the private sector, reflecting the Team Europe approach.

A partnership for people.  Ongoing societal and economic transformations in the Gulf region offer a wealth of opportunities for cooperation, notably TO SUPPORT THE AMBITIOUS TRANSFORMATIVE VISIONS ANNOUNCED BY THE GULF COUNTRIES. Driven by economic diversification and the growing number of increasingly engaged and ‘globalized’ young people, Gulf countries are implementing domestic social development policies. These long-term policies are often accompanied by social reforms, with the potential to mark a turning point in these societies, notably in relation to women’s rights, labour issues (e.g. dismantling the kefala system for migrant workers) and FREEDOM OF RELIGION AND INTERFAITH DIALOGUE.

While human rights, democratization and rule of law related challenges remain, the EU can cooperate with the GCC in accompanying such reform efforts, building on bilateral human rights dialogues with GCC countries and facilitating people-to-people contacts, especially for young people, to deepen mutual understanding and promote trust between societies in both regions around successful cooperation activities. In this regard, the EU will share its experience in promoting inclusive dialogue with civil society. 

The EU is keen to support the work being done by the GCC countries, including through EU cooperation instruments, to strengthen respect for the rule of law and good governance, in order to support transparency, accountability and trust in the institutions. The EU can promote and share its experience of inclusive dialogue with civil society and social partners in the context of the implementation of the social aspects of the GCC countries’ national visions.

In particular, THE EU STRONGLY ENCOURAGES GCC COUNTRIES TO LIVE UP TO THEIR INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS ON HUMAN RIGHTS, INCLUDING TO RATIFY RELEVANT UN HUMAN RIGHT TREATIES, ACTIVELY SUPPORT THE WORK OF THE UN HUMAN RIGHTS OFFICE AND THE UN SPECIAL PROCEDURES, FULLY COOPERATE WITH UN HUMAN RIGHTS MECHANISMS and ratify and implement International Labour Organization conventions and recommendations.

The EU will continue to defend and promote the right to freedom of opinion and expression, including the importance of the protection of journalists and the independence of the media. The EU stands ready to share best practices, provide technical assistance and offer expertise as appropriate, building on the regular structured human rights and sectoral dialogues between the EU and the GCC countries, which have proven to be a constructive avenue for frank exchanges on human rights, including on individual cases of concern.

 THE EU STANDS BY THE PRINCIPLE THAT HUMAN RIGHTS APPLY BOTH ONLINE AND OFFLINE. THE EU ENCOURAGES GULF COUNTRIES TO IMPLEMENT LEGISLATION AND SAFEGUARDS TO PROTECT PEOPLE FROM UNLAWFUL OR UNNECESSARY SURVEILLANCE AND DATA COLLECTION. The EU has exports controls, notably in the dual-use area where civilian technologies have potential military or security uses.

These rules contain specific provisions to ensure that traded DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES ARE USED LEGITIMATELY, RESPECTING HUMAN RIGHTS. The EU stands ready to share expertise with its Gulf partners as well as to address jointly the need for the INTRODUCTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF INTERNATIONAL LEGAL STANDARDS PERTAINING TO DIGITAL RIGHTS, AT MULTILATERAL LEVEL.

The EU intends also to strengthen its engagement to promote gender equality and women’s empowerment, in close cooperation with governments, civil society, the private sector and other key stakeholders in the Gulf region. Improved partnerships in this area may in particular promote access for women and girls to education and training, health, and ensure they have equal legal capacity and access to justice.

Promotion of women’s participation and representation in employment, politics, governance and civic engagement, and prevention of and combating sexual and gender-based discrimination and violence, is a promising area of EU engagement. The EU will continue to encourage a safe environment that empowers civil society, girls and women’s rights organizations, human rights defenders, peace-builders and female journalists.

COOPERATION AND INTER-CULTURAL AND INTER-FAITH EXCHANGES CAN IMPROVE MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING AND TRUST AND, AT THE SAME TIME, ARE VECTORS OF TOLERANCE AND PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE. For instance, the ABRAHAMIC FAMILY HOUSE IN ABU DHABI IS AN APPLAUDABLE EXAMPLE OF SUCH EXCHANGES IN THE GCC REGION. Also, the EU National Institutes for Culture, located in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE, continue to promote activities in various fields such as fashion, film, music, architecture and design, and visual arts. The EU and GCC states also invested in the protection of cultural heritage in recent years, which offers opportunities for intensified dialogue and joint actions.

The EU can further support cross-regional ties in education, vocational training, skills development and civic participation through the Erasmus+ programme. In 2021-2027, in the field of higher education, Erasmus+ will offer possibilities for partner institutions in the Gulf to develop curricula such as teaching modules on EU-related matters, via the Jean Monnet actions.

 Higher education institutions from the region will also be able to join academic consortia with the EU and other international partners, to deliver integrated Master’s degree programmes via the Erasmus Mundus Joint Masters. In addition, the International Credit Mobility, which facilitates short-term exchanges for academic students and staff, and the Erasmus Mundus Design Measures, which offer the opportunity to co-design a joint Master’s degree, are now also accessible to partner institutions in the Gulf region.

 In the framework of the 2022 European Year of Youth, the EU Delegations in the Gulf are encouraging these kinds of mobility opportunities for the region’s young people in the fields of higher education and research. This will be complemented by activities by the Erasmus+ Students and Alumni associations, together with the possibility offered for Gulf countries to set up Erasmus+ national focal points.

 Joint promotional efforts can also improve EU-Gulf cooperation on research, for example by supporting participation by researchers from the Gulf in Marie Sklodowska-Curie actions, including international doctoral networks and staff exchanges.

 Consular protection is increasingly relevant given the rising number of EU citizens that reside in or travel to the Gulf. Better cooperation between the EU and its Member States and authorities in the Gulf could build on the established arrangements, including on consular crisis preparedness and responses.

Many citizens of GCC countries reside or own property in the EU or study at European universities. The EU recognizes the GCC countries’ strong interest in being included in the EU’s list of visa-free countries. The EU also sees as its own interest to PROMOTE PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE CONTACTS AND TRAVEL BETWEEN THE EU AND THE GCC COUNTRIES. The United Arab Emirates obtained visa free in 2015. A proposal for the exemption of the nationals of Qatar and Kuwait has been presented by the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament. For the remaining GCC countries, with a view to promoting the partnership between the two regions and strengthening the already dense political, economic, research, educational, cultural and societal exchanges, the Commission will rapidly engage in technical discussions to ensure fulfilment of relevant criteria in view of ultimately achieving visa exemption for all GCC countries, a shared interest for the GCC and the EU.

Meanwhile, the EU continues to work towards reducing the burden for visa applicants from GCC countries, via local adaptation of its visa rules and towards systematically issuing multiple-entry visas with a long validity (valid for up to 5 years) for travelers who do not present any specific risks. The proposal on digitalizing the procedure for issuing Schengen visas will make the visa procedure largely paperless and contactless, and thereby more timesaving and cost-efficient for applicants.

Action points:

1. Swift launch of technical discussions with the remaining visa required GCC countries on visa exemption. Facilitate the issuing of multiple-entry visas with a long validity. 
2. Strengthen exchanges on migration and mobility notably for youth, culture, and sports to bring people together and make societies more cohesive.
3. Step up human rights dialogues with Gulf partners and follow up activities and promote inclusive dialogue with civil society. Particularly promote gender equality and women’s empowerment.
4. DEVELOP COOPERATION ON INTER-CULTURAL AND INTER-FAITH DIALOGUE TO FOSTER HUMAN FRATERNITY, TOLERANCE AND PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE.
5. Improve GCC-EU cooperation on governance on issues such as fighting corruption, promoting transparency, and ensuring accountability.
6. Step up EU-GCC cooperation on education, vocational training, scientific research, civic participation through the Erasmus+ programme and the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions.
7. Step up CULTURAL AND PUBLIC DIPLOMACY TO RAISE AWARENESS AND MAKE THE EU MORE VISIBLE IN THE GCC COUNTRIES TO IMPROVE MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING. 

A stronger institutional partnership Structured cooperation with the GCC and its members is governed by the Cooperation Agreement concluded in 1989, and bilateral Cooperation Arrangements between the European External Action Service and the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of the six GCC countries. This framework encompasses various formats for political and sectoral consultation and cooperation and exchanges on regional developments at different levels. HUMAN RIGHTS DIALOGUES HAVE BEEN LAUNCHED WITH UAE, Bahrein, Qatar, Kuwait and SAUDI ARABIA.

There is increased momentum and a strong mutual interest in ensuring EU-GCC relations have a more strategic focus and in strengthening the institutional arrangements for cooperation. The EU will build on the existing framework combining bilateral engagement with strengthened regional partnership and, where possible, developing flagship actions. In this vein, the EU could explore the possibility of a Summit with the GCC.

The EU will increase the visibility and efficiency of EU action by opening a Delegation in Qatar in 2022. The EU is exploring the possibility of opening a Delegation in Oman and nominating an EU Ambassador to the GCC mirroring the GCC representation to the EU. 

The EU intends to explore the possibility of negotiating Partnership Agreements with GCC countries, which would provide a more solid and comprehensive framework for institutional engagement.  

The organization of sectoral ministerial meetings between the EU and GCC on issues of mutual interest, such as trade and investments, economic diversification, transport, green transition and digitalization, will improve the bi-regional framework. This new format will complement existing arrangements such as the EU-GCC Joint Council and the EU-GCC troika meeting, organized in the margins of the UNGA. It will ensure the implementation of the new EU-GCC Joint action Plan adopted at the last EU-GCC ministerial on 21 February 2022.

THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN ANNUAL EU-GCC POLITICAL DIALOGUE WOULD HELP ADDRESS THE GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS THAT AFFECT THE TWO REGIONS, AS WELL AS POLITICAL ASPECTS OF COOPERATION, ADVOCACY AND CONFLICT RESOLUTION. IN THIS FRAMEWORK, THE EU AND GULF COUNTRIES COULD ALSO PROMOTE CROSS-REGIONAL COOPERATION, NOTABLY WITH THE SOUTHERN NEIGHBOURHOOD REGION, AND ENGAGE WITH OTHER REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS THE LEAGUE OF ARAB STATES, THE UNION FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN AND THE ORGANIZATION OF ISLAMIC COOPERATION.

Additionally, the EU will pursue cooperation with the GCC General Secretariat through workshops, peer exchanges and study tours, based on EU institutional and organizational experience in areas of interest for the GCC General Secretariat, such as policy making and coordination and public diplomacy. 

Action points:

1. Further strengthen EU-GCC institutional engagement by holding an ANNUAL EU-GCC POLITICAL DIALOGUE, annual consultation on multilateral issues and sectoral ministerial meetings, starting with the green transition and coordination on humanitarian action.
2. Explore the possibility of NEGOTIATING BILATERAL PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENTS WITH THE SIX GCC MEMBER STATES.
3. Step up institutional and organizational exchanges with the GCC General Secretariat.
4. Pursue the implementation of joint activities in relation to health, trade and investment, migration and mobility, education and research, energy, energy efficiency and climate change, digitalization and disaster preparedness and response. 

Conclusion/The way forward.

 THE EU WILL USE ALL ITS TOOLS AND INSTRUMENTS TO ENSURE THE EFFICIENT, EFFECTIVE AND SWIFT IMPLEMENTATION OF THIS STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH THE GULF. CONTINUOUS AND FORWARD-LOOKING DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE EU AND ITS GULF PARTNERS WILL BE MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL ON ALL ISSUES. THE EU WILL EMPHASIZE ONGOING WORK ON THE GREEN TRANSITION, ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION AND SOCIAL REFORMS.

The EU will pay particular attention to rule of law and human rights and in this context to designing actions focusing on the empowerment of women and young people. THE EU WILL STRENGTHEN ITS COOPERATION WITH THE GULF COUNTRIES, USING ALL APPROPRIATE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS, in particular the Neighborhood Development and International Cooperation Instrument (NDICI)-Global Europe, and will engage through public diplomacy to reinforce mutual knowledge and understanding. 

The Commission and the High Representative invite the European Parliament and the Council to endorse the approach set out in this Joint Communication and to work together on implementing and reviewing its actions.

EU-GCC ENHANCED POLITICAL DIALOGUE

COUNTRIES FROM THE COOPERATION COUNCIL FOR THE ARAB STATES OF THE GULF (GCC) ARE PUTTING IN PLACE AMBITIOUS ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION AND SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION PROGRAMMES. THE EU, AS A PARTNER OF CHOICE, ACCOMPANIES THIS PROCESS, GIVEN ITS STRONG TRADE AND POLITICAL TIES WITH THE REGION AND INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES AS WELL AS ITS STAKE IN THE REGIONAL STABILITY. FOR THIS REASON, THE EU AND ITS GULF PARTNERS SIGNED BILATERAL COOPERATION ARRANGEMENTS.

This shows the strong commitment from both sides to a vibrant dialogue through information sharing, experts’ meetings and consultations to enhance mutual understanding.

THE EU ALSO SUPPORTS REGION-TO-REGION DIALOGUE AND REGIONAL INTEGRATION AS THE CORNERSTONE OF FUTURE COOPERATION IN THE GCC AND OF REGIONAL PEACE AND STABILITY.

Following the EU Joint Communication on a ‘Strategic Partnership with the Gulf’, THE INITIATIVE STRENGTHENS THE RELATIONSHIP AND THE ALLIANCE BETWEEN THE EU AND THE GCC INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES AND REGION BASED ON MUTUAL INTEREST. This is achieved by enhancing the EU-GCC political dialogue, cooperation and outreach, and by combining support to the political dialogue with a strong people-to-people outreach.

To this end, the project has five (5) goals:

1. helps design and implement country specific strategies and EU-GCC regional engagement strategy to accompany the roll out of the country national visions and the bilateral and regional Cooperation Arrangements;
2. supports the provision of policy analysis and studies, which is gender and youth responsive where possible;
3. supports the regional and bilateral meetings;
4. boosts outreach and exchange between governmental and non-governmental stakeholders from both regions through thematic platforms or other relevant mechanisms;
5. designs communication campaigns in traditional and social media.

Launched in December 2020, this €3.5 million project is funded by the European Union through its Partnership Instrument. This is one of the THREE PROJECTS SUPPORTING FURTHER COOPERATION BETWEEN THE EU AND THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC) BOTH REGIONALLY AND AT AN INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY LEVEL. THE OTHER PROJECTS BEING THE EU-GCC DIALOGUE ON ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION AND THE EU-GCC CLEAN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY NETWORK.

As countries of the Arabian peninsula are putting in place ambitious economic diversification and social transformation programmes, THERE IS A STRONGER NEED FOR THE EU AND ITS PARTNERS FROM THE GULF TO STRENGTHEN TIES AND INCREASE MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING. BY SUPPORTING POLITICAL DIALOGUE THROUGH CONCRETE ACTIVITIES AS WELL AS COOPERATION AND OUTREACH BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES, THE ENHANCED EU-GCC POLITICAL DIALOGUE PROJECT CONTRIBUTES TO A STRONGER RELATIONSHIP AND HELPS STRENGTHEN THE ALLIANCE BETWEEN THE EU AND THE GCC COUNTRIES AND THE REGION, BASED ON MUTUAL INTERESTS.

THE CRAZY BEAST! THE VISION OF DANIEL 7

Daniel 7 easily divides into two sections; (a) the dream (Dan 7:1-14), and (b) the interpretation (Dan 7:15-28).

First, here is the cast of characters from the vision with my identification for each:

Beast 1: the lion with wings. This is Babylon/Nebuchadnezzar.

Beast 2: the lopsided bear. This is Persia—the nation in which Esther lived, and from which Cyrus let the Jewish people return home, etc.

Beast 3: a leopard with four heads. This is Alexander the Great and the kingdoms belonging to the four generals who succeeded him after his death.

BEAST 4: IRON TEETH + TEN HORNS + ONE LITTLE HORN. THIS IS THE ROMAN EMPIRE IN THREE DERIVATIVE PHASES; (A) THE HISTORICAL KINGDOM OF JESUS’ DAY, (B) THE INTERIM PERIOD OF NATIONS WHICH IN SOME WAY DERIVE FROM THE HISTORICAL ROMAN EMPIRE, AND (C) THE KINGDOM OF ANTICHRIST OF THE LAST DAYS, WHICH GROWS FROM AMONG THE NATIONS FROM THE INTERIM PHASE.

ANCIENT OF DAYS: GOD THE FATHER.

SON OF MAN: JESUS—THIS IS HIS FAVORITE WAY TO DESCRIBE HIMSELF.

Second, forget the first three kingdoms. Daniel is simply not interested in the first three kingdoms in this vision—he only asks the angel for clarification about the fourth (Dan 7:19-20)—so they are not relevant. I believe the “four beasts” in Daniel 7 are parallel to the four-fold statue at Daniel 2, which means the first kingdom remains Babylon (Dan 2:36-28; cp. Dan 7:2-4, 17-18). A different vision addresses the second and third visions (Daniel 8), but they are not the issue here. Third, focus on the fourth kingdom.

The fourth kingdom is “terrifying and frightening and very powerful.” It also has TEN HORNS (DAN 7:7), about which the angelic guide later explains.

As Daniel stares at this awful creature, pondering the meaning of the 10 horns, “there before me was another horn, a little one, which came up among them; and three of the first horns were uprooted before Whatever this “little horn” is, it doesn’t represent a revolution from without but the gradual rise of a new power-center from within. This last horn “had eyes like the eyes of a human being and a mouth that spoke boastfully” (Dan 7:8). THE ANGELIC GUIDE WILL SOON ELABORATE ON THIS, BUT WE GET THE IMPRESSION OF INTELLIGENCE, SHREWDNESS, AND ARROGANCE.

As Daniel looks on in horror, he spies another vision in the heavens above. This one seems parallel to the rise of the fourth beast—it takes place at the same time. “[T]hrones were set in place, and the Ancient of Days took his seat” (Dan 7:9). This is a solemn, choreographed event. The Ancient of Days has snow white hair, a flaming throne with wheels ablaze, a river of molten fire flows from the chair, and “thousands upon thousands attended him; ten thousand times ten thousand stood before him. The court was seated, and the books were opened” (Dan 7:10). This is the same imagery Ezekiel used (Ezek 1), and that the apostle John later re-purposes (Rev 5:11, 20:11-15). In other words, the Ancient of Days is God, and the setting is a courtroom.

Then, like a person watching two screens at once, Daniel looks back to the first vision “because of the BOASTFUL WORDS THE HORN WAS SPEAKING” (Dan 7:11). He keeps looking “until the beast was slain and its body destroyed and thrown into the blazing fire,” (Dan 7:11). ITS DOOM RESEMBLES THAT OF THE ANTICHRIST FROM JOHN’S APOCALYPSE WHO IS TOSSED INTO THE LAKE OF FIRE AT JESUS’ SECOND COMING (REV 19:20).

Daniel now looks back at the second “screen” depicting the heavenly courtroom. He sees “one like a son of man, coming with the clouds of heaven” (Dan 7:13). “Son of man” is a woodenly translated phrase which means “person” or “human being.” Jesus often identifies Himself as this mysterious human figure in the context of His triumphant return to this sphere (Mt 16:27, 24:30; Lk 17:30). Once the Son of man arrives, He receives His eternal kingdom: “His dominion is an everlasting dominion that will not pass away, and his kingdom is one that will never be destroyed” (Dan 7:14). Jesus is the rock from Daniel 2 which smashes the evil kingdom and fills the whole earth (Dan 2:34-35, 44-45).

Yet, in Daniel’s vision, the Son of man arrives in the divine courtroom to receive His kingdom after or as the terrible beast is slain—suggesting an enthronement in the last days. This is the future great arrival for which the apostle Paul waits (1 Thess 2:19, 4:16-17)—meaning it hasn’t yet happened. The apostle John refers to this Daniel passage as a future event: “Look, he is coming with the clouds …” (Rev 1:7) and pairs it with a Zechariah quotation about a divine victory over evil (Zech 12:10)—an event that closely resembles those of Revelation 19 (cp. Zech 12:10–13:6).

EUROPEAN UNION LAUNCHES ‘EU-GCC GREEN TRANSITION PROJECT’ AT THE WORLD FUTURE ENERGY SUMMIT

In a significant step forward for clean energy and climate action, the European Union (EU) launched the EU-GCC Cooperation on Green Transition project. The event took place at the IRENA pavilion during the prestigious WORLD FUTURE ENERGY SUMMIT (WFES) in Abu Dhabi.

The project aims to create a JOINT PLATFORM TO EXCHANGE BEST PRACTICES AND EXPERTISE BETWEEN THE EU AND THE GCC STAKEHOLDERS, PROMOTING AND ADOPTING POLICIES AND TECHNOLOGIES THAT SUPPORT THE GCC’S GREEN TRANSITION, AND FOSTERING A COLLABORATIVE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN EU GREEN TECH COMPANIES AND THEIR COUNTERPARTS IN THE GULF REGION.

THE GREEN ENVIRONMENTAL DRAGON OF THE BEAST’S KINGDOM. MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN

The launch of the project signifies a turning point in the GLOBAL TRANSITION TOWARDS A CLEAN ENERGY FUTURE, MARKING A CRITICAL COMMITMENT TO COLLABORATION SETS A POWERFUL EXAMPLE FOR THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, PAVING THE WAY FOR A MORE SUSTAINABLE AND PROSPEROUS FUTURE FOR ALL.

COLLABORATION FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

The launch event featured keynote addresses from distinguished speakers, including H.E. Lucie Berger, Ambassador of the European Union to the United Arab Emirates, Mr Lukasz Kolinski Head of Unit Renewables and Energy System Integration at the European Commission, and Tarig Ahmed, Regional Programme Officer – MENA Region at IRENA. The speakers underscored the significance of INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION IN ADDRESSING GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGES AND HIGHLIGHTED THE TRANSFORMATIVE POTENTIAL OF THE EU-GCC COOPERATION ON THE GREEN TRANSITION PROJECT.

In her opening speech, H.E. Lucie Berger, Ambassador of the European Union to the United Arab Emirates, emphasized the project’s significance in the collective fight against climate change, highlighting the essential role of businesses from both the EU AND THE GCC COUNTRIES IN IMPLEMENTING THE GLOBAL TARGETS OF TRIPLING RENEWABLE ENERGY AND DOUBLING ENERGY EFFICIENCY. Enhancing the business environment, through this project can play a pivotal role in reaching those targets.

Lukasz Kolinski, Head of Unit Renewables and Energy System Integration, European Commission said: “COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE EU AND GCC ON GREEN TRANSITION IS ESSENTIAL FOR ACHIEVING OUR CLIMATE GOALS. THIS INITIATIVE WILL DRIVE INNOVATION, CREATE NEW OPPORTUNITIES, AND CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SUSTAINABLE FUTURE.”

Tarig Ahmed, the MENA Regional Programme Officer at IRENA, stated: “I strongly believe that THE EU-GCC COOPERATION ON GREEN TRANSITION PROJECT IS TIMELY AND ACTS AS A PIVOTAL INITIATIVE TO ENABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS AND ENCOURAGE REGIONAL COLLABORATION. THIS PROJECT IS AN ESSENTIAL MILESTONE TOWARDS ACHIEVING A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE FOR THE GCC REGION AND ULTIMATELY TO OUR PLANET.”

A CATALYST FOR CHANGE

A key event highlight, echoing this year’s theme of the IRENA General Assembly, was the roundtable discussion titled “Outcome of COP28: Infrastructure, Policies and Skills for Tripling Renewables and Accelerating the Energy Transition.” The discussion focused on how the EU and GCC can work together to develop robust infrastructure for significantly increasing renewable energy in the region, implement effective clean energy policies and equip their workforce with the necessary skills for the evolving energy landscape.

Additionally, the discussion explored avenues for knowledge sharing, technology transfer, and joint project development, paving the way for a more sustainable future.

THE EU-GCC COOPERATION ON GREEN TRANSITION PROJECT IS POISED TO CATALYSE CHANGE.

By fostering deeper collaboration, the project aims to increase the deployment of renewable energy sources significantly, stimulate environmental protection efforts, enhance economic growth and diversification, and strengthen resilience in the face of climate change impacts.

1ST EU-GCC GREEN TRANSITION FORUM SETS STAGE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE COLLABORATION

The forum brought together key stakeholders from government, business, and the academic sectors, creating a platform for the exchange of innovative ideas and policies designed to drive the green economy forward.

The European Union organised yesterday, 9 October, in Abu Dhabi the FIRST EU-GCC GREEN TRANSITION FORUM, UNDER THE EU-GCC COOPERATION FOR GREEN TRANSITION PROJECT. THIS EVENT MARKED THE BEGINNING OF A LONG-TERM, COLLABORATIVE INITIATIVE AIMED AT ADDRESSING THE SHARED ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES FACED BY BOTH THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU) AND THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC). Each year, the forum will take place in a different GCC capital, expanding and deepening the dialogue around the green transition and sustainable development.

The forum brought together key stakeholders from government, business, and the academic sectors, creating a platform for the exchange of innovative ideas and policies designed to drive the green economy forward. IN LINE WITH THE VISION SET FORTH IN THE EU JOINT COMMUNICATION ON STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH THE GULF, THIS EVENT SYMBOLISED THE COMMITMENT TO JOINT ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ADOPTION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS.

THE EU-GCC GREEN TRANSITION FORUM IS NOT ONLY AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIALOGUE BUT ALSO A NECESSARY STEP IN THE ONGOING PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN OUR REGIONS. As we work together to address climate challenges and unlock the vast opportunities that green transitions offer, FORUMS LIKE THIS ARE CRUCIAL TO BUILDING A RESILIENT AND SUSTAINABLE FUTURE FOR BOTH THE EU AND THE GCC STATES.

The forum comes at a particularly significant time, just days before the first-ever EU-GCC Summit in Brussels on 16 October, where leaders from both regions will address strategic areas of cooperation, including renewable energy and the green transition.

The EU-GCC Green Transition Forum covered a range of key topics, including advancements in renewable energy, strategies for reducing carbon emissions, the development of a renewable hydrogen market, and efficient resource management. Participants also had the opportunity to engage with successful case studies and models from both the EU and GCC regions, showcasing effective approaches to net-zero transitions and climate resilience.

TOWARDS A NEW ERA OF EUROPEAN DEFENCE: THE FIRST-EVER EU LIVE MILITARY EXERCISES.

“TODAY WE ARE CREATING A NEW PAGE FOR EUROPEAN DEFENCE”, DECLARED JOSEP BORRELL, THE EU HIGH REPRESENTATIVE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND SECURITY POLICY, ON THE FIRST-EVER EU LIVE MILITARY EXERCISES (MILEX) that are taking place in the Rota Naval base in Southern Spain this week (Euronews, 2023).

Around 2,800 military personnel from nine Member States – Austria, France, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Portugal and Romania and host country Spain – plus 25 aircraft, six ships and cyber assets are taking part in the exercises, which simulate an intervention in a third country that has requested EU assistance. They will include a landing on a beach to secure a port in the fictitious country and deploying land forces to rescue trapped civilians (The Brussels Times, 2023).

THE AIM OF THE EXERCISES IS TO TEST THE CAPABILITY AND PREPAREDNESS OF THE BLOC’S FUTURE 5,000-STRONG RAPID DEPLOYMENT CAPACITY (RDC), ESTABLISHED BY THE EU’S STRATEGIC COMPASS, THE FIRST MILITARY STRATEGY ENDORSED BY MEMBER STATES IN MARCH 2022 (EURACTIV, 2023). THE RDC RE-SHAPES THE EXISTING EU BATTLEGROUPS, A ROTATING ON-CALL UNIT COMPOSED OF MEMBER STATES’ ARMED FORCES. However, the lack of political will resulted in member states never deploying the unit during a crisis, instead preferring to rely on NATO or ad hoc coalitions (Euractiv, 2023).

ULTIMATELY, THE GOAL FOR THE EU IS TO HAVE A FULLY-FLEDGED MILITARY DEPLOYMENT FORCE BY 2025. THE ENSUING EXERCISES WILL OCCUR IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2024, MOST LIKELY IN GERMANY (Politico, 2023).

According to Lieutenant General Michel Van der Laan, the Director General of the European Union Military Staff (DG EUMS), the results of this joint operation will be the key to identify the gaps and improve the operational processes of the EU RDC, as well as a crucial point to enhance the interoperability of the latter (EEAS, 2023).

DOES THE EUROPEAN UNION NEED ITS OWN ARMY?

DEFENCE TECHNOLOGIES – TIME TO THINK BIG AGAIN

1. Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission

HRVP Blog – Discussing Europe’s technological sovereignty has become quite fashionable. It has been an important part of my role as High Representative. Recently, I attended a conference on technological sovereignty in defence in Spain. In a world of renewed conflicts and geopolitical rivalries, defence requires visionary leadership—including in advanced technologies. Europe’s industrial defence sector has great potential; our task is to unlock it.

On 20 September, I participated in the COTEC conference in Las Palmas, Spain, discussing the nexus between technology and defence with Cristina Garmendia, a former Spanish Minister of Science and Innovation. The Foundation for Technological Innovation (COTEC) promotes innovation as an economic and social driver and is co-presided by the King of Spain, and the Presidents of Italy and Portugal. Here are my three main takeaways from that discussion:

DESPITE SOME PROGRESS, WE STILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO IN EUROPE

Many of the world’s greatest innovations have emerged from the defence industry. Radar was born in the UK in 1935, while the Internet, computer chips and GPS were developed in the US for military use in the 1960s and 70s. All of these were later put to service for civilian use. In more recent decades, much of this innovation has taken place in the United States, and not without reason.

EU and its Member States are spending €14.4 billion annually on military research and development (R&D) compared to €130 billion in the US, ten times more. Worse still, this limited amount is spent in a fragmented way, with each Member State setting its own priorities and carrying out a rather solitary kind of work. This fragmentation is further mirrored in the way Europeans buy military equipment: only 18% of defence equipment is procured in cooperation, the rest on a national basis.  The consequence is a European defence industry that is too small, too fragmented, and lacking innovation.

To address this issue, we have started pooling European expertise in common R&D projects. With the European Defence Fund (EDF), which has a budget of €8 billion over the 7–year period of the Multiannual Financial Framework, we are incentivising pan-European cooperation, bringing together industry, SMEs, research organisations, the European Defence Agency and our Armed Forces. These projects include, for example, ARTURO, a state-of-the-art radar project coordinated by the Leonardo S.p.A. from Italy or ECOBALLIFE, led by the Spanish company Tecnalia, to develop durable, yet lightweight protective materials for soldiers and vehicles.

We have also taken steps to help innovative European start-ups and SMEs enter the very competitive defence market. The Hub for EU Defence Innovation (HEDI) in the European Defence Agency helps our Armed Forces identify gaps and specify innovation needs. In parallel, the European Commission has set up the EU Defence Innovation Scheme to support innovative smaller players meet those needs. This year, this scheme awarded €225 million to about 400 companies.

But of course, much more remains to be done. We need to provide EU defence companies with access to European innovation funds and encourage collaboration with research institutes and universities. We must also strengthen cooperation among European defence companies themselves, not only in R&D but also in the next steps of the process, starting with joint production. To encourage this, we will need stronger financial incentive on EU level. And we should be careful not to overuse a treaty provision (Art. 346) that allows Member States to bypass EU rules on procurement if they believe it threatens national security.

TECHNOLOGICAL SOVEREIGNTY IN DEFENCE IS A MUST

While many great innovations have emerged from the defence sector, we are increasingly witnessing the reversal of this logic: technologies used in military equipment are often initially developed for commercial use. Take, for example, the most advanced computer chips: their development costs billions. Such vast investments are often only feasible because of their initial commercial applications—from computer games to artificial intelligence.

Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine has provided a clear illustration of this trend. It began with a large-scale cyber-attack. It was Microsoft – a commercial entity – that was able to, and stepped in, to safeguard Ukraine’s digital infrastructure. When Russia targeted Ukraine’s internet infrastructure, it was Starlink, another commercial operator, which kept the Ukrainian armed forces connected. And as the battle increasingly turned to drone warfare, commercial drones provided the blueprint for the drones the Ukrainian army is currently using to target tanks.

The war against Ukraine has provided a window into the future of warfare: ground robots will do everything, from reconnaissance to direct attacks. Russia has already deployed unmanned vehicles that can launch antitank missiles, grenades and drones. Ukraine has used robots for casualty evacuation and explosive disposal.

Aerial drones have already been successfully complementing tanks. Maritime drones have neutralised much of Russia’s on-paper advantage at sea, reopening the Black Sea. Drones have also made warfare much more asymmetrical: a swarm of cheap drones (€500 per unit) can immobilise a battle tank, and even a much costlier F-35 would struggle to fight them.

Artificial Intelligence is already used in autonomous weapons, cyber ​​operations and surveillance. AI models in drones help avoid obstacles and identify potential targets in Ukraine. And AI systems can use data gathered by sensors in robots and drones to map the battlefield and predict points of attack. And there is increasing dependence on space assets: a modern soldier relies a staggering 80% on space services for communication, positioning and operating various weapon systems.

The next milestone in this trend may well be quantum technology. It will have enormous military applications: from decrypting secure communications to enabling GPS-independent navigation, thereby overcoming jamming devices. Fortunately, European research institutes are among the global leaders in this technology.

To protect Europe’s technological sovereignty, we must avoid excessive dependencies in all these critical technologies, such as importing from a small number of same suppliers, which are furthermore not strategically aligned. For instance, just one Chinese company (DJI) controls an estimated 70 percent of global commercial drone production.

But this does not mean autarky: we should expand, and leverage better our partnerships with trusted third countries.

And we need to invest more to develop our own advanced technologies. Europe’s absence from the top 15 global tech companies is alarming. This must be addressed by substantially increasing public funding and by unifying Europe’s capital markets and expanding the role of non-banking finance, such as venture capital. In 2023, €62.5 billion of private investment went into US Artificial Intelligence, while Europe (EU and UK) attracted only around €9 billion; China €7.3 billion. We should follow the recommendations of Enrico Letta to build a Savings and Investments Union to direct more of Europe’s private savings – amounting to a staggering €33 trillion – towards European technology development.

DEFENCE CONTRACTORS CAN FOSTER EUROPE’S COMPETITIVENESS

While the EU is lagging on tech giants, it has strong champions in the defence sector. The EU is home to 5 of the 15 largest global defence contractors by market capitalisation, such as Safran from France, Leonardo from Italy or Rheinmetall from Germany. But the European defence industry landscape remains populated mainly by national players operating in relatively small domestic markets. They lack scale for innovation and for winning big contracts. Fragmentation also often leads to a lack of interoperability of equipment.

To change this, we need to better coordinate demand on the military side and provide stronger supply-side support to industry. On the demand side, we have the European Defence Agency, whose already significant role could be expanded to develop more military research projects, encourage companies to collaborate, and improve coordination in the procurement of equipment for European armies. To address the supply side, I have proposed, together with the Commission, the first-ever European Defence Industrial Strategy. We can improve Europe’s competitiveness through defence industrial policy exploiting synergies with other sectors for technologies with dual use potential.

However, to do that effectively and rapidly, we need to mobilise much more funding at EU level. The Draghi report points to very substantial funding needs. What remains open is the way to meet them. We cannot wait until the 2028-2034 Multi-Year Financial Framework. It would be detrimental to the EU’s own interests.

Instead, we should immediately strengthen the European Investment Bank’s role in financing defence initiatives. And we should consider issuing joint debt to fund the expansion of the European defence industry, as we did during the Covid-19 pandemic. This would certainly raise a number of delicate political questions, including whether it is fair to use common debt to equip the armies of member states that have so far made little effort to develop their defence capabilities. However, if Russia’s aggressive imperialism was truly seen as an existential threat to the Union, the choice of joint debt would be made quickly.

Resorting to joint debt to finance a major military effort in support of Ukraine, in order to force Putin to the negotiating table, would certainly be in accordance with the treaty. It would also boost Europe’s competitiveness in the crucial industrial defence sectors and ensure we do not fall irreparably behind Russia and others. 

Europe stands at a critical juncture. While we have made progress with initiatives like the European Defence Fund and the Hub for EU Defence Innovation, we need to act more boldly. In a world full of war and unrest, we must think big again; investing heavily in key technologies like AI, drones, and space capabilities, and helping our defence industry unlock its potential.

AN EU ARMY CAN CHALLENGE CHINA AND RUSSIA – HERE IS WHY

LET’S THINK BIG AGAIN FOR EUROPE

 19.09.2024 Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission

HRVP Blog – A few weeks ago, I returned to the Island of Ventotene, in Italy, where in 1941 a visionary manifesto “For a free and united Europe” was published. Many of those visions have become reality, but, in the current tense geopolitical context, much more needs to be done to strengthen our political union and reinforce our common foreign and security policy.  

At the beginning of September, on the Island of Ventotene, in the Gulf of Naples, I participated in the 43rd edition of the seminar on Federalism in Europe and the World. Ventotene is the place, where the famous Manifesto “For a free and united Europe” was written in 1941 by Ernesto Rossi and Altiero Spinelli, who were among the founding fathers of modern Europe.

Before addressing the seminar, I inaugurated a beautiful artwork, a wall painting on the City Council building with the entire text of the Manifesto. I also attended a gathering to relaunch the Action Committee for the United States of Europe created by Jean Monnet in 1955. Opening the seminar, I explored what had been achieved since 1941 in Europe, but also more importantly what remains to be done.

Make war impossible among Europeans

The Ventotene Manifesto was drafted at a time when Fascist armies were marching victoriously across Europe. It was visionary and proposed building a European federation to make war among Europeans impossible. Nine years later, with the Schuman Plan of 1950, work was set in motion to pool together coal and steel, the very ingredients of any war machine. During the following decades, Member States renounced key elements of sovereignty, giving way to a common market, a common currency and the freedom to travel all over Europe without a passport. Those are historic achievements, but the full promise of the Ventotene Manifesto remains unfulfilled.

 We live in the most dangerous geopolitical world since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Maybe even since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when the world came close to a nuclear apocalypse.

 And we are going through a difficult time. War is back along our borders, and we live in the most dangerous geopolitical environment since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Maybe even since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when the world came close to a nuclear apocalypse. In this increasingly hostile world, we cannot continue to just react to events. We have to become proactive, we have to develop a plan. We need to strive more than ever for a strong political union with an effective common foreign and security policy.

We have only just woken up to the hardship of this world

My experience of the last five years has taught me that we Europeans have only just woken up to the hardship of this world. After the failure of the European Defence Community in 1954, defence was not part of Europe’s initial project. However, recently events have forced us to take action in this field. It will be the dominant issue in Europe in the coming years. We have already made some progress in building an EU foreign and security policy, which did not exist back in the 1950s, but we are still quite far from what is needed.

 We need to pool much more EU resources if we want to be able to finance at the same time the green and digital transitions and to develop our defence capacities and boost our defence industry.

 As the Draghi report has shown, we need to pool much more EU resources if we want to be able to finance at the same time the green and digital transitions and to develop our defence capacities and boost our defence industry. Like Alexander Hamilton during the American Revolution, we decided to create EU debt in 2020 to face the COVID-19 pandemic. In the context of the war against Ukraine, this should not remain a one-off action. However, when Alexander Hamilton created common borrowing, he also created US federal taxes to repay this debt. So far, the EU has not done so. Creating debt is easier than creating taxes!

THE NEED TO GET RID OF THE UNANIMITY RULE

We also need to change our decision making process. The EU is hamstrung by the unanimity rule for taxation, foreign policy and defence. One Member State is currently preventing the EU to give 6 billion euros in military support to Ukraine, a country that is facing heavy bombings every day. This is not acceptable if we want to build a political community able to defend our citizen and our values and interests. With 27 countries, the unanimity rule is already a heavy burden. After a new enlargement, with 37 countries, it would become unsustainable.

We need an alternative. The current Treaty allows to go over to Qualified Majority Voting for these policies. But only if we agree on that through a unanimous decision, which is very unlikely. In the end, even if this process is always difficult and risky, we will probably need to reform the Treaties. We could explore for instance the use of a supermajority rule of four-fifths.

THINKING BIG AGAIN ABOUT EUROPE

In short, while we have made progress, we still have a long way to go to realise the vision set by the Ventotene manifesto. To face the challenges of our time – from geopolitical tensions to the urgent need for green and digital transitions – we should not shy away from thinking big again, just like Ernesto Rossi and Altiero Spinelli did in the dark times of 1941.

EUROPEAN DEFENCE INDUSTRY: TIME FOR A LEAP FORWARD

 20.03.2024 Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the European Commission

Several outlets – Op-ed by Josep Borrell Fontelles, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission and Thierry Breton, Commissioner for Internal Market in charge of European Defence Industry

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine puts EU’s security at risk. With war on our doorstep, the United States profoundly divided over its continued support to Ukraine, and dangerous tensions increasing in the Middle East and many other regions, it is time for Europe to take its security into its own hands to protect its citizens and deter its adversaries.

We have already begun to reverse the “peace dividend” policy – the approach of reducing defence spending and the related industrial production – that has long prevailed after the end of the Cold War. Since 2022, this change of mind-set has been materialised with the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, the entry of Denmark into European defence cooperation, and EU Member States’ decisions to invest massively in defence and support Ukraine militarily with €28 billion since the start of the war and a further €21 billion announced for 2024. The EU is using instruments like the European Peace Facility in an innovative way to finance the transfer of arms to Ukraine and we have just agreed to add €5 billion to this Facility. We have also mobilised the EU budget in unprecedented ways to support joint procurement and investment in ammunition production.

But we need to do much more, moving from an emergency mode to a structural, long-term approach. We must produce and invest more in defence, faster and together as Europeans. Building a credible Defence Union will be a major European project for the next decade.

We are not talking about creating a European army. What we need – and what we want to achieve in coming years – is a closer cooperation between our national armies and a stronger defence industry in Europe. It will help also build an effective European pillar in NATO. We must build a Europe of defence that

allows us to act together with our allies when possible, but also independently when necessary.

In the current geopolitical context, we have no other choice: we need to become “defence ready”. Not because the EU should wage war but, on the contrary, to deter our potential aggressors with the certainty that our industry will be ready to sustain efforts in the long run. That is the sense of the European Defence industrial Strategy we presented on 5 March and which will be discussed by EU heads of State and government later this week.

BECOMING “DEFENCE READY”

The availability – on time and in volume – of defence equipment has become a critical security issue. Over the last two years, 78% of defence equipment acquired by EU Member States was sourced outside of the EU. As in so many other areas (raw materials, clean tech), in a world of increasing geopolitical tensions we must reduce Europe’s excessive dependencies. We should not take for granted that defence producers abroad will always be eager to sell us equipment at the time, price and pace we need.

We need to increase Europe’s industrial production capacities, replenish our Member States’ stocks, structure European resilient defence industrial ecosystems and secure their supply chains everywhere in Europe.

We already did it for ammunition: the European production system can today produce more than a million artillery ammunitions per year and with the support of the new Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), we will reach a production capacity of 2 million in 2025.

However, we must also cover the broader defence capability landscape. We need to invest into European cyber and anti-aircraft defence capabilities, to monitor threats from space, better protect our maritime areas – the domains that none of our Member States can manage to secure on its own. But all of this presupposes the availability of European defence equipment.

URGENCY AND FOCUS.

Europe needs a defence industry policy underpinning its security strategy for now and the future – without having to hold our breath every four years awaiting the results of elections among our allies. With urgency and focus. Beyond slogans and short-term actions, we need to substantially increase our collective investment for the long term. Without taboos.

Therefore, we need to improve our European defence industry’s access to finance from private and public sources. The European Investment Bank (EIB) can be a key driver in this regard, if it adapts its lending policies accordingly.

Secondly, we need a comprehensive collective investment plan. We were able to react quickly and decisively as Europeans to the existential COVID crisis by jointly mobilising €750 billion for Europe’s recovery and resilience. At a time when our very security is at threat, we need a long-term, predictable and credible financing plan for investing in our defence capabilities and our defence industry – including, if necessary, common borrowing as proposed by several heads of State and government.

One thing is for sure. As with all other major challenges – climate change, pandemics, migration, energy… – relying on national solutions alone cannot be sufficient. It is time to think, invest and act as Europeans. We are confident that the EU Member States will show the political will and agree to provide the necessary resources to make the bold leap forward needed to take control of our own destiny in defence industry matters.

WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF EU DEFENSE

SUMMIT OF AMBITION: HOW EUROPEAN AND GULF STATES CAN BUILD A NEWLY STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP

FROM TRADE, TO UKRAINE, TO MIDDLE EAST CONFLICTS, THE EU AND THE GCC SHOULD FINALLY GRIP THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCING THEIR RELATIONS AT THIS MONTH’S MAJOR SUMMIT.

October 4, 2024

The first-ever summit between the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council takes place on 16 October in Brussels. In recent years, GCC countries have become ever-more important geopolitical actors in the Middle East and North Africa. From Europeans’ point of view in particular, this summit is a chance to lay the foundations for greater strategic interdependence with Gulf actors. The gathering could provide the political impulse long needed to inject energy into this relationship.

EU-Gulf relations have, of late, become increasingly active. Two years ago, the EU and its member states dusted off plans for technical and policy cooperation, which resulted in the bloc’s first-ever Gulf strategy. Europeans since worked to operationalise it, although with mixed results. In 2023, the UAE hosted COP28, which was a catalyst for advancing energy and climate conversations between European and Gulf states.

There are common ambitions, too, on the shared connectivity agenda, as seen at last year’s G20 meeting in New Delhi which endorsed the India-Middle East-Europe Economic corridor (IMEC). This agreement met GCC ambitions to serve as a hub between Asia, Africa, and Europe and European ambitions to diversify from Chinese trade overdependence.

This month’s high-level EU-GCC summit has a packed agenda, whose key items include: trade; a bid to find common language on major geopolitical questions, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine; and preventing the implosion of conflict fronts in the Middle East, including in Israel-Palestine, the Red Sea, Lebanon, and Iran.

TRADE

All sides have high expectations for boosting sectoral cooperation, which European policymakers view as the key platform to advance strategic interdependence on the ground. Here, trade liberalisation might be the most prized and yet complex geoeconomic dossier. Last year, the EU started looking at ways to reboot EU-GCC negotiations for a free trade agreement – which began in 1989 and were frozen in 2008 – only to find that little has changed. Key voices on the GCC side still reject the inclusion of legally binding human rights clauses, environmental standards, and specific language on public procurement, which are fundamental to all EU free trade agreements.

Despite this, a bloc-to-bloc agreement remains a fixation for Brussels, but also for Riyadh, whose rivalry with Abu Dhabi is driving it to do all it can to prevent the EU and the UAE signing a bilateral comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA). This month’s summit is the opportunity for both sides to finally agree what approach they will take on trade.

Indeed, an approach that goes beyond the narrow mechanics of an EU-GCC deal could prove fruitful, such as by adding a bilateral layer. But the EU should not follow an Emirati format (like CEPA) in the pursuit of these bilateral negotiations. One ultimate outcome that this summit could set in train might be a more generic trade liberalisation agreement at the EU-GCC level, but which is then complemented by more specific sectoral bilateral agreements via the EU’s own strategic partnership agreements. Indeed, recent encouraging results from the technical talks for the EU-UAE CEPA could incentivise attempts to try for a different format. This would help all parties avoid the traps of mounting Saudi-UAE geoeconomic competition.

GEOPOLITICS

On the geopolitical front, much is on the table. GCC capitals want to understand if the dialogue they had with Josep Borrell as EU high representative can continue with his successor, Kaja Kallas. Gulf policymakers suspect she might be less interested in their region than Borrell was and too hawkish on Russia and China, with which Gulf players want working relations. They also seek clarity on the overlap or hierarchy with the new commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Suica.

On Russia, while Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have made significant mediation efforts between the warring parties – such as on the release of Ukrainian children detained in Russia and the exchange of prisoners of war – there is no common analysis between the Europeans and the Gulf states on the conflict’s genesis and resolution. In 2023, Saudi Arabia hosted an important meeting between national security advisers of the West and the global south (without China, which declined to attend).

Saudi Arabia was then slated to host a second iteration of Ukraine’s Global Peace Summit. That is no longer happening, however, amid Saudi insistence that some Russian presence be allowed. Some Gulf states have been very receptive to Russia’s narratives and upgraded their relations accordingly – be it to coordinate oil policy, explore opportunities for sanctions proofing, or leverage Russian vulnerabilities to court Moscow’s geopolitical support in the Middle East or Africa.

At the summit, Europeans will want to tackle the question of Gulf states’ ties with Russia.

At the EU-GCC summit, Europeans will want to tackle the question of Gulf states’ ties with Russia. They can do so by conveying three messages. Firstly, that European support for Ukraine will remain strong even if a new US administration turns its back on Kyiv. Secondly, that, despite tactical coordination, Russia is fundamentally a competitor with Gulf states in a tightening energy market and is bound to attack GCC market shares in Asia, as shown by its constant cheating on OPEC+ production quotas. Thirdly, that Russia is a wholly unreliable geopolitical partner, as its ever-closer military partnership with Iran demonstrates. Through this partnership, Russian hypersonic missiles have shown up in the arsenals of the Houthis, who are still technically at war with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

MIDDLE EAST

But to come out of the summit with enhanced strategic interdependence between the EU and the GCC, Europeans will also need to do less lecturing and more listening, specifically on issues pertaining to the Middle East. While there is broad EU-GCC alignment on condemning both Hamas’s brutal attack on 7 October and Israel’s all-out aggression in Gaza, breaching of international humanitarian law, and escalation towards both Iran and Lebanon, Europeans should much more openly and proactively support attempts by countries in the Gulf to contain the explosion of a regional conflict.

Europeans should focus on a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon and a two-state solution as the only meaningful political way out, and leverage international law to marginalise the radical and extremist elements in the Israeli government, creating space for an alternative leadership. Finally, Europeans should actively encourage GCC-Iranian diplomatic channels, recognising their value to manage conflict, including on the emerging Israel-Lebanon front.

This month’s summit could open up new possibilities for both sides (including on energy and climate, which also features on the agenda). Emerging middle powers in the Gulf are already influencing the new multipolar world order, and it makes sense for Europeans to seize such opportunities in pursuit of strategic interdependence with these players. To achieve this, all sides will need to show the political will necessary to unlock these opportunities.

EU EYES MORE ‘STRATEGIC COOPERATION’ WITH GULF COUNTRIES

As the first-ever summit between the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will take place next week, Europeans are eyeing closer ties on regional security and economic issues.

EU leaders are expected to meet with their six Gulf counterparts – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – in Brussels next Wednesday (16 October) in a first high-level summit.

The GCC, headquartered in Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh, is a regional body that seeks political and economic cooperation between the six Gulf states.

“[One of the priorities in terms of outcome] is a political message that we want to make our relationship between EU and GCC more strategic,” European Council President Charles Michel told Euractiv.

DECLARATION LANGUAGE

A key matter to watch will be how both sides manage to solve the balancing act of the joint summit declaration, whose text has been sent back and forth between both sides in the past weeks.

Several EU diplomats pointed out to Euractiv that as the declaration is meant to cover a broad range of sectorial cooperation issues, they expect a “Christmas-tree approach”, meaning no strong line is likely to be taken.

The joint statement should reflect the ambition of the two regions but, at the same time, temper expectations regarding far-reaching cooperation on free trade agreements and visa liberalisation.

“Trade will be the most prominent theme, add to that focus on energy and climate, connectivity, humanitarian aid, security dialogue, and people-to-people contacts and human rights – basically, something there for everyone,” one EU diplomat said.

“A number of member states have asked for stronger texts on Ukraine and the denouncement of Russia and on sanctions evasion, some push for stronger text on gender and human rights,” a second EU diplomat said.

GEOPOLITICS RULES

EU member states, long used to viewing cooperation with the Gulf states through a US prism, have struggled to recalibrate their relationships with the region.

Over the past year, and especially since the Israel-Hamas war broke out, the EU has increasingly looked towards strengthening ties with regional actors.

Most recently, a new international coalition to seek a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict has gained traction, which emerged out of EU-co-hosted talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.

EU leaders are likely to test how far such cooperation could go, some diplomats say, as there is broad alignment on condemning both Hamas’ 7 October attacks and Israel’s war on Gaza, as well as the need to de-escalate tensions in the region amid the situation in Lebanon.

“On the geopolitical topics – the Middle East, Russia’s war against Ukraine, other wars and conflicts like in Africa and Sudan – we want to engage with [the GCC] and encourage them to play a stronger role in defending our rules-based order [and further support for the UN charter],” Michel told Euractiv.

But the latter could be a tough sell, EU diplomats say, as the bloc desperately tries to distance itself from accusations of double standards in its response to Ukraine and Gaza.

“It’s not likely we’ll be able to achieve much at this summit, not with Ukraine and the wider Middle East on fire simultaneously,” a third EU diplomat said.

“And it is not enough to repeat that Russia is an unreliable geopolitical partner because of its evident ties to Iran,” they said, in reference to the region’s increasingly uneasy ties with Russia.

The Moscow-Tehran axis has raised concerns across the Gulf over arms supplied by Russia to pro-Iranian Houthi rebels, which remain at war with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE

The European Commission believes bilateral deals with individual countries in the region are now more feasible, according to people familiar with the matter. Efforts for a region-to-region deal have so far fallen flat since they began in 1990.

Frustrated by the lack of progress on a region-to-region deal, the UAE has lobbied Brussels to start talks on a trade pact separate from the GCC talks, Reuters reported in March.

At the same time, Europeans are concerned that negotiations for bilateral trade deals risk alienating other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, who would prefer a region-to-region agreement.

Starting such bilateral talks would require a new mandate from EU member states, which, according to EU diplomats, could take several months.

At the same time, the UAE keeps close ties to Russia, which has prompted Western countries to push Abu Dhabi to crack down on companies evading Western sanctions on Moscow through its territory.

However, legally binding human rights clauses, environmental standards, and specific language on public procurement are likely to remain long-standing sticking points should those talks move on.

WILL THERE EVER BE A UNITED EUROPE?

FRUGAL NO MORE: NEW NATO CHIEF MARK RUTTE URGES MEMBERS INCREASE DEFENCE SPENDING

“To truly match the capabilities with the needs, we need significantly more defence spending,” says Rutte in his inauguration speech to NATO members.

The former Dutch Prime minister, who proudly called himself a frugal, insisted countries must spend more in his first remarks as NATO head on Tuesday (1 October), putting defence expenditure high on the list of priorities.

With a big smile on his face, and full of energy, Mark Rutte took charge of the highest job of the world’s largest and most powerful military alliance on Tuesday – even though he has to leave his home town the Hague, and is no longer allowed to cycle to work.

In NATO’s Brussels headquarters, which found a new breath of life for its existence, when Russia attacked Ukraine more than two years ago, he will have the immense responsibility of making sure its members are ready for war if need be.

When laying down his priorities, he also mentioned supporting Ukraine and working with the European Union – which is stepping up its defence role in supporting joint procurement and defence production.

He also promised more cooperation with countries in the Pacific, meaning keeping an eye on China, working with Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, and the southern countries grappling with terrorism and the influence of Beijing and Moscow.

SPEND MORE

The Dutchman – despite his reputation as a frugal spender – insisted several times in his first remarks to the 32 ambassadors to NATO, that alliance members should increase defence spending, regardless of who occupies the White House after the November US elections.

“To keep NATO strong and ensure our defence remains effective and credible against all threats, we need more forces, better capabilities faster innovation; this requires more investment,” said Rutte.

“To truly match the capabilities with the needs, we need significantly more defence spending – we will make sure to invest enough in the right areas – we must each bear our fair share,” he added when talking to the press.

Currently, 23 members spend more than 2%, of GDP on defence, with record high figures,  compared to ten years ago when there were only three.

During the Cold War, however, NATO countries spent around 3.5% of their GDP on defence-related expenditures. Eastern countries are pressing for a debate to increase the target for minimum spending on defence from 2% to 3% of each country’s GDP.

Rutte did not specify whether he supported this move, or whether, he saw it as necessary.

Not all agree on spending more. As Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Rutte himself refrained from increasing defence spending until after Russia attacked Ukraine, in the winter of 2022.

New budgetary priorities

He will have to battle against countries who believe the 2% measure is not perfect in measuring the share of the burden they carry, with some calling for a new definition of the criteria, or saying the size of their economies does not allow them to spend that much cash on armies.

After spending years calling on his European colleagues to balance their books and reduce debt and deficit, proudly calling himself a frugal, the situation is now different said Rutte.

Balancing the books “is an issue facing many governments but this is what politicians are meant to do,” and this means ensuring “the priorities are financed,” said Rutte, suggesting defence should be a higher priority.

“We have to defend. If someone attacks, we will win. But we have to make sure that this is also the case in the coming years”.

Rutte will also need to take on board his predecessor Jens Stoltenberg’s advice, of not to forget about the risks coming from China, particularly on critical infrastructures, in a letter the Norwegian published on his last day.

‘SMART DEFENSE’ AND ‘INTEROPERABILITY’: THE FUTURE OF DEFENSE POLICY IN EUROPE

In the 25 years following the end of the Cold War, European countries benefited from a peace dividend, by significantly decreasing defense spending. Recently, this trend has started to reverse as EU MEMBER STATES RECONSIDER MILITARY AND DEFENSE BUDGETS IN THE FACE OF UNPRECEDENTED SECURITY CHALLENGES. CONCEPTS LIKE “SMART DEFENSE” AND “INTEROPERABILITY” ARE GAINING RECOGNITION AS THE FUTURE OF DEFENSE POLICY.

The top four countries with the highest military spending are non-EU countries. Only the UK, France, Germany and Italy are on the list of the top 15 highest military spenders in 2015.

IN RECENT YEARS, AN INCREASING NUMBER OF REFUGEES, A GROWING NETWORK OF TERRORIST ORGANISATIONS, THE DEPLOYMENT OF ADVANCED OFFENSIVE TACTICAL BALLISTIC MISSILES BY MAJOR EUROPEAN POWERS, AND THE INVASION OF UKRAINE HAVE ALL POSED CHALLENGES TO THE EU’S CAPACITY TO DEAL WITH SECURITY THREATS.

At the same time, non-state actors such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and ISIS have demonstrated their ability to acquire and use ballistic missiles. MEMBER STATES ARE THEREFORE RETHINKING THEIR MILITARY SPENDING STRATEGY.

In 2014, NATO allies pledged to reach spending 2% of GDP on defense by 2024. In Europe, member states including the UK and Poland increased defense expenditures between 2014 and 2015 by 9% and 29% respectively. Most countries focus spending on personnel with only limited expenditure on defense equipment procurement and R&D.

COOPERATION AMONG EU MEMBER STATES IS KEY TO ACHIEVING AN EFFICIENT DEFENSE THAT COUNTERS CURRENT SECURITY THREATS. FRAGMENTATION ACROSS NATIONAL BORDERS, PROTECTIONIST NATIONAL POLICIES AND BUDGETARY CONSTRAINTS CAN LEAD TO INEFFICIENCY AND UNNECESSARY DUPLICATION OF RESOURCES.

Revelation 17:11-13

11 And THE BEAST THAT WAS, AND IS NOT, EVEN HE IS THE EIGHTH, AND IS OF THE SEVEN, AND GOETH INTO PERDITION.

12 And THE TEN HORNS WHICH THOU SAWEST ARE TEN KINGS, which have received no kingdom as yet; but RECEIVE POWER AS KINGS ONE HOUR WITH THE BEAST.

13 THESE HAVE ONE MIND, AND SHALL GIVE THEIR POWER AND STRENGTH UNTO THE BEAST.

With continued security challenges, European countries should invest in proven systems — like Patriot and SM-3— that have been developed, tested and deployed to defeat existing and emerging threats. There isn’t enough time or financial resources to invest in the development of completely new, unproven systems that may take 10 to 15 years to become operational. European countries should prioritise interoperability, choosing systems that plug into existing networks for ease of shared intelligence and decision-making.

European countries must spend wisely, investing in companies with not only decades of experience with the most advanced technologies but a proven commitment to creating meaningful partnership opportunities.

“Defence is a member state competence. The point is not about having an EU army but rather to work better together among the 27 armies,” Josep Borrell, the EU’s top foreign policy diplomat told Politico on 6 March 2024. This begs the question – is this the end of the discussion on the establishment of an EU Army? Maybe not, as history shows that nothing is ever certain. This article describes the current security situation in Europe in light of Borrell’s statement and seeks to answer the question regarding the future of an EU army.

Taking the current European security situation into consideration, and the debate surrounding member countries’ NATO contributions, it might be useful to be more specific regarding the issue of NATO funding.

At the outset, it is important to recall that NATO is resourced through the direct and indirect contributions of its members. At the same time, NATO’s common funds are composed of direct contributions to collective budgets and programmes, which equate to only 0.3% of total allied defence spending (around EUR 3.3 billion for 2023). These funds allow NATO to deliver capabilities, run the organisation, and its military commands.

The entire debate is related to the issue of national or indirect contributions, which make up the largest component of NATO funding and are borne by the individual member countries. These include the forces and capabilities held by each member country, which can be provided to NATO for deterrence, defence activities and military operations. When nations such as Denmark claim to have reached the 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) level of spending on defence because funding for Ukraine is added, Copenhagen is actually ‘playing with the numbers’ and as such is providing false security to the NATO community. While Denmark may not be adhering to the purpose of the Defence Planning Review Questionnaire (DPQ), it could be argued that such an approach is a violation of Article 3 (“the Parties, separately and jointly, by means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid, will maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack.”) in the NATO Treaty since this article is a prerequisite for Article 5 on collective defence.

In the Wales Summit Declaration from September 2014, it was stated that NATO members will aim to move towards the existing NATO guideline of spending 2% of GDP on defence within a decade, with a view to fulfilling NATO’s capability priorities. We should recall that this came just half a year after Russia annexed Crimea.

AN EU DEFENCE UNION

Turning to the EU, the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) is an integral part of the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). The CSDP provides the main policy framework through which EU Member States can develop a European strategic culture of security and defence, address conflicts and crises together, protect the Union and its citizens, and strengthen international peace and security. As a result of the tense geopolitical context, the CSDP has been one of the fastest-developing EU policy instruments over the last 10 years. Since 24 February 2022, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has acted as a geopolitical reset for Europe and created further impetus for what should become an EU Defence Union. However, German Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Hannah Neumann has stated: “It doesn’t make sense to call for a European army at a time where you can’t even produce enough ammunition to defend yourself or support your closest partners.” This point of view explains that ‘bold speeches’ alone are not doing the work.

A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE EUROPEAN ARMY IDEA

The idea of a European Army was first discussed in 1950 having been proposed by France. The intention was to include the ‘Inner Six’ countries (Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, and West Germany) in order to strengthen defence against the Soviet threat without directly rearming West Germany in the wake of World War II. In 1952, the Treaty establishing the European Defence Community, also known as the Treaty of Paris, was signed, but not ratified by the signatories. France was one of two nations (along with Italy) that signed but failed to ratify the treaty.

Later, in 1966, with the souring of relations between Washington and Paris due to the French refusal to integrate France’s nuclear deterrent with other NATO countries, or accept any collective form of control over its armed forces, President de Gaulle downgraded France’s membership in NATO. France decided to withdraw from the NATO Military Command Structure to pursue more independent defence options. However, it was also stated that France would remain in the Alliance even after the end of the 20-year commitment period in 1969, unless the “fundamental elements of the relations between East and West” changed.

In 2009, France rejoined the NATO Military Command Structure because of the shift in common strategic interests towards sensitive crisis areas as mentioned in a French White Paper from 2008.

WESTERN EUROPEAN UNION

For a broader understanding, it is worth recalling another post-World War 2 military alliance, namely the Western European Union (WEU). The Treaty of Brussels in 1948, also referred to as the Brussels Pact, was the founding treaty of the Western Union (WU) between 1948 and 1954, when it was amended as the Modified Brussels Treaty (MTB) and served as the founding treaty of the WEU until its termination in 2010. The treaty provided for the organisation of military, economic, social, and cultural cooperation among its member states, as well as a mutual defence clause. The WEU was structured around nine subsidiary bodies, one of which was the Western European Armaments Group (WEAG), established to promote cooperation in research and development. The work in WEAG was taken over by the European Defence Agency (EDA) in 2005.

This shows that there have been many initiatives, and some viable others, which were neglected for various reasons. Examples of those deemed more viable include the following.

EUROCORPS

Eurocorps was founded by France and Germany in 1992 with its headquarters in Strasbourg. It is composed of personnel from six framework and five associated nations; the framework nations place Eurocorps at the service of the EU and NATO.

Eurocorps dates back to 1989, when German Chancellor Helmut Kohl and French President François Mitterrand, initiated military cooperation by establishing the Franco-German Defence and Security Council and the founding of a joint brigade. Eurocorps was formally established with the Treaty of Strasbourg, an agreement signed in Brussels on 22 November 2004 by the defence ministers of the five member countries at that time (Germany, France, Belgium, Spain, and Luxembourg) and ratified by their respective national parliaments.

Article 3 of the Treaty of Strasbourg outlines the various missions entrusted to Eurocorps; it may be involved in UN missions, WEU missions, and also in NATO missions, participating in evacuation missions, humanitarian efforts, peacekeeping, and crisis management operations.

THE EU BATTLE GROUP

Currently, Eurocorps is preparing for the future role as Force Headquarters for the EU Battle Group. This was decided during the German EU presidency in the second half of 2020, under the EU CSDP, to develop a Strategic Compass for Security and Defence that will be placed on standby in 2025. The Corps can comprise as many as 60,000 personnel.

This EU force was never foreseen as competing with NATO, but was deemed important enough to reduce operational dependency on the US to allow EU military formations to function more autonomously. Problems remain however, when it comes to assembling enough troops, and for the time being only one EU Battlegroup is available and on standby. This is the German-led EU Battlegroup in 2024/2025.

THE WEIMAR TRIANGLE

Another alliance is surfacing – or resurfacing – in light of the current volatile security situation on the European continent. This is the so-called Weimar Triangle, a regional alliance comprising France, Germany, and Poland, originally created in 1991 in the German city of Weimar. The grouping was founded in order to promote co-operation between the three countries in cross-border and European issues.

The Weimar Triangle exists primarily in the form of summit meetings between the leaders of the three countries, and also of their foreign ministers. The collaboration between its member states includes inter-parliamentary contacts, military, scientific, and cultural co-operation. A summit of the three ministers of foreign affairs took place in La Celle-Saint-Cloud on 12 February 2024 when the ministers reaffirmed their determination to provide new energy to their trilateral cooperation. In short, they stated that extraordinary times require extraordinary measures. Against this background, it is their goal to make the EU more united, stronger, and able to respond to today’s security challenges, on a path towards a security and defence union, living up to European citizens’ expectations. The triangle is also committed to a strong and united NATO.

On 15 March 2024, a new summit of the Weimar Triangle was held in Berlin with President Macron, Chancellor Scholz and Prime Minister Tusk in attendance. The leaders again stressed that they remained united over their position on Europe’s response to Russia’s war against Ukraine. It is worth remarking that their statements expressed the intention for a stronger and united EU, and a strong and united NATO at the same time. The question is whether Europe can have both, or do the Europeans have to choose between either the EU or NATO for their common security?

WHY AN EU ARMY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY

EU or NATO for European common security?

Just by looking at the aforementioned initiatives, it is clear that the question regarding European security and defence is a challenge due to different considerations and hidden agendas. Therefore, defence issues remain exclusively a matter for Member States as Borell stated in March.

EU leaders realise that no single EU country can tackle the current security threats alone. For example, President Macron called for a joint European military project in 2017, while former Chancellor Merkel said “we ought to work on the vision of one day establishing a proper European Army” in her address to the European Parliament in November 2018. Moving towards a security and defence union has until recently been one of the PRIORITIES OF PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION VON DER LEYEN.

A common EU defence policy is provided for by the Treaty of Lisbon (Article 42(2) TEU). However, the treaty also clearly states the importance of national defence policy, including NATO membership or neutrality. THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT HAS CONSISTENTLY SUPPORTED MORE COOPERATION, INCREASED INVESTMENT, AND THE POOLING OF RESOURCES TO CREATE SYNERGIES AT THE EU LEVEL TO BETTER PROTECT EUROPEANS.

EU INITIATIVES CONCERNING DEFENCE

In recent years, THE EU HAS BEGUN TO IMPLEMENT AMBITIOUS INITIATIVES TO PROVIDE MORE RESOURCES, STIMULATE EFFICIENCY, FACILITATE COOPERATION, AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CAPABILITIES.

The Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) was launched in December 2017 and currently operates on 47 collaborative projects with binding commitments including a European Medical Command, Maritime Surveillance System, mutual assistance for cybersecurity and rapid response teams, and a joint EU intelligence school.

THE EUROPEAN DEFENCE FUND (EDF) WAS LAUNCHED IN JUNE 2017 AND WAS THE FIRST TO USE THE EU BUDGET TO CO-FUND DEFENCE COOPERATION. ON 29 APRIL 2021, MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AGREED TO FUND THE EDF WITH A BUDGET OF EUR 7.9 BILLION AS PART OF THE EU’S LONG-TERM BUDGET (2021–2027).

The EU has also strengthened cooperation with NATO on projects across seven areas including cybersecurity, joint exercises, and counterterrorism.

THE EU STRENGTHENS ITS DEFENCE PROCUREMENT STRATEGY

Russia’s war against Ukraine has underlined the need for the EU to strengthen its defence strategy and speed up weapons production. On 13 July 2023, MEPs voted in favour of EUR 500 million in financing to help EU industry ramp up production of ammunition and missiles to increase deliveries to Ukraine and help EU countries refill their own stocks, the so-called Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP).

On 12 September 2023, MEPs backed the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through the common Procurement Act (EDIRPA) to support EU countries in jointly purchasing defence products such as weapons, ammunition, and medical equipment, to help fill the most urgent and critical gaps. The aim of the act is to boost the European defence industrial and technological base and foster cooperation on defence procurement. Joint purchases will have to involve at least three EU countries. It will also be open to Norway, Liechtenstein, and Iceland.

The remaining question is whether all those programmes will influence other areas of normal EU business. The elections for the European Parliament taking place on 6–9 June 2024 might show just how far it is possible to go in transforming the EU to a more wartime posture.

THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP

Although the transatlantic relationship with the US is still considered fundamentally decisive for European security policy, the Trump years (2016–2020) have left their mark on any policy analysis in this regard. In government circles, as in many other parts of Europe, there is often THE CONCERN THAT TRANSATLANTIC TIES MIGHT NOT BE MAINTAINABLE IN THEIR CURRENT FORM. THE STRATEGIC POINT ON THE NEED FOR EUROPE TO STAND ON ITS OWN REGARDING IT SECURITY AND DEFENCE POLICY IS BECOMING MORE VISIBLE when discussing NATO’s Article 5 commitments and the 2% GDP issue. Article 5 states that the Allies are obliged to mutually assist each other when a NATO member is attacked. The same is mentioned in Article 42.7 of the EU Treaty and in Article 4 of the Aachen Treaty; while the former also obliges all EU countries to provide mutual assistance and assistance, if a Member State is attacked, this mutual commitment was further underlined in the Franco-German bilateral Treaty of Aachen, which entered into force in January 2020.

EUROPE CAN CHALLENGE ISRAEL’S PRESENCE IN PALESTINE

THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE HAS RULED THAT ISRAEL’S CONTINUED OCCUPATION OF PALESTINIAN TERRITORY IS UNLAWFUL. NOW EUROPE MUST SUPPORT FURTHER DIFFERENTIATION MEASURES, AND RECOGNISE PALESTINE’S RIGHT TO SELF-DETERMINATION

Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki speaks to the press following the International Court of Justice (ICJ) presents its advisory rule regarding practices of Israel in Palestinian territory

LAST FRIDAY’S LANDMARK RULING BY THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE (ICJ) AMOUNTS TO A WHOLESALE REJECTION OF ISRAEL’S DECADES-LONG POLICIES in Gaza and the West Bank. THE COURT FOUND THAT ISRAEL’S CONTINUED PRESENCE IN THE ENTIRETY OF THE PALESTINIAN TERRITORY IS UNLAWFUL, AND SHOULD BE BROUGHT TO AN END AS RAPIDLY AS POSSIBLE. In addition, it found that the separate legal regimes applying to Israelis and Palestinians in the Palestinian territory constitute a violation of international laws prohibiting racial discrimination and apartheid under Article 3 of the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination. Now, rather than pursuing the chimera of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, EUROPE SHOULD FOCUS ITS IMMEDIATE EFFORTS ON DIRECTLY CHALLENGING ISRAEL’S UNLAWFUL PRACTICES, AND INCENTIVISING A FUTURE ISRAELI MOVE TOWARDS DE-OCCUPATION.

A NEW, CLEAR PATH

In its ruling the ICJ has stated that Israel is obliged to end its occupation, and allow the Palestinian people to exercise their right to self-determination – including the dismantling of Israel’s settlement regime, and making reparations to Palestinians. In considering how to bring to an end Israel’s unlawful presence in the Palestinian territory, members of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) and Security Council should be guided by principles set out by the ICJ judges – most notably the international duty to ensure that member state actions do not recognize or support illegal Israeli actions. This includes the need to prevent trade or investment relations with Israeli settlements, as highlighted by the court.

THE EUROPEAN UNION AND EUROPEAN STATES CANNOT CONTINUE BUSINESS AS USUAL WITH ISRAEL, AND MUST INSTEAD CHALLENGE THE COUNTRY’S UNLAWFUL PRACTICES. AT THE HEART OF THIS IS ISRAEL’S SETTLEMENT PROJECT, AND REGIME OF INSTITUTIONAL DISCRIMINATION AGAINST PALESTINIANS. EUROPEANS SHOULD NOW WORK WITH UNGA MEMBERS, PARTICULARLY ARAB STATES, TO OPERATIONALISE THE COURT’S RULING WHICH ECHOES LONG-STANDING EUROPEAN POSITIONS, SUCH AS THE EU’S POLICY OF DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE SETTLEMENTS. Enshrined in UN Resolution 2334 in December 2016, the differentiation policy has now been commended by the ICJ.

EXCLUDING SETTLEMENTS, RECOGNISING PALESTINE

While Europeans have already taken some significant steps to differentiate between Israel and its settlements, more are needed. The EU and European states should review all interactions with Israel to ensure the full and effective exclusion of settlement-affiliated entities – and propose UNGA adopts similar measures. This review should include a long-overdue ban on settlements products and services – as called for by the ICJ – and closer scrutiny of arms sales and technology to ensure these are not contributing to Israel’s unlawful actions. The EU must also urgently assess whether Israel is complying with its human rights obligations under their Association Agreement, while expanding sanctions against settlement organizations. In addition, and perhaps most importantly, European countries must take to heart the court’s assertion that the Palestinian right to self-determination is not conditional upon Israeli approval, nor upon the outcome of negotiations. A practical step in this regard, already taken by several EU members including most recently Ireland, Norway, and Spain, is TO RECOGNISE THE STATE OF PALESTINIAN IN GAZA AND THE WEST BANK (INCLUDING EAST JERUSALEM), BASED ON THE 1967 BORDERS. OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES MUST NOW FOLLOW SUIT.

NATURAL DISASTERS OR DIVINE JUDGMENT?

WHY GOD CARES SO MUCH ABOUT ATTEMPTS TO TAKE LAND AWAY FROM ISRAEL

Jimmy Evans

And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it.  Zechariah 12:3 

And it shall come to pass in that day, that I will seek to destroy all the nations that come against Jerusalem.  Zechariah 12:9 

1. Over one hundred billion-dollar, record-setting catastrophes and/or events occurred while US presidents George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump were pressuring or calling on Israel to divide their covenant land.
2. The costliest insurance events, the costliest hurricanes, the largest tornado outbreaks, the ” Perfect Storm,” the 9/11 terror events, and Hurricane Katrina corresponded to White House pressure on Israel to divide their land.
3. THE US, THE UN, AND THE EU DO NOT HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO DIVIDE GOD S COVENANT LAND.
4. CALLING THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN TALKS “MIDDLE EAST PEACE TALKS” IS A FALSE NARRATIVE.
5. JEWS HAVE A THREE-THOUSAND-YEAR HISTORY WITH JERUSALEM, AND CHRISTIANS HAVE A TWO-THOUSAND-YEAR HISTORY.
6. THE BIBLICAL HEARTLAND OF ISRAEL – JUDEA, SAMARIA, AND EAST JERUSALEM – IS NOT TO BE PART OF AN ARAB STATE.
7. THE BIBLE DECLARES THAT JERUSALEM WILL BECOME A BURDENSOME STONE, AND EFFORTS TO DIVIDE THE CITY AND LAND WILL LEAD TO ARMAGEDDON, the final battle for Jerusalem.
8. THE GOD OF ISRAEL WILL CONTINUE TO REBUKE THOSE LEADERS AND THEIR NATIONS ATTEMPTING TO DIVIDE HIS LAND!

EXPERT: HURRICANES CONSEQUENCE OF BIDEN PRESSURE ON ISRAEL FOR TWO-STATE SOLUTION

As the southeastern United States copes with the aftermath of several deadly hurricanes, all eyes turn to the heavens to try to understand  God’s message contained in these hardships.

As a Bible student and politics student, William Koenig, publisher of Koenig International News, has a unique perspective for understanding current events. He places the storms in the context of the Biden administration and its treatment of Israel, more specifically,  the administration putting major pressure on Israel to agree to a cease-fire with Hezbollah and in Gaza and attempting to stop a significant response to Iran’s recent missile attack on Israel.

“The tropical depression that became Helene developed quickly on Monday morning, September 23, 2024,” Koenig wrote. “ The first advisory was put out that day at 11:00 am EDT. The storm began as Israel’s enemies were preparing their scathing anti-Israel speeches to the United Nations General Assembly while the Biden administration was continuing to work on an Israeli-Hamas ceasefire deal and was exerting pressure on Israel to comply. Additionally, Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron pushed a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah in an attempt to stop the war in Lebanon. Moreover, there was still pressure on Israel for two-state negotiations.”

Koenig noted that Hurricane Ian, the third costliest hurricane in U.S. history, developed and came ashore in southern Florida during the September 2022 UN General Assembly meetings. He also cited the four costliest hurricanes in U.S. history as all corresponding to White House pressure and action regarding Israel’s covenant land.  

Moreover, monster storms Hurricane Katrina (2005), Hurricane Harvey (2017), Hurricane Ian (2022) and Hurricane Helene (2024) all formed quickly and produced devastating disasters within a week or so. This too is extremely unusual, when most storms build over time off the west coast of Africa or deep in the Caribbean. 

He explained the connection. 

“When the presidents and their administrations have attempted to create an Arab state in the biblical heartland of Israel, Judea, Samaria, and East Jerusalem, there are major consequences,” Koenig wrote. “And I have shown for years, the greater the pressure on Israel to divide their covenant land by agreeing to a two-state plan, forcing Jews from their home as in August 2005, and restricting Israel’s ability to defend themselves, the greater the corresponding catastrophes. You can sense the God of Israel’s fury and wrath over this. It is a mystery but has fit a pattern for over 30 years.”

“I continue to be very sensitive to the many people and families who have been dramatically affected by these record-setting events. I have listened to many devastating stories. We need to continue praying for them, their families, and for all those dealing with the resulting financial and personal hardships.”

Indeed, the pattern outlined by Koenig has a long history predating the modern State of Israel. Koenig discusses these matters in his book “Eye to Eye – Facing the Consequences of Dividing Israel.”  

HISTORY OF NATURAL DISASTERS

August 2021:  President Biden hosted then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett at the White House, pressuring him into accepting a plan that put a total freeze on Jewish construction in Judea, Samaria, and the sections of Jerusalem that were illegally occupied by Jordan before 1967. As Bennett flew home, Hurricane Ida, a category four hurricane made landfall precisely on the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

January 2020: . After he took office in January 2020, Biden immediately began implementing an anti-Israel policy which included reestablishing relations with the Palestinian Authority and meeting with Iran to jump-start the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. One month later, a polar vortex came sweeping down from the north, hitting the central US with extreme cold. At least 2,400 cold temperature records were broken or tied, some of them going back 75 years or more. 

August 2017: The Trump Administration’s Middle East negotiating team, led by Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, visited the region in an attempt to jump-start peace talks. Ten days later, Hurricane Harvey, described as the “worst disaster” in Texan history, made landfall, slamming the Corpus Christi region of Texas with 130 MPH winds and 13-foot storm surges.

June 2016:  A summit was held in Paris as a prelude to a multi-national conference that would force Israel to unilaterally accept the two-state solution and create a Palestinian state within its borders. As the delegates left the summit, rain began to fall. Over the next 24 hours, the River Seine rose 20 feet, resulting in the worst flooding Paris has seen in decades.

WILLIAM KOENIG: HURRICANE MARIA WAS A WARNING FROM GOD NOT TO DIVIDE ISRAEL

AS AMERICA HAS DONE TO ISRAEL

THERE IS A DIRECT CORRELATION BETWEEN THE ALARMING NUMBER OF MASSIVE DISASTERS STRIKING AMERICA AND HER LEADERS PRESSURING ISRAEL TO SURRENDER HER LAND FOR “PEACE.”

COSTING HUNDREDS OF LIVES AND CAUSING HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS’ WORTH OF DAMAGE, DOZENS OF DISASTERS HAVE HIT AMERICA—and ALWAYS WITHIN TWENTY-FOUR HOURS OF PUTTING PRESSURE ON ISRAEL. These disasters have included earthquakes, raging fires, hurricanes, floods, tsunamis, and tornadoes.

On his program today, End Times prepper televangelist Jim Bakker interviewed William Koenig of World Watch Daily, who claimed that Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico last year, was a warning from God to the Trump administration not to pursue any Middle East peace deal that requires Israel to give up any land or share Jerusalem.

After repeating his claim that Hurricanes Harvey and Irma were similar warnings from God about dividing Israel, Koenig declared that the devastation wrought by HURRICANE MARIA WAS CAUSED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP MEETING WITH ARAB LEADERS AT THE WHITE HOUSE.

“President Trump was meeting with President Abbas, King Abdullah from Jordan, and the president of Egypt, El-Sisi, that very day that Hurricane Maria came on to Puerto Rico,” he said. “I might add that 48 hours before that, President Trump was meeting with Netanyahu and MARIA WENT FROM A CATEGORY 1 TO A CATEGORY 5 IN THE SAME DAY, WHICH IS UNPRECEDENTED.”

“GOD SAYS, ‘DON’T TOUCH MY ANOINTED, DON’T TOUCH MY COUNTRY, DON’T TOUCH MY LAND, DON’T DIVIDE MY LAND,'” Bakker responded. “God is alive, God is real, God hasn’t changed.”

Later in the program, Koenig said that an earthquake in the Gulf of Alaska in January that resulted in a tsunami warning being issued was due to Vice President Mike Pence pledging to work to achieve a peace deal in the Middle East.

“On the 23rd, he was meeting with the president of Israel,” Koenig said, “and he committed the Trump administration and President Trump to MOVING FORWARD WITH A PEACE PLAN AND WITHIN 25 MINUTES, A 7.9 EARTHQUAKE FELL WITHIN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SENT TSUNAMI WARNINGS UP THE WEST COAST. WITHIN 25 MINUTES OF VICE PRESIDENT PENCE COMMITTING THE UNITED STATES TO A PEACE PLAN IN ISRAEL, A 7.9 EARTHQUAKE HAPPENED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.”

“No matter how friendly this administration is to Israel and how supportive they are to Israel and its security,” he added, “THAT LAND … IS GOD’S COVENANT LAND AND NO EARTHLY LEADER HAS THE RIGHT TO PARTITION, DIVIDE, OR SPLIT THE CITY OF JERUSALEM. AND IF [THEY TRY], THERE ARE CONSEQUENCES.”

Some believe that there are some disasters that appear to be related to God’s promise in Genesis 12:3 to bless those who bless Israel but curse those who slight Israel. The idea being that because the U.S. keeps pressuring Israel to give up the land that God says in the Bible is theirs, negative consequences have occurred here. We all know storms and natural disasters are all part of life but there seems to be in some cases “coincidental” timing at the exact time the U.S. is pressuring Israel. Weather true or not, anyone who believes God is in control, or sovereign, must therefore believe that God either causes or allows ALL things to happen…both good and bad.

ONE DEAD AS STORM KIRK TEARS THROUGH SPAIN, PORTUGAL, FRANCE

Paris (AFP) – The remnants of Hurricane Kirk swept into western Europe Wednesday, tearing up trees in Portugal and Spain before dumping heavy rains on France that left at least one dead.

A storm swell in the Mediterranean off the port city of Sete in southern France overturned three boats, killing one amateur sailor and putting another in the hospital in critical condition, said Herault department authorities.

Some 64,000 people in the south of France were also left without power, network supplier Enedis told AFP, while several departments reported roads cut off by floodwaters.

Following a crisis response meeting in Paris, Energy and Ecological Transition Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher told journalists the government was mobilising “all state services” and urged citizens to be careful.

“These episodes will have a tendency to recur. We’re living at a time when climate change is making itself felt in concrete ways in our daily lives,” she said.

Authorities put the Seine-et-Marne department near Paris on red alert for flooding as the rain swelled the Grand Morin river, a tributary of the Seine, which runs through the French capital.

Another 29 of the country’s departments were placed on orange alert, with heavy rains and high winds expected.

There were 35,000 households that lost electricity in the worst-hit department of Pyrenees-Atlantiques, with a clutch of other departments in the southwest and central east of the country also affected, Enedis said.

Weather forecasters had predicted the storm would dump a month’s worth of rain on a swathe of the country, including Paris.

Portugal power cuts

Portugal’s civil protection authority reported more than 1,300 incidents overnight Tuesday to Wednesday, three-quarters of which involved fallen trees in the north of the country.

Porto, the main northern city, was hit hardest, with 400 trees uprooted. Cars were also damaged and rail services interrupted near Barcelos, also in the north.

The storm also cut power to more than 300,000 households, said the country’s electricity supplier.

Weather and civil protection officials, having predicted winds of up to 120 kilometres per hour (75 mph) and heavy rain, put the coast on a yellow alert, as waves reached up to seven metres (23 feet) high.

Spanish weather officials issued an orange alert for the north and northwest of the country, warning of winds of up to 140 kilometres per hour in the Asturias region.

Galicia, in the northwest, reported some roads blocked by mud slides and fallen trees in urban areas.

https://www.tiktok.com/discover/saudi-arabia-dust-storm-2024

US AND ARAB STATES REPORTEDLY IN TALKS WITH IRAN. JERUSALEM INFORMED OF THE INITIATIVE BUT NOT PART OF IT.

By ToI Staff and Agencies9 October 2024, 3:33 am

THE UNITED STATES AND ARAB STATES HAVE LAUNCHED COVERT TALKS WITH IRAN FOR A COMPREHENSIVE CEASEFIRE AIMED AT CALMING ALL WAR FRONTS AT ONCE, ACCORDING TO AN ISRAELI TELEVISION REPORT TUESDAY.

Channel 12 news reported that ISRAEL IS NOT CURRENTLY INVOLVED IN THE INITIATIVE, BUT THAT SENIOR ISRAELI OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN INFORMED ABOUT IT.

The network noted that it was not clear how the efforts would affect the Gaza Strip, which is more complex than the rest of the fronts due to Israel’s desire to continue fighting even after a potential hostage deal, in order to ensure Hamas can never again constitute a threat, and the terror group’s demand for a full Israeli withdrawal in any deal.

THE REPORT ADDED THAT ISRAEL HAS NOT YET TOLD THE US WHAT ITS STANCE ON THE INITIATIVE IS.

WHO IS THE END TIME ANTICHRIST?

THE BIBLE DESCRIBES THE ANTICHRIST

But the fearful, and UNBELIEVING, and the abominable, and murderers, and whoremongers, and sorcerers, and idolaters, and all liars, shall have their part in THE LAKE WHICH BURNETH WITH FIRE AND BRIMSTONE: WHICH IS THE SECOND DEATH.

SEVEN-FOLD REFERENCE TO LAKE OF FIRE JUDGEMENT:

1. “He that hath an ear, let hear what the Spirit saith unto the churches; He that overcometh shall not be hurt of THE SECOND DEATH (LAKE OF FIRE).” (Rev. 2:11).
2. “The same shall drink of the wine of the wrath of God, which is poured out without mixture into the cup of his indignation; and he SHALL BE TORMENTED WITH FIRE AND BRIMSTONE in the presence of the holy angels, and in the presence of the Lamb: And the smoke of their torment ascendeth up for ever and ever; and they have no rest day nor night, who worship the beast and his image, and whosover receiveth the mark of his name.” (Rev. 14:10-11).
3. “And THE BEAST was taken, and with him THE FALSE PROPHET that wrought miracles before him, with which he deceived them that had received the mark of the beast, and them that worshipped his image. These BOTH WERE CAST ALIVE INTO A LAKE OF FIRE BURNING WITH BRIMSTONE.” (Rev. 19:20).
4. “And the devil that deceived them was cast into THE LAKE OF FIRE AND BRIMSTONE, WHERE THE BEAST AND THE FALSE PROPHET ARE, and shall be tormented day and night for ever and ever.” (Rev. 20:10).
5. “And death and hell were cast into THE LAKE OF FIRE. THIS IS THE SECOND DEATH.” (Rev. 20:14).
6. “And whosover was not found written in the book of life WAS CAST INTO THE LAKE OF FIRE.” (Rev. 20:15).
7. “But the fearful, and unbelieving, and the abominable, and murderers, and whoremongers, and sorcerers, and idolaters, and all liars, shall have their part IN THE LAKE WHICH BURNETH WITH FIRE AND BRIMSTONE: WHICH IS THE SECOND DEATH.” (Rev. 21:8).

The lake of fire is also known as the ‘second death’. This is the final place of burning, everlasting torment for Satan, the antichrist, the false prophet and those un-saved, un-believing souls from throughout the ages found NOT to be in the book of life, at the white throne judgement, at the end of the Millennium. The lake of fire and second death are also reserved for those deceived during the Tribulation who took the mark of the beast and worshipped him and his image.

 The evil dead are resurrected to be judged by Christ for their evil works and for their rejection of Him who offered himself for their salvation and forgiveness of their sins. As a result of their sins and judgment, they are cast into the lake of fire that represents a second death (the first death being physical body death and souls/spirits being in Hell). The evil dead are resurrected into bodies and cast into the lake of fire to be severely tormented, having no rest day or night, and are absent from a loving God and their Savior who offered himself for them.

THE GREAT IRONY IS THAT THESE PEOPLE RECEIVED EXACTLY WHAT THEY WANTED. THEY REFUSED CHRIST AND WANTED NOTHING TO DO WITH HIM, THEY WANTED TO EXIST IN ETERNITY WITHOUT COMMUNION WITH GOD AND CHRIST, ON THEIR OWN TERMS. THEY LITERALLY RECEIVED WHAT THEY ASKED FOR. THE STENCH OF THEIR PHYSICAL AND EMOTIONAL TORMENT RISES UP IN SMOKE, FOR ETERNITY.

God made both man and angels as eternal beings, hence they will exist forever in one state or another. Which state will any of us choose to exist in? The choice is up to us, and God grants us the freedom to make that choice for ourselves. For better or worse, we have no one to blame (certainly not God) except ourselves for whatever choices we make on earth.

GREAT WHITE THRONE JUDGEMENT

GREAT WHITE THRONE AND ETERNAL JUDGEMENT