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What happens to our food supply if American farmers can’t farm? ‘A Measure of Wheat for a Penny.’

Foreshadow Now, ‘Season of the End Times’:

Blog note. Jesus indicated that ‘fearful sights’ (various natural disasters) would occur leading up to the time known as the Tribulation and Great Tribulation (a combined seven year period of great destruction on earth). Although these types of things have occurred in the past for centuries and thousands of years, they could be identified as the ‘season of the times’ due to the ferociousness of these events. They would be occurring in greater intensity, severity, frequency, size, duration, scope … just like the pains that a woman experiences in labor the farther along she is in the labor process. We are in the ‘season of the times’ that comes just before the seven (7) year Tribulation/Great Tribulation period

… And great earthquakes shall be in diverse places, and famines, and pestilences; and fearful sights and great signs shall there be from heaven. (Luke 21:11).
… And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring; (Luke 21:25)
… Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken; (Luke 21:26)
… This know also, that in the last days perilous times shall come. (2 Timothy 3:1)

Jesus is giving a series of prophecies about what to look for as the age of grace comes to a close. These verses are several of many such prophecies from throughout the Bible. 2017 was the worst year in recorded history for the intensity, frequency, severity, duration and occurrence of a large number of severe natural disasters worldwide. Earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones, torrential flooding, unprecedented wildfires in unusual places, devastating droughts, excessive/scorching heat setting records everywhere, record snowfalls in Europe and Russia. Snow in the Arabia. This list can go on. Most studied Eschatologists believe these ‘fearful sights’ and massive natural disasters are all part of the ‘CONVERGENCE’ of signs that this Biblical and prophetic age is closing. Most people who study prophecy are familiar with the routine reference(s) made that these things will be like a woman having labor.

The world is fast approaching a “climate apartheid” where only the wealthy can afford basic food resources in the face of fatal droughts, famine and heatwaves, while the rest of the world suffers. Revelation 6:5-6 And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.

What happens to our food supply if American farmers can’t farm? ‘A Measure of Wheat for a Penny.’

By Danielle Wiener-Bronner, CNN Business

Updated 2:10 PM ET, Tue March 31, 2020. CNN

American farmers are concerned.

The coronavirus pandemic is posing a threat to their livelihoods, as it is for many others across the globe. But unlike some shelf-stable goods producers, farmers have very little flexibility. They’re on a strict planting and harvesting schedule and cannot ramp up or decrease production at will.

“A peach [that] is good today is not good tomorrow. That’s how quick things ripen,” Chalmers Carr told CNN Business. Carr owns and operates Titan Farms in Ridge Spring, South Carolina, where he grows peaches on around 6,200 acres, in addition to bell peppers and broccoli.

For blueberries and strawberries, he said, “if you leave them on the bush or the vine one extra day, they’re virtually worthless.” Even more forgiving crops, like bell peppers, have a short harvesting window of two to five days, Carr said.

April and May are critical planting and harvesting times for many US farmers. They need skilled laborers to work their fields, and a reliable supply chain to deliver their goods. And they don’t have any time to waste.

If farmers can’t find enough workers or if their farming practices are disrupted because of the pandemic, Americans could have less or pricier food this summer. And because international farmers and their supply chains face similar problems, we could receive fewer food imports, potentially limiting supply and driving up prices.

In recent weeks, many Americans got a scare when they walked into grocery stores and found empty shelves. Those shortages are caused by bottlenecks in the supply chain, not a lack of food, so grocery stores have been able to replenish their shelves fairly quickly.

What happens over the next several months will determine whether those disruptions become more serious.

Farmers are scrambling to solve problems as they arise, and it’s unlikely that we’ll run out of food. But this year and next, we may not see the bounty we’re accustomed to.

A foreign workforce

As efforts to contain the coronavirus pandemic limit consular services, US farmers are worried they won’t be able to hire the international workers they rely on.

“We are a sector that is very dependent upon guest workers coming into this country, particularly for the planting and harvesting of specialty crops [like] fresh fruits and vegetables,” said Chuck Conner, president and CEO of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives.

According to the USDA, in fiscal year 2005 the government distributed 48,000 H-2A visas, which grant foreign workers temporary access to the country as agricultural workers. In fiscal year 2018, that figure had quintupled to about 243,000. Because the average length of the visa stay was about five months, the agency estimates that those visas were the equivalent of 108,000 full-year positions.

The spike in the number of visa holders is “one of the clearest indicators of the scarcity of farm labor,” said the USDA.

The 2015-2016 National Agricultural Workers Survey, the most recent of its kind, found that 69% of hired farm workers interviewed for the survey were born in Mexico. Only 24% were born in the United States.

H-2A workers have been deemed essential by the government, and should be allowed to work in the United States. These workers don’t seem to be avoiding coming to the United States for fear of catching Covid-19 — the economic incentive is just too large to give up, Carr said. But workers may eventually decide it’s too risky to enter the United States.

And if they do have a hard time getting in, it’s not clear that domestic labor will be able to fill in the gap.

Labor mismatch

It might seem like there’s an obvious solution to the problem. US unemployment claims have reached unprecedented levels as businesses close their doors because of the pandemic. In the week ending March 21, initial jobless claims reached a seasonally adjusted 3.28 million — the largest number since the Department of Labor started keeping track of the claims in 1967.

People currently seeking work could find it on farms. But most of the newly unemployed are not qualified.

It’s very skilled labor,” said Tom Stenzel, president and CEO of the United Fresh Produce Association. “If you’re a peach picker, you’re very different than a strawberry picker. And the ability to handle the volume and keep up with the pace — it’s a professional job.”

People without experience could theoretically transition to agricultural work, he said. “Farmers will hire anybody that they could right now, I would bet you.” But they wouldn’t be very efficient, and could slow down farm operations, he added.

And it’s unlikely that unemployed Americans will actually seek agricultural jobs, or relocate to take that type of work. Carr said that in general, he’s found it very difficult to recruit American workers. “There was no domestic workforce for me,” he said.

“It’s tough work, out bending over, harvesting crops all day,” Stenzel said. “It’s very hard to get Americans to do that.”

Red tape

The government has been racing to adapt its ordinary procedures to this extraordinary situation, but it’s not clear that its efforts will be enough.

Adjustments and tweaks to visa processing and other protocols have been made as problems arise. In light of concerns that workers won’t be allowed into the country because they can’t have in-person interviews, the State Department is allowing consular officers to waive those interviews for some. But it’s hard to predict the bumps in the road, especially because government efforts to prevent the spread of the virus have been changing dramatically over short periods of time.

Those ad-hoc measures may be enough for now, said Carr. But if the pandemic stops domestic agricultural workers from doing their jobs over the next two or three months, US farmers will need a new influx of international employees. The current adjustments don’t offer a road map for that possibility.

Plus, farm laborers face the same threats that other essential employees do. While many Americans are instructed to stay home, they’re expected to go out to work every day. They may get sick, and be quarantined or unable to work. Or they may have to work less to take care of children or relatives. Social distancing practices may disrupt how they function, and introduce friction into their normal farming processes.

That goes for other critical employees across the supply chain, like truck drivers. It also applies to farmers in other countries: They too could get sick, quarantined, or have to stay at home to care for loved ones, and they have their own supply chain disruptions to consider.

International disruptions

Much of the fresh fruits and vegetables that are consumed in the United States are grown internationally. The FDA said last year that about 32% of fresh vegetables and 55% of fresh fruit consumed in the United States each year are imported.

That doesn’t mean that half of apples, or a third of potatoes, come from abroad. Certain fruit, like bananas, are grown almost entirely outside of the United States. And imports tend to increase or decrease depending on the time of year — you can buy fruit out of season because they’ve been grown elsewhere.

If those other countries aren’t able to produce as much as usual, Americans could see fewer fruits or vegetables out of season. And the ones that get here may be more expensive.

“Supply shortfalls would drive prices up, and yes, you’d get less,” said Andrew Muhammad, a professor of agricultural, food, and natural resource policy at the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture.

Even if international farms are not interrupted, imports may be held up because of staffing shortages at shipping ports, he said. And if ships are stalled at docks because of decreased labor, or if storage facilities aren’t emptied out to make space for new products, Muhammad added, those countries’ export markets could suffer.

Still, that doesn’t necessarily mean international markets won’t be able to meet US demand. But it does mean that producers, here and abroad, will have a hard time planning for the future.

Uncertainty ahead

Growers are “planting right now for late spring, summer,” said Ed O’Malley, vice president of supply and merchandising at Imperfect Foods, a discount grocery delivery service that sells so-called ugly produce to help prevent food waste. “They’ve gotta be wondering, ‘how many acres of lettuce or green beans do I plant?'”

Before the pandemic, demand in food service was “very predictable,” he added. But now, with restaurants closing their doors and grocery stores seeing surges in purchases, it’ll be harder for farmers to know how much they’ll be able to sell and to whom.

“For a grower to go ahead and plant 2,000 acres when he’s really only going to need 1,200, boy, that’s a very expensive proposition,” O’Malley said.

The inability to plan could exacerbate the country’s food waste problem, and make it harder for the food insecure to eat.

It will take grocery stores some time to readjust to changes in demand. Prices for some staples, such as eggs, have surged as demand far outstrips supply. And some US food banks “reported a sharp decrease from food retail donors due to the stockpiling that has occurred throughout the country,” Blake Thompson, chief supply chain officer at Feeding America, a national network of about 200 food banks and 60,000 food pantries and meal programs, told CNN Business in an email.

But some food has been diverted successfully from one venue to another. Baldor, in New York City, generally sells food to restaurants, schools and other food service outlets. Now, it is offering delivery to individuals. Imperfect Foods was able to accdept food meant for airlines, said company co-founder Ben Chesler. “We’ve seen lots of offers come in [from] companies that have been made for food service.”

Between the disruptions, uncertainty and shocks to the global supply chain, the situation is unstable but not hopeless, experts say.

“You can’t throw too much of a worse scenario at producers than what they currently have,” said Conner of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives.

“Our system has responded well. And I think that’s going to continue,” he added. “I know that’s a bold prediction because the world is being turned upside down here, and I recognize that. But I have great confidence in this system’s ability to respond and get food to the people where they need it.”

Jesus Christ’s Offer of Salvation:

The ABCs of Salvation through Jesus Christ (the Lamb)

A. Admit/Acknowledge/Accept that you are sinner. Ask God’s forgiveness and repent of your sins.

. . . “For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God.” (Romans 3:23).

. . . “As it is written, There is none righteous, no, not one.” (Romans 3:10).

. . . “If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is not in us.” (1 John 1:8).

B. Believe Jesus is Lord. Believe that Jesus Christ is who He claimed to be; that He was both fully God and fully man and that we are saved through His death, burial, and resurrection. Put your trust in Him as your only hope of salvation. Become a son or daughter of God by receiving Christ.

. . . “That whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have eternal life. For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life. For God sent not his son into the world to condemn the world; but that the world through him might be saved. (John 3:15-17). For whosoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved.” (Romans 10:13).

C. Call upon His name, Confess with your heart and with your lips that Jesus is your Lord and Savior.

. . . “That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved. For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation.” (Romans 10:9-10).

. . . “If we say that we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is not in us. If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins, and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness. If we say that we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is not in us.” (John 1:8-10).

. . . “And he is the propitiation for our sins: and not for ours only, but also for the sins of the whole world. (John 2:2).

. . . “In this was manifested the love of god toward us, because that God sent his only begotten Son into the world, that we might live through him. And we have seen and do testify that the Father sent the Son to be the Saviour of the world. Whosoever shall confess that Jesus is the Son of God, God dwelleth in him, and he in God.” (1 John 4:9, 14-15).

. . . “But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Much more then, being now justified by his blood, we shall be saved from wrath through him. For if, when we were enemies, we were reconciled to God by the death of his Son, much more, being reconciled, we shall be saved by his life.” (Romans 5:8-10).

. . . “For the wages of sin is death; but the gift of God is eternal life through Jesus Christ our Lord.” (Romans 6:23).

. . . “Jesus saith unto them, I am the way, the truth, and the life, no man cometh unto the Father, but by me.” (John 14:6).

. . . “For I am not ashamed of the gospel of Christ: for it is the power of God unto salvation to everyone that believeth.” (Romans 1:16).

. . . “Neither is there salvation in any other: for there is none other name under heaven given among men, whereby we must be saved.” (Acts: 4:12).

. . . “Who will have all men to be saved, and to come unto the knowledge of the truth for there is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus.” (1 Timothy 2:4-6).

. . . “For God did not appoint us to suffer wrath but to receive salvation through our Lord Jesus Christ.” (1 Thessalonians 5:9).

. . . “But as many as received him, to them gave the power to become the sons of God, even to them that believe on his name.” (John 1:12).

True Church / Bride of Christ Spared from God’s Wrath:

 Romans 5:8-10. “But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us. Much more then, being now justified by his blood, we shall be saved from wrath through him. For if, when we were enemies, we were reconciled to God by the death of his Son, much more, being reconciled, we shall be saved by his life.”

Romans 12:19Dearly beloved, avenge not yourselves, but rather give place unto wrath: for it is written, Vengeance is mine; I will repay, saith the Lord.

1 Thessalonians 1:10. And to wait for his Son from heaven, whom he raised from the dead, even Jesus, which delivered us from the wrath to come.

1 Thessalonians 5:9. For God hath not appointed us to wrath, but to obtain salvation by our Lord Jesus Christ,

Romans 8:35. Who shall separate us from the love of Christ? shall tribulation, or distress, or persecution, or famine, or nakedness, or peril, or sword?

Jeremiah 30:7. Alas! for that day is great, so that none is like it: it is even the time of Jacob’s trouble, but he shall be saved out of it.

Revelation 3:10 Because thou hast kept the word of my patience, I also will keep thee from the hour of temptation, which shall come upon all the world, to try them that dwell upon the earth.

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