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India Scraps Kashmir’s Long-Held Autonomy, Escalating Tensions

Rumours and Threats of Wars:

Matthew 24:6-8 And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places. All these are the beginning of sorrows.

Mark 13:7-8 And when ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars, be ye not troubled: for such things must needs be; but the end shall not be yet. For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be earthquakes in divers places, and there shall be famines and troubles: these are the beginnings of sorrows.

India Scraps Kashmir’s Long-Held Autonomy, Escalating Tensions

Archana Chaudhary and Abhijit Roy Chowdhury. Bloomberg•August 5, 2019

(Bloomberg) — India has revoked the special constitutional status of Kashmir in a move that’s drawn protests in parliament and risks worsening its already fraught security relationship with rival Pakistan in the disputed region.

It took Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government just a couple of hours to erase seven decades of autonomous state government in Kashmir, which analysts say is aimed at integrating a region at the center of its acrimonious relationship with Pakistan.

President Ram Nath Kovind signed the law and Minister for Home Affairs, Amit Shah, announced the government’s plan in parliament soon after. Lawmakers are now debating a proposal to split the state in two — Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh.

Under Article 370 of the constitution, the state of Jammu and Kashmir enjoyed complete autonomy and the state legislature was free to draft its own laws except in the areas of communications, defense, finance, and foreign affairs, while Indian citizens were prohibited from purchasing land in the state.

It was especially drafted in the 1950s after the kingdom of Kashmir agreed to join the Indian republic. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party had pledged to scrap the article in its electoral manifestos of 2014 and 2019.

“Article 370 should have been revoked much earlier,” Shah told the parliament. “But it needed political will. And the Modi government has the political will to do it.”

In the lead up to the controversial step, prominent political leaders in Indian-administered Kashmir were placed under house arrest and the Indian paramilitary forces deployed thousands of extra troops across the valley in one of the most widespread security crackdowns in recent years.

India also evacuated thousands of tourists, students and pilgrims — citing terrorist threats — and restricted phone and Internet services over the last 48 hours.

The move goes beyond the right to buy land or live in Kashmir, Khalid Shah, Delhi-based fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, said by phone. “It shows that from now on the opinion of people won’t matter. People’s opinion about their own land doesn’t matter,” Shah said. “That’s a scary situation for any democracy. My sense is that this will lead to long term political consequences and will prolong the conflict.”

India’s benchmark stock index S&P BSE Sensex dropped 1.1% to the lowest since March 8, while the rupee is poised for its biggest drop in a year.

Regional Crisis’

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan warned in a tweet Sunday that India’s “new aggressive actions” had “the potential to blow up into a regional crisis.”

In a statement released Monday, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a strong condemnation of India’s actions and pledged exercise all possible options to counter what it described as New Delhi’s “illegal steps.” India-controlled Kashmir is an internationally-recognized disputed territory, Pakistan said, and no unilateral step by India can change this.

Pakistan’s parliamentarians are set to hold a joint sitting on Tuesday to discuss the deteriorating situation in Kashmir and India’s legislative steps to change the status of the valley, according to state-run Radio Pakistan.

The Indian Army said Monday it was on standby for any contingency in Kashmir. The official, who asked not to be identified citing rules, said while no additional soldiers had been sent to the region, central security forces had added an extra 10,000 personnel, bringing the total number to 45,000.

Meanwhile, the decision to place two of Kashmir’s former chief ministers, Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, under house arrest at midnight further added to a sense of crisis in the state.

“I believe I’m being placed under house arrest from midnight tonight & the process has already started for other mainstream leaders,” Abdullah tweeted.

India’s arrest of political leaders without an explanation is “unprecedented,” Akhil Bery, South Asia analyst at risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said in an email.

“It has the potential to embolden Pakistan-based terrorists to begin ramping up attacks again,” said Bery. “This also fits into Imran Khan’s narrative that India is the one responsible for escalating the tensions — he managed to convince President Trump of that and this is only going to support his message further.”

The Ministry of External Affairs did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the political crackdown.

Last week, India rebuffed U.S. President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate between the south Asian nation and Pakistan, which have long-running tensions centering on Kashmir, an area in the Himalayas claimed in full — and ruled in part — by both. In late February, Modi’s government authorized airstrikes against Pakistan in response to a terrorist attack in Kashmir. The extra troop deployment came as thousands of devotees are on an annual pilgrimage to the Amarnath cave in the state that houses a shrine to the Hindu god Shiva. Since then, the pilgrimage has been curtailed and the devotees were asked to return home

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